Following the pandemic, immigration experienced a notable surge as pent-up demand from prior border closures was unleashed, reaching a high of over 550,000 in the 2022-23 period. However, this trend has been gradually declining.
Recent data forecasts net overseas migration to reach 295,000 in 2025-26 and 245,000 in 2026-27. These figures exceed previous projections, which estimated 260,000 for the current financial year and anticipated 225,000 for 2026-27.
By the decade’s close, migration is expected to taper to around 225,000 annually, aligning closer to pre-pandemic numbers.
The unexpected rise in net migration presents a challenge to the government’s initiatives to lower these figures. This increase is largely attributed to a slower departure rate of migrants on temporary visas.
As noted in the budget reports, “Arrivals of New Zealand citizens are also anticipated to continue strongly, a reflection of Australia’s comparatively appealing labor market conditions.”
The government says its budget measures will put “downward pressure” on the figures.
They include the extension of a ban on temporary migrants buying established residential property until 2029, new targets for the permanent migration program and tweaks to working holiday visas.
The government says the permanent program will prioritise onshore applications, with 70 per cent of the 185,000 places going to skilled immigrants rather than family reunion visas.
“The government will reform the Working Holiday Maker (WHM) program to better control numbers, reduce barriers to work, provide a fairer allocation of WHM visas, and support Australia’s national interests,” the budget papers state.
It’s also doubled the visa application charge for temporary graduate visas, adding an estimated $1.2 billion to Treasury coffers over five years, but the papers don’t reference any estimated impact on numbers.
Immigration has been a hot topic in recent years, with a particular focus on housing and infrastructure levels struggling to keep up.Â
“Australia is and should always be a country where we judge you by who you are, not where you’re from,” he said.
“People say they love Australia and I do, and almost everybody on this continent does, modern Australia is what they’re loving, and we are a multicultural nation.”
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor last month promised to crack down on migration, introducing an “Australian values” test, the reintroduction of temporary protection visas, more funding to deport people and an unspecified cut to overall migration.
Incoming One Nation MP David Farley initially said a net overseas migration figure of 306,000 was probably not too high before later clarifying “One Nation will cap immigration at 130,000 per year”.
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