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It is Donald Trump versus Nikki Haley in New Hampshire’s Republican primary on Tuesday.
But the latest J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com poll shows how voters also see it as a tussle for the kind of Republican Party they want.
On one side is the new breed of MAGA agitator: Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Infowars conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, and tech billionaire Elon Musk.
On the other: Traditional conservatives Sen. Mitt Romney, former congresswoman Liz Cheney, and former president George W. Bush.
The results found primary voters almost split down the middle. Some 40 preferred the new breed of rabble rouser, while 37 percent identified with the more traditional names.
Republican primary voters are split on which idea of the Republican Party they want, according to an exclusive Daily Mail/JL Partners poll
One is a populist, America First version featuring the likes of former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, while the other is a more traditional idea featuring former President George W Bush
But within that, the numbers tracked voters’ preference in the primary, and pollster James Johnson, of J.L. Partners, said it showed how Trump’s grip on the party was strengthening.
‘This split closely mirrors the headline primary contest, with 70 percent of Haley voters backing Romney, Bush and Cheney and 65 percent of Trump voters going for Carlson, Musk and Jones,’ he said.
‘Just looking at this finding alone might suggest a party narrowly torn between two radically different paths, with Haley and Trump in a close fight to determine its future.
‘The reality is that this is an illusion – New Hampshire, and indeed Nikki Haley, is an outlier, a holdout against the steady march of the GOP into the hands of the likes of Tucker, Musk and Jones.’
‘Even in the Granite State, it is only the inclusion of undeclared voters that makes it a close fight: Among registered Republicans, Romney, Bush and Cheney trail by 31% to 46%.’
Members of the tradition wing have long agitated for a showdown with the incomers brought by Trump, favoring his populist agenda married to an isolationist foreign policy.
But all the signs are that their standard bearer, Nikki Haley, who has pushed for smaller government and more aid for Ukraine, is heading to a crushing defeat.
When J.L. Partners polled 651 people in New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses, the results showed Trump leading by 51 to 41 points.
Trump and Haley see themselves as part of different parties. Trump voters overwhelming identify with Carlson, Musk and Jones, while Haley voters like Bush, Romney and Cheney
The race is a two-way battle between Haley and Trump. And it could all be over by Wednesday
When the pollsters added a sample of 200 more people after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out Sunday, it found a huge, late surge to Trump.
The final, weighted result showed Trump up by a whopping 20 points.
Former New Hampshire Republican chair Jennifer Horn said it was clear that Haley had no path to the nomination in this new party.
‘The party has changed,’ she told journalists at a Bloomberg roundtable Monday before voting started.
‘And a large … not the entire party, perhaps, but a large part of the party has really changed and they’re living in a different headspace than they used to, and she just doesn’t connect with that part of the party.’
