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Throughout my years of following presidential election year politics, I’ve never understood the efficacy of third-party candidates, meaning I have a difficult time believing that any of these people truly believe they have a genuine chance of winning the presidency. If true, it would suggest that the real goal of third-party candidates is to influence an election — in favor of one major-party nominee or the other.
This is precisely where we find ourselves in 2024.
The latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll showed former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by seven points in a one-on-one match-up, 48 percent to 41 percent. When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was added to a hypothetical 2024 ballot, Trump’s lead over Biden rose slightly — to eight points.
According to the poll, it turns out the more independent candidates added to a hypothetical ballot, the better Trump does —and the larger his lead over Biden.
When independent candidate Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein were added to the hypothetical ballot, along with Kennedy, Trump’s lead over Biden increased to 11 points — 42 percent to 31 percent.
Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
So, let’s think this through for a minute.
Per the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll results, the greater the number of independent candidates on the 2024 presidential ballot, the better Trump does. Given that it’s safe to assume that RFK Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein would prefer Biden’s reelection over Trump’s return to the White House — assuming, of course, that none of the three wins the election — why do they stay in the race, knowing that the more state ballots they manage to make, the worse it is for Biden?
Here’s part of the reason — which still doesn’t answer the above question:
Nearly two-thirds of voters in the poll said the country “needs another choice” this year if Biden and Trump end up as their parties’ respective nominees. And more than half — or 55 percent — said they’d consider an “independent moderate candidate” in that case.
Majorities in the poll also expressed worries about Biden’s age and doubts about his fitness to serve if elected to another four years in the Oval Office, with 51 percent saying they think Biden is “getting worse” as commander in chief.
The president’s campaign has worked to shrug off those concerns, projecting confidence in the incumbent’s record and pitching Trump, the GOP front-runner, as a threat to democracy.
“Considering” voting for an “independent moderate candidate” and voting for one — assuming such a candidate makes your state’s ballot — are far from synonymous. So again, I don’t get it — not when it comes down to go-time.
Final Thoughts
Following Donald Trump’s blowout win in the Iowa caucuses and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s announcement on Sunday that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing the former president, the Republican Party has begun to close ranks around Trump — save for Nikki Haley — and at this point, the 45th president looks like he’ll also be the 47th.
At the other extreme, Biden’s unorganized, no-message, gaffe-filled 2024 campaign continues to sputter on fumes, leading an increasing number of Democrats to frantically sound the alarm in public, which increases the probability that the Democrat Party will kick the embattled president to the curb before November — with Biden likely being allowed to bow out “for health reasons” — and install a candidate the party believes can deny Trump a return to the White House.
What say you?
