Politico reports there is trouble brewing for Vice President JD Vance regarding his stance on Israel. According to insiders, some pro-Israel donors within the GOP have expressed dissatisfaction with his position on a ceasefire agreement with Iran. This stance, coupled with his outspoken criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration, has not sat well with these supporters who were steadfast backers of the party during Donald Trump’s presidency. One donor remarked, “There’s noticeable unrest among pro-Israel Republicans, both Christians and Jews. The concern is pervasive, and it might be even more serious than it appears.”
It’s crucial to consider that Politico has its own set of biases. Known as a mainstream media outlet with a leftward tilt, Politico is often critical of figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, and the broader MAGA movement. Their stance on Israel has also been scrutinized. Therefore, this report could be seen as playing into their strategy to provoke discord among their perceived adversaries.
Even with this backdrop, the article serves a purpose beyond the immediate controversy. It opens a discussion on the race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The anticipation surrounding JD Vance’s potential candidacy is already stirring. He appears to be a strong contender, yet history and past elections like that of 2016 remind us that political dynamics are inherently unpredictable. As witnessed by former Vice President Mike Pence, securing support from influential figures, including Donald Trump, is never a certainty in the political arena.
Nevertheless, it is also a good article for me to use as a jumping-off point to discuss the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Vice President JD Vance is almost certainly running for president. If he runs, he is the clear favorite for the nomination. But there are no guarantees in politics, as 2016 showed. And as former Vice President Mike Pence can attest, Vance can’t be secure about backing from President Trump.
As I have written before, a good comparison for the 2028 GOP primary race is the 1988 GOP presidential race. That was the last time that a Republican vice president sought to follow his two-term president into the White House.
Let’s look at the polling landscapes, where the two vice presidents are almost identical. In July of 1986, Gallup showed that Vice President George H. W. Bush had 41 percent support, while then-Senate GOP leader Bob Dole had 8 percent, then-Congressman Jack Kemp had 3 percent, and religious journalist Pat Robertson had 6 percent. Today, the RCP average has Vice President Vance at 40.3 percent support, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20 percent, Donald Trump Jr. at 14 percent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 7.1 percent, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 3.3 percent.
For unknown reasons, the media persists in measuring Don Jr., who has explicitly said he is not running and supports Vance.
Of course, there are some substantial differences between the two vice presidents. In 1988, Bush was a two-term vice president, who had been the runner-up in the 1980 presidential race, and who also had had an extensive political career. Bush was a member of the establishment faction of the GOP, but as vice president to President Reagan, he had the silent-but-important support of his president and, therefore, had a strong appeal to the conservative Republican faction. Those two factions were the most powerful, with the others being the social conservatives, the liberal Republicans, and a tiny libertarian group led by Ron Paul.
Vance is a one-term vice president who was barely known before being selected by Donald Trump. Importantly, he belongs to the restrainer faction of the GOP, which is the smallest group of Republicans, behind the establishment faction, the conservatives, and the MAGA hawks. And the restrainers are themselves further divided into the MAGA doves and the libertarians, led by Rand Paul.
The only real major advantage Vance has over Bush is that Vance is a charismatic candidate who is an excellent speaker, unlike the more tongue-tied Bush.
But, sometimes, well-spoken politicians may talk too much.