Netanyahu Gains Ground as Israel Election Heads Toward Political Deadlock

Updated Israeli exit polls released early Wednesday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu narrowing the gap with his rivals, but still without enough seats to secure a parliamentary majority. The projections point to a potentially prolonged political stalemate, even though parties outside Netanyahu’s governing bloc are collectively forecast to control more than half the Knesset.

A revised Channel 12 exit poll released at 3:30 a.m. Israel time gave Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious alliance 53 seats. The main opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, was projected to win 49 seats, while Arab parties were assigned 19. Together, the opposition and Arab factions would hold 68 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, though their political differences could prevent them from forming a unified government.

Speaking at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, Netanyahu adopted a confident tone and declared that his party had finished as Israel’s largest. He urged supporters to back the creation of a strong right-wing government.

“We are still waiting for the actual results, which we will receive over the next day or two,” Netanyahu told the crowd. “Two things have become clear. The first is unequivocal: Likud is the largest party in Israel.”

“We must establish a strong national right-wing government,” he said, rejecting the prospect of a coalition reliant on Arab parties, which he accused of opposing Israel’s existence.

Netanyahu spoke several hours after Eisenkot addressed supporters at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv, where early projections had fueled celebrations over an opposition lead. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to acknowledge the outcome and leave office, but the updated figures showed that the final result remained unsettled.
Netanyahu also described Israel’s partnership with Trump as a “once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity” to remove the existential threat posed by Iran.

The rival speeches underscored the election’s defining question: Which leader will receive the first chance to build a government?
If Eisenkot wins recommendations from at least 61 lawmakers — potentially with support from Arab parties — he could be asked to form a government even if Netanyahu’s Likud remains the largest single party. That mandate, however, would not ensure that Eisenkot could put together a stable coalition.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces an uncertain wait. He could still be given the task of forming a government without holding a majority, or receive another opportunity if Eisenkot’s negotiations collapse. Either scenario could leave Israel in weeks of coalition bargaining.

Israelis voted in exceptionally large numbers Tuesday in the country’s first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre. Early exit polls put Netanyahu’s Likud in first place, but projected his governing coalition below the threshold needed for a Knesset majority, raising the possibility of a leadership change.
 

Netanyahu fights for political future as Israel heads to polls with Iran threat looming

The figures are preliminary exit-poll projections rather than official results. They could shift as election officials count and verify ballots over the next several days.

Polling day was marked by unusually long lines and voter participation levels not seen in Israel for decades.

Turnout reached a historic 77.7% of eligible voters by the close of polling, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee. It was the country’s highest participation rate since 1999, reflecting the intensity of the contest.

As participation surged, election officials simplified voting procedures and reassured voters that anyone who reached a polling station before the 10 p.m. deadline would still be permitted to vote.

The election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership after three years of war and persistent scrutiny over who was responsible for the security breakdown that enabled Hamas terrorists to kill approximately 1,200 people and abduct 251 others on Oct. 7, 2023.

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister campaigned on his record of confronting Iran and its regional allies, pointing to Israel’s military gains and his ties to President Donald Trump. Opponents accused Netanyahu of avoiding responsibility for the Oct. 7 security failures and criticized his government’s proposed approach to investigating the events that preceded the massacre.

A last-minute battle for every vote

During the campaign’s final hours, Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other party leaders made an intensive push to energize their bases and persuade undecided voters.

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Likud produced hundreds of targeted videos and social media posts, placing digital campaigning at the center of its last-minute effort to mobilize voters.

Eisenkot’s campaign urged supporters to consolidate behind Yashar as the strongest challenger to Likud. Bennett, meanwhile, traveled from city to city, meeting voters in person and communicating with them through WhatsApp.

The key question now is which candidate can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers when President Isaac Herzog consults with the newly elected parliamentary factions. If Eisenkot can obtain those recommendations, including from Arab parties, he would have a strong claim to receive the first opportunity to form a government, even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party. Crucially, Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot without formally joining his governing coalition. However, the final decision rests with Herzog, who is tasked with selecting the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Securing the first mandate would not guarantee Eisenkot could assemble a governing majority, leaving the possibility of another political deadlock.

The campaign’s closing hours also featured personal appeals, phone calls to undecided voters and aggressive turnout operations across the political spectrum.

The final days were particularly important because a relatively small share of voters remained undecided about which party to support.

A Times of Israel poll published five days before the election found that 87% of respondents had already made their final choice, while 2.4% remained undecided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu political blocs.

Other surveys suggested a larger pool of undecided voters, although many were choosing between parties within the same political camp rather than switching sides.

That distinction could prove decisive in Israel’s parliamentary system, where political parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the 120-seat Knesset.

Even a slight change in the vote share of smaller parties could shift several parliamentary seats and determine whether either camp has a realistic path to power.

What happens next?

Despite the exit poll projections, the identity of Israel’s next prime minister may remain uncertain for weeks.

Unlike in the United States, Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing their head of government.

The 120 seats in parliament are allocated proportionally, and parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to win representation.

Once the final results are certified, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected political factions and select the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government.

That candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a governing coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.

Official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu’s outgoing government will remain in power.