WASHINGTON – In a surprising turn of events, the United States military has halted its airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of relentless bombardment. This pause comes as diplomatic channels are being explored to prevent a descent into full-scale warfare.
The question remains whether this marks a significant turning point in the tense U.S-Iran relations, a conflict now in its fifth tumultuous month. President Donald Trump has vacillated between threatening additional strikes and expressing hope in continued diplomatic talks, while dismissing potential political repercussions linked to rising gas prices ahead of the midterm elections.
The situation grows even more complex with the impending visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington next week. Israel, which initially joined forces with the U.S. in launching the conflict on February 28, has been conspicuously absent from recent American operations following Iran’s effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway accounting for 20% of global oil trade.
“The Iranians understand that things might escalate if Israel decides to join the fray,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. However, Israel’s current restraint could indicate to Iran that efforts are underway to contain the conflict.
Reflecting on the situation, Singh, who formerly served as the senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush era, expressed caution in drawing conclusions about the current lull in hostilities.
“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he said. “But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”
Mediators keep pressing their diplomatic efforts
A regional official involved in the mediation efforts said that concerted diplomacy was underway and that a pause in U.S. strikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighboring countries hosting American forces was a “positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate.”
The official said that both the U.S. and Iran want to return to the interim ceasefire deal and that a compromise, which is being negotiated now, centers around having Iran run vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Iran put a chokehold on the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war began by firing on tankers and freighters. In turn, oil prices have soared during the conflict, which has been unpopular with many Americans, and could leave some Republican lawmakers vulnerable in November.
Following the signing of an interim ceasefire deal in June, a battle for control over the strait has erupted. Iran demanded that ships use a route near its coastline and said it can potentially charge fees. Ships were increasingly navigating a southern route along the coast of Oman under a U.S. overwatch operation when Iran attacked some vessels.
The U.S. renewed attacks on Iran’s coastal defenses, aiming to blunt Tehran’s ability to strike ships in the strait. The Trump administration then expanded its targets, hitting bridges and infrastructure in the south and striking deeper into the center of Iran.
Singh said the strikes appear to be an attempt to push Iran back to the negotiating table. Now, he said, “the question would be: What kind of messages, if any, is the Iranian regime sending through diplomatic channels? Have those messages changed? Do they seem more eager to return to talks?”
Among the challenges the U.S. faces is the fractured leadership in Iran, with different factions vying for control, Singh said, something that Trump administration officials have also pointed to. The people in charge in Iran may worry that compromising with the U.S. will be seen as weakness and could loosen their grip on power.
Whatever the case, both the U.S. and Iran need the strait to reopen for their own economic reasons.
“But they have very different conceptions of under what conditions, under whose control,” Singh said. “So we have to get to some kind of stable equilibrium on those questions before you’re going to see a longer period of quiet. I think this effort to negotiate with words and also to negotiate with force is going to continue until we reach that equilibrium.”
Trump issues threats but also talks up diplomacy
Despite the lull in fighting, tensions are high in the region.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels said Saturday that they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi airstrikes on the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeida. The Iran-backed rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military also is enforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying it disabled a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the vessel tried to violate the blockade and ignored warnings.
Trump also has kept up the threats against Iran even as he spotlighted diplomacy. Asked about his exit strategy Friday, Trump said there are two ways.
“You can just keep doing exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Or we can negotiate with them, which we’re also doing right now.”
While Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is “ready yet” to make a deal, he also asserted that “I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason.”
Trump met Friday with top national security aides to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should maintain the current course or escalate military attacks, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. No U.S. strikes occurred overnight in Iran after 13 consecutive nights.
Trump insisted Friday that he was “not in a hurry” to wrap things up because of the approaching elections, in which voters, angry about high food and gasoline prices, could vote his Republican Party out of control of Congress.
“Despite what everyone says about the election, I’m not in a hurry,” he said. “We have to do it right. Elections take care of themselves.”
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Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report.
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