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The recent accusations against ex-Cuban leader Raúl Castro have sparked debates about whether the Trump administration is laying the groundwork for a potential military intervention against the communist government.
These allegations, which also target five other individuals, come at a time of heightened tensions between Havana and Washington. This development follows closely on the heels of a U.S. official’s anonymous statement to Axios, highlighting concerns over Cuba’s drone capabilities as a threat to American security.
Even some of the most dedicated critics of Cuba are doubtful about the likelihood of Havana launching an unprovoked attack on the United States. Experts also question whether President Trump would engage in a swift operation akin to the January capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his spouse.
Katherine Thompson, a former official in the Trump administration and now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, expressed her skepticism. “I don’t see why we would want to engage in such a conflict now, especially given the ongoing situation in Iran,” she remarked.
“While it may not demand as many resources as the Maduro operation, it’s unwise to further stretch our forces when we’re already heavily engaged in the Middle East,” Thompson added.
President Trump on Wednesday insisted to reporters there would not be a U.S. escalation against Cuba as “the place is falling apart,” but said the country is “on our mind.”
That didn’t stop some Republicans from voicing their support for an invasion of the island.
“We shouldn’t take anything off the table. Same thing that happened to Maduro should happen to Raul Castro. But I’m not going to get ahead of whatever the Trump administration wants to do,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said Wednesday.
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) said an invasion is “exactly what should happen.”
“And that’s exactly what is good for the United States, we cannot have these thieves running that island any longer,” Salazar said in a press conference ahead of the expected indictment of Castro.
“What President Trump, I believe, is doing is just sending a very clear message to Raúl: Look at Maduro. Look at Maduro. If you do not want to wind up where he’s at, then go. Because that’s the beauty of the United States, that we’re giving these thugs the opportunity of leaving, so we can make things easier for the people,” she said.
U.S. Southern Command routinely frames Cuba as an intelligence hub for American adversaries, including Russia and China, and an intelligence concern given its geographic proximity to the United States. But the island has never been labeled as having offensive weaponry and capabilities to be seriously considered a threat.
“Their specialty is more asymmetric disruption,” Thompson told The Hill. “Are they going to launch missiles at Florida? I think that’s probably unlikely.”
As Cuba is currently suffering from significant fuel and energy shortages, launching any sort of major retaliation against the United States would cut into their pretty scarce supplies and wouldn’t be in their best interest, she added.
Havana is wary of Washington after Axios, citing an unnamed U.S. official, reported Sunday that Cuba had secured the attack drones and had discussed using them on U.S. interests as a way of advancing perceived threats from the island by the Trump administration.
The official told the outlet that the threat level from Cuba has risen, citing classified intelligence that claimed Havana had acquired more than 300 military drones and mulled plans to use them on the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, naval ships and Key West, Fla.
Cuban officials quickly pushed back, accusing Washington of fabricating reasons to justify potential military action.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel on Monday insisted his country “poses no threat, nor does it have aggressive plans or intentions against any country,” including the U.S. But he added that any attack against it “will cause a bloodbath with incalculable consequences.”
Lianys Torres Rivera, Cuba’s top diplomat in the U.S., said they would only take defensive measures.
“We are preparing for this,” Torres Rivera told The Hill last week of a potential invasion.
“Now we are doing more than ever. We cannot be naive. We cannot be naive. And in the way that we are preparing, it’s not in an offensive way. It’s not that we are preparing to be the first to do any action against the U.S. territory or against the U.S. people. We don’t want that. We are preparing to defend ourselves,” she said.
“We don’t want Cubans dying in Cuba,” she added, nor “any American soldier.”
And Cuba’s foreign minister, Bruno Rodriguez, accused Washington of building “a fraudulent case” without any legitimate excuse “to justify the ruthless economic war against the Cuban people and the eventual military aggression.”
Democratic lawmakers have expressed skepticism over the Trump administration’s recent fixation on Cuba and whether the island would make the first move in attacking the U.S.
In a statement, House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Gregory Meeks said Castro should be held accountable for the murder of Americans, but his indictment “looks less like a pursuit of justice and more like a pretext for escalation, potentially even an illegal invasion of Cuba.”
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), earlier this week also asserted that, “No country in the current economic and military situation that Cuba is in would ever preemptively strike a super-power like the US. This is just propaganda to build a case for an invasion of Cuba.”
The issue also divided the usually closely aligned group of Republican Cuban Americans representing South Florida.
“Do you really think that the Castro family is going to dare to attack with drones the United States?” Salazar said on Wednesday. “I do not believe that they will dare to do that because it will be something terribly bad for them.”
But Rep. Mario Diaz Balart (R-Fla.) swiftly disagreed about the risk posed by current Cuban leadership.
“I hardly ever disagree with my colleague. I will disagree with her on one thing that Cuba possessing 300-to-400 drones is a direct threat to the United States,” he said at the same press conference.
He added: “Yeah, we have the capability to shoot them down. OK, doesn’t mean that they won’t use them.”
Thompson said the warnings of Cuba’s threat weren’t convincing.
“I don’t have a good sense of what we’re going to get in return or how this meets the prioritization of security the way the National Defense Strategy outlined,” she said.
“They’re going to have a much harder time marketing this one if they’re trying to do the same playbook that they did in Venezuela here.”