France Calm Ahead Of 14th July But Reshuffle Looms

Over a week on since riots gripped much of France a sense of calm has been restored, but public and political debates are now ongoing.

At the Aix economic summer-school (Americans should think of it as Aspen/Miliken for the French economic policy elite) there was a concerted effort by government officials to bring a sense of ordered perspective to the outlook, and privately many of them expressed both relief that the riots had not deteriorated and frustration that a country that is highly redistributive economically can still have such sensitive cultural-political fissures.

While there was much ‘gossip’ at Aix regarding the performance of the government, readers should take hints of a reshuffle (and change of prime minister) with a high degree of seriousness. Elizabeth Borne the current prime minister is not perceived to have performed well since the start of this year and it is widely expected that a prime minister with a more defined public persona (Interior Minister Darmanin might be too much of a provocation) is required.

One could spend a great deal of time trying to make sense of the forces that have driven the protests but from a policy point of view there are two elements worth noting.

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One is that politically, France is moving towards the right, like much of the rest of Europe (Spain, Italy, Greece and now the Netherlands where the government of Mark Rutte has fallen). Surveys in newspapers like Le Monde pointed to a greater desire for more punitive measures towards rioters and more public order measures such as more police ‘on the streets’. There have not been any formal opinion polls since the riots but ‘soft’ commentary favours a move towards the right and in general left wing politicians like Jean-Luc Melanchon are not perceived to have performed well.

The second, related point is that at least for the right, the 2027 presidential election has started and we are watching the extent to which the main runners on the right (Ciotti, Wauquiez, Philippe) will succumb to the temptation to become more nasty on issues like identity and immigration. Notably Eric Zemmour on the far right has not shied away from this, whilst Marine Le Pen has generally said little (her effective deputy Jordan Bardella is much more active in the media) but functions as a far right banner.

Internationally, the images of the riots are damaging for France, and take the allure off its prestige and foreign policy projection. Emmanuel Macron admitted as much, saying such a spectacle would likely not have taken place in Germany.

As France, like much of the rest of Europe, moves to the right politically, the focus is on the 14^th July, and not just on the public mood but signs of a change in policy and government composition in France.