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Today and tomorrow in this space, I’ll be summarizing my 2023 batted ball-based park factors. As I do in my other analysis here, I took all batted balls and compared actual performance to projections based on the application of MLB average production to each exit speed/launch angle “bucket”. A park that didn’t impact actual projection at all would receive a 100 park factor; those that inflated projected production get a higher mark, those that deflated get a lower one.
Unlike most park factors, I use one year worth of data, not two or more. The granular nature of the data being utilized tends to smooth things out and yield very reliable results. On a year-to-year basis (2023 vs. 2022), my overall park factors had a 0.66 correlation coefficient – the same as last year. Fly ball park factors correlated even more closely (0.78). Base hit types also correlate pretty closely – particularly homers (0.74), doubles (0.55) and, yes, triples (0.52).
Don’t want to ignore the categories with lower correlation coefficients; liner (-0.11, a negative correlation for the first time ever) and grounder (0.09) park factors didn’t correlate well this time around. While that’s somewhat normal for liners, grounder park factors usually correlate much more closely. Also, as you might expect, singles park factors (0.40) didn’t correlate as well as other types of base hits, though it was the closest year-on-year correlation since 2019.
Let’s tackle the more pitcher-friendly half of the 30 MLB parks today, and move on to the hitter-friendly ones tomorrow.
#30 – Yankee Stadium (Yankees) – 87.1 Overall Park Factor, 96.7 Fly Ball (15th), 106 Home Run (10th)
Ok, so how was the 15th friendliest fly ball and 10th friendliest homer park the most pitcher-friendly park in the game? Well, it had the lowest liner (87.3) and grounder (66.9) park factors. There might be some one-year random noise in there, but consider this – doubles are a huge part of team offense, and Yankee Stadium routinely strangles two-base hits. It had an 87 doubles factor in 2023, tied for 2nd lowest in MLB, and Yankee Stadium has never had even an average doubles park factor in the 10 years I’ve been utilizing this method.
#29 – Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Orioles) – 90.3 Overall Park Factor, 79.6 Fly Ball (29th), 85 Home Run (29th)
The Orioles moved their fences in prior to the 2022 season, and the move has clearly had the desired effect. And like Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards has always limited doubles, posting an average two-base hit factor only once in the last decade, in 2019. Its 88 doubles factor this season was a sharp decline from 95 in 2022. Its triples park factor did sneak above 100 (to 107) for the first time since I began using this method.
#28 – Citi Field (Mets) – 91.5 Overall Park Factor, 87.5 Fly Ball (28th), 103 Home Run (13th)
You might be wondering at this point why all of these mid-Atlantic ball parks are at the bottom of this year’s rankings. Well, it was smoldering hot in the South this summer, and more temperate in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, and this is a zero-sum game, so the Kansas Cities and St. Louises – always at or near the bottom – have crept up a little. This is yet another park that throttles doubles production – its 83 doubles park factor was the lowest in the game in 2023, even lower than Yankee Stadium.
#27 – Progressive Field (Guardians) – 91.7 Overall Park Factor, 91.2 Fly Ball (23rd), 85 Home Run (28th)
Another atypical presence this low on the list, though Progressive Field has generally been a slightly pitcher-friendly park. It actually inflated doubles production (109), but has tended to limit singles production over the years. Its 94 singles park factor was the 3rd lowest in MLB this season, and it has had an above average singles park factor only once in the last decade – and that was 101 in 2015.
#26 – Comerica Park (Tigers) – 92.3 Overall Park Factor, 76.2 Fly Ball (30th), 90 Home Run (24th)
Comerica was the most pitcher-friendly park in the game last season, and it bounces up a bit this time around. This represents the 4th straight season that both its overall and fly ball park factors were over a standard deviation below average. Its 90 homer park factor actually represents its high-water mark since 2014 – it’s never reached league average in the decade I’ve been using this method.
#25 – Oracle Park (Giants) – 93.3 Overall Park Factor, 99.6 Fly Ball (13th), 93 Home Run (23rd)
Oracle had been one of the most extreme pitchers’ park in the game through 2019, but has been a bit more neutral since. Its 93 homer park factor is a new high. It had always reliably inflated doubles and triples, but backslid a bit in that area this season, with below average doubles (90) and triples (91) factors. It’s the first below average triples factor posted since I’ve been using this method. Its 90.9 liner factor was 2nd lowest in MLB this season.
#24 – PNC Park (Pirates) – 94.1 Overall Park Factor, 89.9 Fly Ball (24th), 81 Home Run (30th)
Another mid-Atlantic/Northeast park suppressing runs. PNC Park has posted a below-average homer park factor every year that this method has been used, though it typically has been a good park for doubles and triples. Its 113 doubles park factor tied for 3rd highest in MLB this season, and it has exceeded 100 in all but one of the last eight seasons. Only 28.4% of 100-105 mph fly balls left the yard in Pittsburgh this season, well below the MLB average of 38.1%. Similarly, its 6.5% homer rate on 95-100 mph flies fell far short of the MLB average of 11.1%.
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#23 – T-Mobile Park (Mariners) – 94.1 Overall Park Factor, 88.1 Fly Ball (27th), 105 Home Run (12th)
Here’s another run-suppressing park that does give a bit on home runs. That’s about it, though, as it hasn’t posted an above average singles or triples park factor ever, or an above average doubles park factor since 2013. It’s never posted an above average fly ball factor since I’ve been using this method and hasn’t posted an above average liner park factor since 2017. If you can’t get it out of here, good luck scoring.
#22 – Petco Park (Padres) – 94.7 Overall Park Factor, 88.2 Fly Ball (26th), 96 Home Run (18th)
Hello, marine layer. Petco has been a fairly neutral home run park over the years, though it hasn’t been above average in that regard since 2018. In three of the last five seasons, it has been absolute death to fly balls, ranking 28th in 2019 and 30th and dead last in 2022. It’s also consistently limited singles and production on ground balls (below 100 every year since 2017).
#21 – Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) – 95.3 Overall Park Factor, 101.5 Fly Ball (12th), 110 Home Run (5th)
Another stadium that will give you some homers and little else. It’s posted a below average singles park factor every year since 2013, and in 2023 it ranked 29th in that category at 93. It’s also almost impossible to hit a triple here (46 park factor in 2023, above average only once in the last decade). It also recorded the 3rd lowest ground ball park factor in the game at 85.2 this season.
#20 – Kauffman Stadium (Royals) – 96.8 Overall Park Factor, 91.8 Fly Ball (21st), 88 Home Run (25th)
Finally. Kauffman ranked 29th in fly ball park factor in both 2021 and 2022, but was outdone by quite a few others this time around. Its 91.8 fly ball park factor this season is by far the highest over the last decade. It has consistently been a fairly good park for line drives, which has kept its overall park factors closer to neutral, though they too have never reached 100 over the past decade. Its spacious alleys has made it consistently one of the most triple-friendly parks in the game.
#19 – Busch Stadium (Cardinals) – 97.1 Overall Park Factor, 93.9 Fly Ball (20th), 88 Home Run (26th)
Almost exactly the same as its cross-state brother in Kansas City. Busch has posted one above average overall park factor in the past decade (101.3 in 2015) and has arguably been even stingier than Kauffman on fly balls. Plus, Busch has been even tougher on hitters on line drives and has, unlike Kauffman, suppressed triples. 2023 snapped a five-year streak of overall park factors over a half standard deviation lower than league average.
#18 – American Family Field (Brewers) – 98.9 Overall Park Factor, 96.5 Fly Ball (16th), 111 Home Run (3rd)
Yet another park that yields more than its share of homers, but limits run-scoring overall. In the mid-2010s, Milwaukee was a hitters’ haven, but no longer. It actually competed with the Colorados and Cincinnatis for a brief period. While it has posted an above average homer park factor every season over the last decade, it now almost never posts above average singles or doubles park factors.
#17 – Oakland Coliseum (Athletics) – 99.3 Overall Park Factor, 91.7 Fly Ball (22nd), 94 Home Run (21st)
This was the highest overall park factor posted by the Coliseum over the last decade, falling just short of exactly neutral. It’s never posted an average fly ball park factor over that span, either. It’s never posted an above average singles park factor, either, while it last recorded an above average fly ball park factor way back in 2014. If the A’s actually do move to Las Vegas, there will be a seismic increase in offense that will make a considerable impact on the overall AL numbers.
#16 – Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) – 99.7 Overall Park Factor, 101.7 Fly Ball (11th), 102 Home Run (14th)
We’re getting to the truly neutral parks now. Over the years, Rogers Centre has been known to yield homers and doubles while limiting singles and triples, and that held true in 2023. Overall, it hasn’t diverged even a half standard deviation above or below average since it rated as a clear hitters’ park back in 2014. It generally has been a pretty good park for line drives, with a liner park factor under 100 only once in the last decade.
Tomorrow, the 15 most hitter-friendly ballparks of 2023.
