Erich Richter from The Post shares his predictions for the upcoming NFL Wild Card Weekend games on Sunday and Monday.

SUNDAY

JAGUARS +1.5 over Bills

The Buffalo Bills face a challenging matchup, requiring Josh Allen to perform exceptionally if they hope to progress beyond the Wild Card stage this week.

Currently, the Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be the more well-rounded team, showing improved performance at this point in the season. They hold the No. 6 spot in FTN’s DVOA rankings, with their defense also ranked No. 6. Notably, the Jaguars are ranked No. 4 in run defense, which poses a significant challenge to Buffalo’s strategy that heavily relies on the rushing prowess of champion James Cook.

Buffalo’s offense struggles against the defensive schemes of Coordinator Anthony Campanile, and Liam Coen’s strategic plans could lead to the Bills’ downfall at home.

49ers +5.5 over EAGLES

Though not a fan of the Eagles, I find it hard to support them as overwhelming favorites, despite the 49ers dealing with injuries. Philadelphia’s offense has slipped from a No. 9 ranking in the first half of the season to No. 22 in the latter half. The DVOA still holds San Francisco in high regard, ranking them at No. 10, while the Eagles have dropped to No. 15. The back-to-back practices logged by Trent Williams suggest he might be able to play, a critical factor for the 49ers.

Since 2020, the 49ers are 4-13 when Williams doesn’t play and 61-32 when he does. They need him badly. I’ll take San Fran to keep it close, as the Eagles don’t really blow anyone out, not named the Raiders and Commanders.

PATRIOTS -3.5 over Chargers

West Coast Chargers head on the road to play the New England Patriots in a game that is projected to be a cold and rainy affair on Sunday night. Los Angeles’ offense is nearing collapse right now, with problems on the offensive line being just one of the many issues facing Justin Herbert.

Omarion Hampton is also hobbled but expects to play in this game.

This comes as Drake Maye and the Patriots appear to be hitting their stride in recent weeks. The Chargers are No. 17 in DVOA while the Patriots are No. 9. New England is averaging 7.1 YPP in their last three games, most of which was padded against the dispicably bad Jets, but the Chargers averaged just five YPP in that timespan.

There’s really nothing working in the Chargers’ favor; the Patriots should roll here.

Betting on the NFL?

MONDAY

STEELERS +3 over TEXANS

Aaron Rodgers is still a bad man, and he gets back DK Metcalf on Monday night. Rodgers and the Steelers are playing their best football of the year, and my model backs it up, making Pittsburgh a two-point home underdog against the Texans.

Houston’s defense has shown cracks in its armor, allowing 5.5 YPP in their last three versus 4.8 YPP on the season. Their offense has also been at the bottom of the NFL all season, so this is the spot to target Pittsburgh, whose defense is playing its best football, and its offense appears to be clicking.

Last week: 6-8

Season: 116-123-5

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.