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Nato says Vladimir Putin’s plan to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is “dangerous and irresponsible” and a threat to Russia’s nuclear non-proliferation commitments.
Putin likened his Belarus plan on Saturday to the US stationing its weapons in Europe, insisting Russia would not violate its nuclear non-proliferation promises.
The move, while not unexpected, is one of Russia’s most pronounced nuclear signals yet and a warning to Nato over its military support for Ukraine.
Nato spokesperson Oana Lungescu said on Sunday: “Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible”.
Nato is vigilant and we are closely monitoring the situation. We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own.”
Putin’s non-proliferation pledge and his description of US weapons deployment overseas were way off the mark, she added.
Russia’s reference to Nato’s nuclear sharing is totally misleading. Nato allies act with full respect of their international commitments. Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments.
Experts said Russia’s move was significant since it had until now been proud that unlike the US, it did not deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders. It may be the first time since the mid-1990s that it has done so.
Reuters
Key events
Russia plans to complete coastal infrastructure needed to host nuclear submarines in the Pacific Ocean, TASS news agency reported on Monday.
The nuclear submarines will be capable of carrying the Poseidon nuclear-capable super torpedos first produced in January, four years after they were announced.
There are few confirmed details about the Poseidon in the public domain, but it is essentially a cross between a torpedo and a drone which can be launched from a nuclear submarine.
The torpedoes are being developed for deployment on the Belgorod and Khabarovsk nuclear submarines, TASS reported.
Russia Pacific Fleet’s ballistic nuclear missile submarine base is located on the southeastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the Russian Far East.
The Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk make up the Kamchatka Peninsula’s eastern and western coastlines.
TASS state agency reported that a new division is being formed as part of the Submarine Forces of the Pacific Fleet, which will include not only Belgorod and Khabarovsk but also other submarines.
The new special-purpose submarines will participate in solving the tasks “of strategic deterrence”.
– Reuters
With the cost of reconstruction in Ukraine projected by the World Bank to be $411bn, economist Adam Tooze has examined the changes to the Ukrainian economy that have been forced on it over the course of the invasion.
To secure ongoing support from international institutions like the International Monetary Fund, Tooze notes the Ukrainian government has committed to deep and widespread reforms that would cut labor protections and introduce austerity measures across the economy.
Quoting other sources, Tooze writes that Ukraine has “outsourced” most functions of its government beyond what is needed to carry out the military defence of the country – and that this “nightmarish” decision will have consequences for civil society over the long run.
A policy of dramatic fiscal austerity that comes at the expense of the fabric of Ukrainian society and the state will have huge long-run costs. The EU, the United States and other outside supporters can soften this dilemma best a. by providing more generous funding and b. by urging Kyiv towards a strategy of civilian as well as military state-building, not by replacing domestic national institutions with international agencies, but by promoting the mobilization of local institutions and agencies.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog head will not travel to Russia this week, but a visit is possible in the near future, Russian news agency RIA reported early on Monday, citing Moscow’s permanent representative to international organisations in Vienna.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi announced on Saturday that he would visit the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine this week to assess the serious situation there.
When asked if Russia planned to invite Grossi to Moscow in the near future, permanent representative Mikhail Ulyanov said that was “quite realistic”, according to RIA.
Not next week, but somewhat later, the visit of Rafael Grossi to Russia may well take place.
Grossi is pressing for a security zone to be erected around Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant with six reactors, which has come under repeated shelling during the 13-month war Russia has been waging against its neighbour.
– Reuters
The ISW also said the continuing of offences around Bakhmut and Avdiivka have become “not merely pointless, but actually harmful to Russian preparations for the next phase of this week”.
It said the loss of manpower and equipment means Russian forces will not gain any operational advantage from taking either Bakhmut and Avdiivka as they will be “unable to exploit such advances”.
Putin’s continuation of these Russian offensive operations in the current operational and strategic context amounts to strategic malfeasance. It expends scarce Russian combat power in pursuit of operationally meaningless gains rather than setting conditions to receive and defeat a Ukrainian counter-offensive that everyone appears to expect imminently.
However, the ISW said Putin’s “stubbornness” could make sense “in a protracted conflict during which western support for Ukraine wanes or ends”.
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Putin might even mean these operations to set conditions for a negotiated settlement on terms he has already articulated that include international recognition of Russia’s annexation of all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts; Ukrainian “neutrality”; the “de-militarization” of Ukraine; and the “de-Nazification” of the Ukrainian government.
The ISW said “multiple major Ukrainian operational-level victories” would be necessary to create “any prospect of a negotiated settlement of the current conflict or forcing Putin to accept unfavorable militaries realities, absent a formal settlement”.
The Institute for the Study of War says even a successful series of Ukrainian counteracts may not be enough to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the conflict.
In an abbreviated update, the ISW says Putin remains committed to carrying out the military campaign in an effort to “seek complete victory in Ukraine”.
Putin instead remains focused on achieving his initial war aims through protracted conflict in which he wins either by imposing his will on Ukraine by force or by breaking Ukraine’s will following the West’s abandonment of Kyiv.
It said “multiple successful Ukrainian counteroffensives are almost certainly necessary but not sufficient” to persuade Putin to enter into a negotiation for the end of the war. Instead the Russian President appears to be “doubling down” on the war by continuing to mobilising his country’s industrial base and relying on various shadow-mobilisation schemes to generate the necessary combat power.
Ukraine has accused Russia of destabilising Belarus and making its smaller neighbour into “a nuclear hostage”, after Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Moscow has made a deal to station tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.
The country’s opposition leader in exile, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said the move “grossly contradicts the will of the Belarusian people” and reflected the further subjugation of Belarus under Russian control.
The Russian president’s suggestions that the move would not breach non-proliferation agreements and that it was consistent with similar arrangements that the US has with several of its European allies was given short shrift in Kyiv.
Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, called the deal “a step towards internal destabilisation” of Belarus, and said it maximised what he termed the level of “negative perception and public rejection” of Russia and Putin in Belarusian society.
“The Kremlin took Belarus as a nuclear hostage,” he wrote on Twitter.
For more on this story, read the full report by Dan Sabbagh, Sam Jones and Julian Borger.
Nato says Vladimir Putin’s plan to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is “dangerous and irresponsible” and a threat to Russia’s nuclear non-proliferation commitments.
Putin likened his Belarus plan on Saturday to the US stationing its weapons in Europe, insisting Russia would not violate its nuclear non-proliferation promises.
The move, while not unexpected, is one of Russia’s most pronounced nuclear signals yet and a warning to Nato over its military support for Ukraine.
Nato spokesperson Oana Lungescu said on Sunday: “Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible”.
Nato is vigilant and we are closely monitoring the situation. We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own.”
Putin’s non-proliferation pledge and his description of US weapons deployment overseas were way off the mark, she added.
Russia’s reference to Nato’s nuclear sharing is totally misleading. Nato allies act with full respect of their international commitments. Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments.
Experts said Russia’s move was significant since it had until now been proud that unlike the US, it did not deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders. It may be the first time since the mid-1990s that it has done so.
Reuters
Opening Summary
Hello and welcome back to our live coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine – this is Royce Kurmelovs bringing you the latest developments.
Nato has criticised Russia for its “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric after Vladimir Putin said Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Ukraine has reacted to Russia’s plans by calling for an emergency meeting of the UN security council. The head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council has said that the Kremlin has taken Belarus as a “nuclear hostage”. More on that shortly.
Elsewhere, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged Ukrainians to remain engaged in the war, even though fighting has largely been concentrated in the east. Over the last 24 hours, Zelenskiy has met with security services, intelligence and defence to discuss reinforcement and “prepare respective steps”. He also said Ukraine has received €1.5bn in macro-financial assistance from the European Union.
Meanwhile heavy Russian shelling is turning the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka into a “place from post-apocalyptic movies”, according to the city’s military administration head, Vitaliy Barabash. Reuters reported about 2,000 civilians were left in the city that Ukrainian forces said last week could become a “second Bakhmut”. The city’s prewar population numbered 30,000.
In other developments:
The UN Nuclear watching head will not visit Russia this week, but another visit is possible in the future. International Atomic Energy Agency Director announced on Sunday he would visit the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in occupied-Ukraine, but said a visit to Russia was being planned for “somewhat later”.
Zelenskiy said the Croatian government had adopted a programme to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
The number of Russian troops in Belarus has decreased to about 4,000, according to Ukraine. Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service, said there had been 10,000 in January. The majority of those remaining were training, with the rest transferred back to Russia.
Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, has cautioned Belarus against hosting Russian nuclear weapons. “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation and threat to European security. Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice. The EU stands ready to respond with further sanctions.”
The US national security council spokesperson, John Kirby, said on Sunday: “We have not seen any indication that he [Putin] has made good on this pledge or moved any nuclear weapons around.”
Three people were reported injured and three residential buildings were damaged after an explosion in the town of Kireyevsk in Russia’s Tula region. Local law enforcement attributed the blast to a Ukrainian Tu-141 Strizh UAV drone “packed with explosives”. None of the people hurt in the blast were believed to have suffered life-threatening injuries, Reuters reported, citing Russian news agencies.
Russia and China are not creating a military alliance, Putin has said in a televised interview broadcast. Putin said the two countries’ military cooperation was transparent, news agencies reported.
