Tampa Bay Buccaneers Destined for Rebuild As Baker Mayfield Appears To Be Favorite To Start

It feels like ages ago that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl.

A little over two years removed from winning Super Bowl LV over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buccaneers appear to already be entering a rebuild mode.

While the organization and general manager Jason Licht have been hesitant to use that term following Tom Brady’s retirement, it’s hard to envision this current incarnation of the Buccaneers — one that will be led by either journeyman Baker Mayfield or the inexperienced Kyle Trask — emerging as a playoff contender.

According to the latest report from ESPN’s Jeff Darlington, the veteran Mayfield appears to have the inside track on Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback job.

“In general, we’re hearing the words that have been used to describe Baker Mayfield since the start of his career,” says Darlington. “The positive ones, like moxie and leadership. And those are the things so far in Tampa it feels like could earn him the starting job. There is just definitely a little bit more of a vibe when I talk to people about these two quarterbacks, that Baker seems to be imposing himself. Now, Kyle Trask is still in the hunt. There is no determination on who the starter will be in this quarterback competition. But at this point, it does feel that Baker is imposing himself over the competition.”

The report isn’t exactly surprising. For all of Mayfield’s faults and shortcomings over the years, he is an experienced quarterback with 69 starts under his belt during his five-year career. Furthermore, he’s led a franchise — the Cleveland Browns — to a playoff victory, something they hadn’t experienced since the 1994 season.

However, while Mayfield appears to be the favorite to win the starting job over the younger Trask, what the Buccaneers’ current quarterback situation reveals is how far down the totem pole the franchise has fallen in a matter of months.

A little more than a year prior, the Buccaneers were one Matthew Stafford game-winning drive away from advancing to the NFC Championship Game. In other words, they were still a bonafide contender at the conclusion of the 2021 season.

That all disappeared during the 2022 season as Tampa Bay struggled to hold off mediocre competition in the NFC South for the division title, as they barely made it into the postseason with an 8-9 record and with Brady single-handedly willing the team into the playoffs.

“We’re still trying to restock and eventually build another championship team,” Licht said at the NFL Combine. “It’s just going to look a little different and be done a little bit differently.”

While the Buccaneers maintain they’re merely reloading and still competing for a division title, the more likely scenario is Tampa Bay fizzling out during the 2023 season and landing a top pick for next year’s draft.

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If the third-year Trask fails to beat out Mayfield — who is on a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million — that means the Buccaneers are still looking for their franchise quarterback.

Why is that important? Because the Buccaneers can then use that top draft pick to select an actual franchise quarterback — think USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye —rather than relying on an underwhelming quarterback competition between a journeyman and a former second-round pick who may not be good enough to even start.

If Mayfield does emerge as the starting quarterback, can we really envision a veteran quarterback who has never been more than a “solid” starter to lead this team to a better record than Brady did last season? Especially when factoring in this year’s squad is a worse version of last season’s team?

The NFC South as a whole is better. The New Orleans Saints will no longer be held back by quarterback play after acquiring former Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr. Meanwhile, both the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers — two teams who came close to unseating the Buccaneers for division supremacy last season — will enter the season with more experience and stability, with the latter featuring No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young at quarterback.

“In the short term, we still want to win and compete for this division and we think we can,” Licht continued to say at the NFL Combine. “We just don’t want to do it (while) sacrificing our long-term plans…I think we can find a way to do both at the same time.”

The Buccaneers may be giving good PR answers when it comes to their expectations for the upcoming season. But there’s no sugarcoating it — Tampa Bay is not a contender this season. Most importantly, they’re in desperate need of a franchise quarterback following the retirement of the best ever.

According to CBS Sports’ Will Brinson’s win-loss projections on the season, he predicts the Buccaneers will finish with a 5-12 record. In fact, he only projects two teams — the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts — to finish with a worse record.

“It’s just tough to love the Buccaneers, knowing the offensive line took a massive hit, they replaced Tom Brady with Baker Mayfield and all three other teams in the division got better,” writes Brinson.

To top it off, Caesar’s Sportsbook projects the Buccaneers at a win total of 6.5 wins, the lowest of any team in the NFC South.

It might be hard for the organization and the fans to hear this, but less than three years removed from a Super Bowl win, this organization is in rebuild mode for the 2023 season.

And considering the Buccaneers can potentially land Williams or Maye with next year’s top draft pick, it’ll be worth it.