As President Donald Trump navigates his second term in office, a noticeable shift is occurring among independent voters, particularly those lacking a college degree. According to a comprehensive analysis conducted by AP-NORC, these independents are expressing growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s leadership.
The analysis, which synthesizes data from nearly two dozen polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, provides a detailed view of how Trump’s support has fluctuated during key periods of his presidency. These include the latter half of 2024, the pivotal first 100 days of his term, the summer of 2025 marked by the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, last fall’s government shutdown, and the onset of the Iran conflict.
This compiled data reveals a consistent downward trend in Trump’s approval among independents throughout his second term. Notably, support has waned among smaller yet significant demographic groups such as Black and Hispanic independents, who had leaned more towards Trump during the 2024 election.
With an increasing number of Americans identifying as independents, any decline in their support could spell trouble for Trump and the Republican Party as they approach the midterm elections. These elections often serve as a barometer for public approval of the ruling party’s performance.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC and co-author of the analysis, highlighted that while Democrats’ and Republicans’ opinions on Trump have remained relatively stable, the views of independents continue to shift. “Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” Torres explained.
Dramatic declines during Trump’s first 100 days
Trump’s return to the White House was fueled, in part, by independent voters who saw him as the stronger candidate on key issues like the economy. The new analysis, which looks at Trump’s favorability and presidential approval ratings, shows that once he took the helm, their views soured quickly.
Independents without a college degree had a much more positive view of Trump than college-educated independents did during and just after the 2024 election, but that shifted in the first few months of his term. Positive views of Trump among independents without a college degree fell from 48% in the months before he returned to office to 31% in polling conducted during Trump’s first 100 days back in office. Those warm views declined even further, to about one-quarter, during the government shutdown and the early months of 2026.
Only about 3 in 10 college-educated independents, by contrast, had a positive view of Trump before he returned to office, making their drop to about one-quarter much less dramatic.
“The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” said Sean Collins, a research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis. “That was surprising, especially given, when you think of Trump’s coalitions, those without college degrees is usually one of the ones that that stands out.”
Hispanic, younger independents grow disenchanted
Americans without a college degree have long been a key part of Trump’s coalition. But Trump also won in 2024 by making gains among groups that tend to support Democrats, including Hispanic adults.
About 4 in 10 independent voters — 42% — voted for Trump in 2024, up from 37% in the 2020 presidential election. Independent voters without a college degree were a little more likely to back Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the last election, according to AP VoteCast, and Hispanic independents were about evenly split between the two.
The picture looks much bleaker for the president now.
Nearly half of Hispanic independents — 46% — saw Trump favorably in the polling conducted around the presidential election. His approval among these adults dropped quickly in his second term, falling as low as 15% during last fall’s government shutdown before landing around one-quarter in the spring.
Younger independents also became less supportive of the president, while independents age 60 and older remained mostly stable. Other AP-NORC polling has pointed to Trump losing ground among younger Republicans over inflation concerns and Hispanic Americans growing increasingly discontented.
“The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around. He’s experienced some significant shifts among those people,” Torres said. ”From our research, they don’t appear to be permanent gains.”
The economy is frustrating many independents
Polling suggests that the economy as at the root of many Americans’ frustrations with Trump, including independents.
About half of independents who supported Trump in 2024 said inflation was the single most important factor for their vote, AP VoteCast found, and most expressed high levels of concern about the cost of food and gas.
More than a year into Trump’s second term, inflation remains high, fueled by gas prices that remain elevated as the Iran war continues. An AP-NORC poll conducted in April found that about 3 in 10 independents were “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford groceries in the last few months, and a similar share were worried about being able to afford gas.
The analysis found that Americans’ views of the U.S. economy tend to align with their view of the president. Those with negative views of the country’s economy tended to have negative views of Trump, and about 8 in 10 independents described the U.S. economy this spring as poor.
The latest AP-NORC polling from May found that only about 3 in 10 independents approve of how Trump is handling the economy, in line with the roughly 3 in 10 who said that at the beginning of his second term. The April poll found only about 1 in 10 independents — 12% — approved of how Trump was handling the cost of living.
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This AP-NORC analysis of 4,836 independents was conducted over 21 AP-NORC surveys, blocked into five time periods before and during President Donald Trump’s second term. Independents are classified as panelists who do not select that they identify with or lean toward either the Democratic or Republican Party.