Share and Follow
Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks have confidently addressed every challenge they’ve faced during their playoff journey. Now, they’re set to take on their most formidable opponent yet.
The Knicks are riding high on an 11-game winning streak as they head to San Antonio, where they will confront Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. The key question for the Knicks’ leader is whether he can maintain his status as the top scorer in this series, a role he has upheld throughout the previous three rounds.
Currently, betting odds favor Wembanyama to lead the NBA Finals in total points, with odds at -175. Brunson is the second favorite, with odds of +155, trailing closely behind.
While this may not seem surprising given Wembanyama’s impressive performance in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, it’s worth noting that he’s averaging 23.2 points per game in these playoffs, whereas Brunson has been averaging a higher 26.9 points per game.
In their three meetings so far, which includes the NBA Cup championship game, Brunson has outscored Wembanyama by a total of four points. Although Wembanyama edged out Brunson in two of those games by narrow margins of two and one points, Brunson surpassed him by seven points in their Cup final showdown.
The difference here isn’t significant enough to warrant giving either player a better than 50 percent chance of being the leading scorer, which means there is value on Brunson as the underdog.
Against the Thunder, the Spurs were able to hound Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because he always had the ball, and their best alternative options for shot creation — Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell — were hurt for most of the series.
I expect this series to be different. Brunson doesn’t need to be on the ball constantly to be effective, and when he’s moving around off the ball, it tends to create open shots for him instead of the contested ones that are much tougher to hit consistently.
The Knicks have shown during this run that they can diversify their offense depending on the opponent, and Brunson’s scoring can essentially remain the same. Brunson scored 26.3 points on 47.8 percent shooting against the Hawks, 29 points on 51.3 percent shooting against the 76ers, and 25.5 points on 48.7 percent shooting against the Cavaliers.
Betting on the NBA?
Wembanyama’s scoring fluctuated during the Western Conference Finals, and it’s clear that he hasn’t fully figured out how to maintain the dominance he showed in Game 1. (Few players in NBA history outside of Shaquille O’Neal and Wilt Chamberlain have.)
Assuming Mitchell Robinson is available for the series, the Knicks have three good options (Robinson, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns) to force Wembanyama into jump shots instead of getting right to the rim for lobs and dunks.
At plus money, I’m more than happy to bet on Brunson to be the leading scorer in this series.
The Pick: Jalen Brunson series top points scorer (+155, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.