In the heated race for the Los Angeles mayoral seat, candidate Spencer Pratt’s once-solid hold on second place is beginning to slip, prompting a swift reaction from bettors.
Since May 11, the former reality TV personality was seen as a strong contender, enjoying a more than 75% probability of making it through the primary stage, as per the predictions from the betting platform Kalshi. However, the landscape has shifted considerably as Election Night approached.
By Saturday, Pratt’s chances took a nosedive, with socialist city Councilmember Nithya Raman emerging as the favored candidate among bettors. According to Kalshi’s latest odds, Raman now holds a commanding 94% likelihood of advancing, while Pratt’s odds have plummeted to a mere 5% on another betting platform, Polymarket.
Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has already secured enough support to guarantee her spot in the upcoming runoff, ensuring her continued presence in the mayoral race.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass has already secured enough votes to advance to the runoff.
Bettors on both platforms fueled a similar pattern of divergence for the two candidates, with Pratt in freefall since Wednesday.
The new odds may seem to conflict with current voting data, as Los Angeles County slowly and painstakingly continues going through thousands of uncounted ballots.
With 71% of votes counted, Pratt had 28.2% of the share as of Friday. Raman still trails in third place with 24.9%.
But Pratt’s lead’s has been steadily slipping as more mail-in ballots — which tend to favor Democrats — are still being counted. Raman scored a major boost Friday, cutting Pratt’s lead by about 13,000 votes from a day earlier.
“Barring some mathematical surprise, today’s results suggest that Nithya Raman is likely headed to the runoff,” longtime political strategist Michael Trujillo told The California Post on Friday.
“One factor to watch is the late vote. Younger voters have tended to cast their ballots later for decades, and DSA-backed candidates have been particularly effective at organizing and turning out that demographic. As additional ballots are counted, that will continue to influence the outcome,” he said.
Another new batch of vote drops is expected Saturday.
Whoever advances could significantly change the general election picture. The Bass campaign has made no secret it would rather face off against Pratt than another Democrat in Raman.