Amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine might soon have the chance to bolster its defenses by manufacturing one of the “world’s best missiles.” However, experts caution that this potential development could provide significant benefits only in the long term for the embattled nation.
During an overnight session at a NATO summit, U.S. President Donald Trump extended an offer that could be pivotal for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. He proposed granting Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, a move that holds strategic significance.
Patriot missiles stand out as one of the few weapons systems capable of effectively countering Russia’s formidable assaults. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long sought these missiles and, more recently, the license to produce them domestically.
The urgency of Ukraine’s need for advanced defense systems is underscored by recent events: Russian ballistic missile strikes have caused the tragic loss of dozens of Ukrainian lives over the past week and inflicted extensive damage on vital infrastructure.
Although President Trump’s proposal could offer a crucial lifeline to Ukraine, it faces potential challenges. Some argue that the timing might not align with Ukraine’s immediate needs in their conflict with Russia. Balancing this offer with his relationships with other world leaders further complicates the scenario.
One of the world’s best missiles
Patriot missiles are a little over 5m in length, 40cm in diameter, and have a range of 70km, the Associated Press reports.
The missiles are fired from a battery that costs approximately $US10 million ($14.4 million) to manufacture and can require as many as 90 troops to operate and maintain it.
Oleksandra Molloy, a senior lecturer in aviation safety at the University of New South Wales, told SBS News that the Patriots are widely regarded as among the world’s most capable air defence missiles.
“They are very effective at downing incoming ballistic missiles, which fly at much higher altitudes and are much faster than other types of missiles or drones,” she said.
The US has previously provided these missiles to Ukraine for its defence, but intelligence suggests the country now has limited means to defend against Russian strikes.
Douglas Lute, a former US ambassador to NATO, said it’s likely Ukraine has run out of defensive missiles, leaving it vulnerable.
“Recently, none of the incoming Russian ballistic missiles has been downed. That suggests that Ukraine is essentially out of its Patriot air defence system,” he told ABC Radio National on Thursday morning.
When asked if the United States would send additional Patriot interceptors immediately, Trump said “some” could be sent immediately and that he thought Ukraine could begin to produce its own quickly.
“We have Patriots, but we don’t have that many. We need them for ourselves too,” he said.
When could new missiles be made?
Lute estimated that it takes the US around two years to produce the defensive missiles, saying that while Ukraine has a strong defence industry, manufacturing Patriots could be a challenge.
“The factory today doesn’t exist in Ukraine. The workforce is not in place. And of course, any production in Ukraine will face some of the same supply chain challenges as American manufacturers,” he said.
“So, this is good news, but it’s good news only down the road.”
Molloy added that since weapons technology is constantly evolving, the Patriot missiles could also become outdated by the time they are made in Ukraine.
“Russia is continuously upgrading its missiles and making them faster and more manoeuvrable,” she said.
“And that has led to a reduced rate of interception in recent engagements.”
Any manufacturing of the Patriots would likely require approval from the US license holders, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, adding a further barrier to future Ukrainian-made missiles.
SBS News has contacted both companies for comment.
Trump, Putin and the war in Ukraine
Jessica Genauer, an expert in international conflict and international relations at the University of NSW, told SBS News that the missile offer is also symbolic.
“The US wants to show it still supports Ukraine and is broadly on their side,” she said.
“However, it was a fairly off-the-cuff comment from Trump, and we will have to see what, if anything, comes of it.”
When asked how the offer could affect Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Genauer said it’s not a “major turning point”.
Trump tends to be quite supportive of whoever he is with at any given time, she said, and, in this case, at the NATO summit, he wanted to be seen as backing Europe.
“I fully expect that at the same time, Trump still maintains his attachment to what he sees as quite a positive relationship with President Putin of Russia,” she said.
“He will keep talking to Putin and most likely still holds an aspiration to try to influence Putin to get to some kind of conclusion to this conflict under a Trump presidency.”
Genauer added that Trump could also be looking to shift focus away from the “crumbling” US-Iran ceasefire deal by announcing support for Ukraine.
“Trump does not like to look weak or unsuccessful to his European counterparts,” she said.
“So I think this is also partly Trump pivoting away from a focus on US-Iran relations and going back to another very serious high-level ongoing conflict, which is that of the war between Russia and Ukraine.”
As for Trump’s sometimes “tumultuous” relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the latter would be “grateful” for the missile technology, Genauer said.
However, Ukraine will likely need at least a temporary cessation of hostilities with Russia soon if it hopes to have the capacity to produce Patriots.
“Ukraine does not have an endless timeline to continue fighting this war; within probably one to two years, there will need to be some kind of agreement around stopping the war,” she said.
If licensing is approved and Ukraine can manufacture the missiles, the benefits to its defence would be in the medium- to long-term, Genauer estimated.
“Having a really good air defence system will be critical for Ukraine, not just during this hot phase of this conflict, but probably for at least seven to 10 years after the conflict concludes.”