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Key Points
- Warmer days and nights than usual are predicted around Australia this Autumn.
- Below-average rainfall is expected for northern regions, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
- Warmer conditions are expected to persist as summer’s duration lengthens, according to an expert.
Murray’s farm predominantly operates a rain-fed cropping system, which relies on rainfall for water.
“If they get established too quickly, too early, that’ll put them at greater risk later in the year. So we could be seeing some people delay their sowing by a little bit just because of that.”
Warmer autumn predicted for Australia
“It’s in part because the average that’s used for these forecasts is a recent historical average,” he said.
King noted that predicting seasonal outlooks at this time of year can be more challenging than in the spring.
“This is due to the effects of global heating on weather patterns.”
On February 15th, the BOM forecast predicts an 80% chance of higher than average temperatures for most of Australia. Credit: Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Will it rain in autumn, and is El Niño still here?
“El Niño has its biggest effect on Australia in spring,” King explained.
“We expect the now-weakening El Niño event to have contributed to higher than normal air temperatures since mid-2023, and to continue to contribute to higher than normal air temperatures.
Is extreme weather on the horizon?
“However, when storms do occur, they could have severe storm characteristics due to the excess heat available.”
“We are now in late summer and we are more likely to experience more heat waves across some parts of the continent. Additionally, there could be a risk of extreme heat events in early autumn,” he said.
Will warmer autumns become the new norm?
“We will still have cold spells in the future as well. It’s just that they’ll be less frequent and less intense.”
“This does not mean that there will be no cooler autumns, just that the balance is tipped in favour of warmer autumns.”
