Revel in your pricier Easter eggs – specialists forecast a potential doubling in chocolate costs by the following year

By Easter Monday, Cadbury alone will have sold more than 450m chocolate eggs and 15 million bunnies in Australia and New Zealand, despite the soaring price of the festive treats.

Prices are up about 10 per cent this year compared to 2023 with a bag of small chocolate eggs going up from $5 to $5.50.

But chocoholics should be warned that a much higher price hike is on the way.

This year’s haul of sweet treats has been saved from the full effect of cocoa futures reaching more than $15,300 a tonne because Easter eggs are made up to a year in advance before they land on supermarket shelves. 

But as production continues on next year’s Easter treats, the price shock will be factored in long before they’re in stock for next year’s celebrations. 

Easter egg prices are up about 10 per cent this year but there is a far higher price hike coming next year. A woman is pictured holding a chocolate Easter bunny

Cocoa future prices – an agreement between to pay a certain price for at a set date – in the London exchange rose by about 300 per cent in the past year and around 237 per cent in New York.

RaboBank expects cocoa prices to fall and settle at around $9,000 a tonne – 124 per cent above the average price over the last five years.

RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott said there had been a reduction in cocoa production in the African countries Ivory Coast and Ghana – where 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa beans are grown. 

‘It is a combination of a range of agricultural and other factors, including adverse weather conditions, ageing trees and disease in crops,’ she told the Australian Financial Review.

‘There are also other challenges for growers, including increasing sustainability regulations and requirements – including in import markets – which are also limiting supply growth.’

Australian chocolatier Haigh’s doesn’t expect prices to remain at record levels, but believes cocoa will likely settle at a much higher cost.

‘I don’t want to overstate the shift, but the sustainability of the industry means it will move up,’ operating officer Peter Millard said.

‘In the short term, Haigh’s has most of our year-ahead contracts locked in, but if you need to buy on the spot market, we do know that the industry warehouses have very little uncommitted stock.’

The ever increasing prices have not lowered sales.

‘We’re continuing to see good growth categories. It’s an affordable moment of joy,’  Darren O’Brien, Australian president of Mondelez International, which owns Cadbury, said. 

This year’s crop of chocolate treats has been saved from the full effect of cocoa futures reaching more than $15,300 a tonne because Easter eggs are made so far in advance.  A woman is pictured looking at Easter eggs and bunnies

He said Easter eggs have bucked the trend of consumers cutting back despite cost of living pressures. 

‘The relative cost of being able to snack is one that tends to be pretty robust in any sort of economic circumstances,’ Mr O’Brien told the Sydney Morning Herald. 

ANZ bank’s head of agribusiness insights Michael Whitehead explained how cocoa futures have a knock-on effect on chocolate prices.

‘The cocoa that’s gone into the chocolate that is on the shelves of retailers and supermarkets right now has been purchased quite a while ago,’ he said.

‘One bad crop (isn’t) the end of the world, but because they had bad weather last year too, the farmers didn’t get enough money to buy fertiliser, so that hit things even more.

‘If (the cocoa price) stays high for a while, it’s pretty reasonable to expect the (cost of) your chocolate block will go up.’

Ms Piggott said over the past year a lot of chocolate products had seen price rises or ‘shrinkflation’, where the price stayed the same but the size of the bar was lowered.