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According to folklore, we can expect an early spring if Punxsutawney Phil does not see his shadow on Groundhog Day.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. — Punxsutawney Phil’s annual forecast is here! The groundhog will predict if we will have an early spring or extended winter this year.
Phil’s meteorological prediction will take place just after sunrise Sunday in Gobbler’s Knob, the scene of the largest and best known Groundhog Day celebration in the United States.
The annual event is a tongue-in-cheek ritual in which Phil’s handlers, members of a club with roots in the late 19th century, reveal whether the groundhog has seen his shadow — ushering in six more weeks of winter weather — or hasn’t, presaging early springlike weather.
About 10,000 people have made their way in recent years to Punxsutawney, where festivities begin in the dead of night and culminate in the midwinter forecast. A bundled-up crowd, some wearing groundhog-themed hats, watched musical performances and fireworks as they waited for sunrise and the appearance of Punxsutawney Phil.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro announced last year that Phil is the new “official meteorologist for Pennsylvania.”
Phil predicts more winter far more often than he sees an early spring, not a bad bet for February and March in western Pennsylvania. A federal agency took a look at his record and put his accuracy rate at about 40%.
The tradition of celebrating the midpoint between the shortest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox goes back many centuries in European farm life.
There are more than a dozen active groundhog clubs in Pennsylvania, some dating back to the 1930s, and weather-predicting groundhogs have appeared in at least 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces.
The 1993 blockbuster film “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray, fueled interest in Punxsutawney Phil and inspired informal observations far and wide.
When he’s not making his annual prognostication, Phil lives in a customized space beside the Punxsutawney Memorial Library, with a window where library patrons can check out his burrow. Back in 2009, library workers said Phil had somehow managed to escape three times, climbing into the library ceiling and dropping into offices about 50 feet (15 meters) away. He wasn’t injured.
What does it mean when the groundhog sees his shadow?
According to folklore, if he sees his shadow there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring comes early.
The “inner circle” is a group of local dignitaries who are responsible for planning the events, as well as feeding and caring for Phil himself.
The annual event in Punxsutawney, about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, originated from a German legend about a furry rodent.
How often has Punxsutawney Phil been right?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compared Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast to the national weather over the past decade and found “on average, Phil has gotten it right 40% of the time.” Going back all the way to his first prediction in 1887, he’s been right only 39% of the time, according to an analysis from Stormfax Weather Almanac.
Phil has predicted six more weeks of winter more than 100 times. Ten years were lost because no records were kept, organizers previously said.
The last time Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow was in 2024, and before that in 2019 and 2020, offering a back-to-back dose of his rare early spring prediction.
