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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The political world is watching what will happen next with former President Donald Trump’s campaign following a ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that he can not appear on that state’s ballot next year.
The state’s high court found he participated in an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, and under an interpretation of the 14th Amendment disqualified him from seeking the presidency. Trump’s lawyers immediately appealed.
The decision has resounding legal and political ramifications.
There are two key questions: Will the U.S. Supreme Court take the case and will other states follow Colorado’s lead?
“I think Trump’s campaign has already said we’re taking this to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has discretion, they obviously don’t take everything. I think absolutely [it will take] this one because it’s such a question of national importance,” Jacksonville defense attorney Belkis Plata said.
There are a few issues the nation’s high court would review. First, whether the president is a government officer. The 14th Amendment doesn’t name the president as someone who can be specifically disqualified for insurrection. Plata also said this deals with the issue of the federal government weighing in on how states run elections.
“The federal constitution gives the states power to control time, manner and place of their own election. And Colorado has interpreted their own law that we can make the decision for our own state,” Plata said.
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There are also major political ramifications.
Seth Warner, a scholar of American political behavior at the University of North Florida, said he could see other states making the same move.
“I could certainly see political actors pushing for it. Politics often plays out in the courts,” Warner said. “People could absolutely write in his name and I imagine that he would be almost as successful as any write-in candidate in history. But vote share drops significantly.”
Warner pointed out the court ruling could have a similar effect in the Republican primary that the indictments did against Trump. It caused a rallying effect among his GOP base and his poll numbers went up, but he’s not sure that would continue in the general election.
The Colorado court stayed its decision until Jan. 4, but Colorado ballots have to be printed on Jan. 5.
It’s not clear yet if the Supreme Court would be able to act quickly on the decision due to the holidays and also whether there can be other stays delaying the decision even if ballots have to be printed on Jan. 5.
