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Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s numbers have been improving over the past week as the Iowa primary races draw closer. While Haley has been trailing in the polls up to this point in primary season, her support has surged to the point where she now appears to be posing a threat to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has been in second place since he announced his candidacy.
A recent survey showed Haley closely trailing DeSantis with only days left until the Iowa Caucus.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average, Trump leads the GOP field in Iowa with 51.6 percent support. DeSantis follows at 18 percent support, while Haley closely trails at 17.1 percent.
“It would always be great for someone to outperform expectations in Iowa, and right now Trump’s expectations are a resounding win,” said Matthew Bartlett, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist.
GOP strategists say New Hampshire and Haley’s home state of South Carolina will likely be more important to her path forward, as polls show Haley with a stronger lead over DeSantis.
Even better for Haley is the latest RealClearPolling average, showing that she is slightly leading the Florida governor at 16.6 percent to 16.4 percent.
According to members of Team Haley, the candidate is hoping to pull off a powerful performance in Iowa. Her objective is to make a strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire instead of trying to outright win the races, which would be nearly impossible given former President Donald Trump’s healthy lead over the rest of the field.
“If [Trump] does not break 50 percent, that’s going to be significant, and where Nikki comes in and how close is going to be critical,” Bartlett said. “If she can make this a competitive race at the start here in New Hampshire and give Donald Trump a shock, that shock therapy to the campaign could ultimately change the dynamic of this race and make it much more competitive coming out of New Hampshire.”
Haley hinted at this dynamic last week in New Hampshire when she said the state would “correct” Iowa’s results. Her critics were quick to pounce on Haley over the gaffe, which could hurt her chances in Iowa.
Performing well in Iowa and New Hampshire could help Haley gain enough traction in South Carolina, her home state, to possibly pull off an upset. It appears that this is what her campaign is hoping for, even though such an outcome remains a long shot.
Still, Haley’s campaign could be focused more on playing the long game rather than achieving immediate results, which is smart given how large Trump’s lead is. She seems to be banking on the idea that she can gradually build a narrative of being a better alternative to Trump and appealing to Republican voters who want a fresh face or possibly a more traditional conservative standard-bearer. However, it is worth noting that this seems to be the strategy of most of the candidates who are performing well in the polls.
The road ahead for Haley will be anything but smooth. While she has gained favor with a segment of the conservative voting base, her reputation for supporting an interventionist foreign policy has been an albatross around her neck, especially when it comes to her support for Ukraine. She is still viewed by many as a relic of the neocon establishment, which has been roundly repudiated by the populist elements in the GOP. Regardless of her strengths and weaknesses, one thing is clear: Haley’s campaign has its work cut out for it.
