Crime statistics in New York City present a complex picture—despite optimistic headlines suggesting otherwise. As discovered by On The Money, the city’s business sector remains caught in a narrative that doesn’t quite align with reality.
Business leaders highlight reductions in specific crime categories as evidence that New York is welcoming for both workers and entrepreneurs. Indeed, there is some truth to this claim: Over the last 16 years, murder rates have plummeted by almost 50%, and are roughly 34% less than they were two years ago.
Similarly, shootings have decreased by around 27% compared to two years prior and more than halved since 2012, a period overlapping with the final years under Mayor Mike Bloomberg.
Yet, these numbers don’t tell the entire story. Felonious assault reports have surged by nearly 77% over the past 16 years and edged up by 1% in the last two years. Transit crimes continue to rise as well, seeing a 7% increase since 2010 and a slight 1.2% uptick recently. Though decreases in grand larceny are noted, these crimes still remain 22% above levels recorded during Bloomberg’s administration.
The situation becomes even more alarming with reports of rapes having increased by 4.6% in the past year, accompanied by a rise of more than 6% in hate crimes.
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The contradiction was recently brought to my attention by a top litigator at a big Manhattan law firm who served in the Justice Department under George W. Bush and who knows his way around NYPD’s so-called CompStat crime reports that get published weekly.
“The city also has two glaring problems: an epidemic of rape and hate crimes AKA criminal antisemitism,” my source tells me. “Over the past two years, rape is up more than 30%, and 73% since 2010.”
“Yes, the murder rate has dramatically declined. Ditto shooting incidents,” he added. “But those figures only tell part of the story.”
To be clear, I get why city business leaders are looking at the proverbial glass half filled. It’s no fun running a company under the yoke of Zohran Mamdani’s incompetent, socialist mayoralty that seeks to tax anything that moves to fund his ever-growing welfare state.
Looking at the bright side of crime numbers is also a great way to persuade more businesses from fleeing to places where the homeless don’t crowd our sidewalks and you don’t get mugged when taking the family to dinner.
But a more realistic crunching of the numbers suggests that business leaders are merely looking for silver linings in numbers that still show New York is a dangerous place to live and do business in.
On The Money is all mostly about money, of course, but crime has traditionally been one of the biggest headwinds for the economy of the city. Faulty budgeting was the root cause of the city’s financial crisis and near bankruptcy of the 1970s, but the huge uptick in crime caused millions of middle class, tax-paying New Yorkers to flee to the suburbs.
Likewise, the strides against crime made by Rudy Giuliani when he was mayor and carried over during the Bloomberg years saw a business renaissance here in the city. Taxpayers were moving to the city, not fleeing, as the recent “millionaire exodus” study published by the Citizens Budget Commission pointed out.
Steve Fulop, the CEO of the Partnership for NYC, the city’s leading business advocacy group, tells me “crime statistics don’t move in a straight line, but the multiyear trend remains favorable, and murder, the most serious indicator of overall trend, is down.
“Beyond the numbers, business sentiment on public safety is also positive, which reflects the job Commissioner Tisch is doing and her regular, direct engagement with our members.”
It’s hard to dispute that NYPD chief Jessica Tisch is doing yeoman’s work despite some formidable obstacles, including a mayor who thinks sidewalk homelessness is a right and local DAs who believe the best way to reduce crime is to no longer enforce the laws. Let’s not forget that Jay Clayton, President Trump’s US Attorney for the Southern District of Manhattan has also embarked on a sweeping crackdown on violent criminals here in the city and it’s having an impact.
That said, the numbers don’t lie. NYC is a dangerous place, and the question business people will be asking increasingly: Is it worth the cost of doing business here?