For the first time in years, the Men’s U.S. Open feels genuinely unpredictable. With Jannik Sinner dealing with an injury and Carlos Alcaraz preparing to compete for the first time since April, the door appears wider than usual for an unexpected contender to make a run at Flushing Meadows.
Alcaraz is still the player to beat as he chases a third U.S. Open crown, but oddsmakers are hardly treating him as a runaway favorite. At bet365 Sportsbook, the Spanish star sits at +175, only slightly ahead of French Open champion Alexander Zverev, who is listed at +300.
That relatively tight betting gap between Alcaraz and Zverev is not just about form — it also says plenty about how the U.S. Open draw has shaped up.
Alcaraz has been handed a demanding route to the semifinals, beginning with a potentially uncomfortable first-round matchup against Roman Safiullin. Zverev, by contrast, appears to have landed in a section of the bracket with fewer obvious danger spots.
Behind Zverev, the U.S. Open betting market gets crowded quickly. Five names are packed between +800 and 12/1 odds: Novak Djokovic at +800, Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar both at 10/1, Ben Shelton at 11/1 and Taylor Fritz at 12/1.
All of those players will fancy their chances to win with Sinner out of the picture and Alcaraz rusty, but each of them has significant questions to answer.
That should make the upcoming fortnight unpredictable, leaving the door open for an outsider to crash the party.
2026 US Open picks
Lorenzo Musetti (100/1, bet365 Sportsbook)
Injuries have derailed Lorenzo Musetti in 2026, but the former World No. 5 seems to be fit and firing after getting to the quarterfinals at the Cincinnati Masters.
If he’s operating at 100 percent, Musetti is absolutely a threat to win this tournament.
The Italian has all sorts of tricks up his sleeve and is a graceful mover, making him both a joy to watch and a chore to play against.
We usually tend to be biased towards big servers at the U.S. Open, but Musetti’s unpredictability makes up for his lack of power.
He made it to the quarterfinals here last year.
Casper Ruud (100/1, DraftKings)
Casper Ruud can be a maddening player to back, but his upside is undeniable.
When he’s up for it, Ruud is a threat to win any tournament, but you just don’t know what you’re going to get from the Norwegian when he steps on the court.
You could get the composed player with a relentless motor that made it to the U.S. Open Final in 2022 or you can get the disinterested version of Ruud that gets bounced in the early rounds.
We’ll hope for the former, as Ruud has a favorable draw in the early chapters of this tournament.
Alexander Bublik (130/1, DraftKings)
Speaking of players who can drive you up a wall, that’s Alexander Bublik’s calling card.
A prodigious server and one of the most talented athletes in this field, Bublik can look like the best player in the world one moment and a country-clubber the next.
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The Kazakh was drawn into Carlos Alcaraz’s half of the bracket, but his path to a potential meeting with Alcaraz is not all that daunting.
We’ll take a huge price on a huge talent here.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.