Prince Harry’s Return to England: Will His High-Stakes Gamble Pay Off?

There has still been no formal announcement that Prince Harry, Meghan Markle and their children, Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet, have swapped California for life in Britain. Yet the silence feels increasingly strange: the family is understood to have landed ten days ago by private jet, shortly after briefings suggested they were heading to the UK for an “extended stay”.

Behind the scenes, however, the word has spread quickly through their apparent new Cotswolds base — moving through local circles with the kind of speed more often associated with Jeremy Clarkson racing across a field on his Lamborghini tractor.

According to several sources, Archie and Lilibet have now been registered at schools in the area. Friends of Harry say the Duke of Sussex was keen for Archie, seven, to experience a traditional British prep school education, reminiscent of Harry’s own cherished years at Ludgrove in Berkshire. Lilibet, five, is expected to attend the same school’s pre-prep department.

Those close to the couple say the plan is for Harry to take on the role of a more hands-on, full-time father in the Cotswolds, while Meghan divides her time between Britain and the couple’s Montecito home as she continues to pursue her business, media and entertainment ambitions.

Harry is expected to be on the touchline as Archie gets to grips with rugby, while Meghan is said to be adjusting to one very British reality: Saturday school. Still, with the move appearing to have come together at speed, many details of the Sussexes’ new chapter in the UK remain unsettled.

For instance, every local estate agent and landowner is agog over the question of where they are staying now, and where they might buy – or have they bought already? But I hear from a friend of Harry’s it might be up to 18 months before they move in anywhere.

‘They are staying in a property on the estate of a friend,’ they say. ‘But the truth is Harry feels they are highly unlikely to find somewhere that is just ready to move into.

‘He thinks it may be 12 to 18 months before they’re into a new place, and that’s if you are thinking about completing at the end of this year or early next year. So it could be even further away than that.

‘It’s likely that if you have the £8million-plus budget, which they do, that a house will be historic which makes renovations more complicated because there are heritage issues.

‘The kind of property they are looking for with the amount of land doesn’t come up every week so they know it might be a long search for the right place.’

One’s rather reminded of their initial flit in 2020 after Megxit, when the couple upped sticks across the Atlantic to make their fortune, despite having no permanent home to go to, instead relying on the largesse of rich friends such as film-maker and actor Tyler Perry. Yet the couple’s friends are convinced this high-stakes move back to the UK – which appears equally dependent on the munificence of rich friends – will prove more successful.

And indeed there are signs Harry and Meghan’s gamble on returning, even at this early stage, has started to bear fruit.

I was told on Thursday evening by a source close to Harry that the wheels have begun to turn on what has been a huge point of contention for the prince: whether the state will fund his security. So much so that his circle say Harry believes he is about to win at least a partial victory here.

The prince has fought and lost numerous court battles over his security, and wants to have full-time taxpayer-funded close protection from the Home Office.

Until now, however, all the Sussexes have had is a police phone number to call if needed, after a review of his needs carried out by the Royal and VIP Executive Committee (Ravec) concluded he wasn’t entitled to more than this.

‘Now, though,’ says the source, ‘a police liaison officer has been assigned to them, and Ravec are again assessing the situation now the children have regular routines. There is some security where they’re staying, as there is on all estates of that size. They also have security which they are paying for privately. But Ravec are right now re-evaluating them and their new circumstances.

‘As well as them now being in the UK and with children and school, the fact is that Britain in 2026 is different from Britain in 2020. The thinking is that, in the next couple of weeks, there will be an announcement that Ravec will amend their security status to some degree.’

Which feels rather like what used to be called ‘gunboat diplomacy’. Harry’s move home seems to have called everyone’s bluff – much to his benefit.

That’s not the only area where friends believe Harry hopes to make inroads, saying it even looks as if there is manoeuvring along similar lines over his relationship with his brother Prince William.

A friend says: ‘It’s too soon now but there is a hope and a belief that one day they will appear in public together and that will completely change the narrative. There is communication between them.

‘I don’t think people quite realise what a bad place Harry was in mentally around the time of that decision to move to America. He was so unhappy. He has grown up a lot, and having children has changed him a lot as well.’

That’s not a narrative other royal sources recognise, however. One tells me: ‘I don’t believe that there is communication between the brothers. There was a story some time ago which suggested Harry sent a message after Kate’s cancer diagnosis and it was ignored.’

What is more certain is that Harry can enjoy a rejuvenated relationship with his father now he is closer geographically. I’m told the idea of taking tea with ‘Pa’ once a month has been floated.

Harry’s friend said: ‘They are hoping to see more of the King and for the children to properly get to know him and be a part of his life. I do think Harry will try to make his arrangements without involving the Palace apparatus as far as he can. Yes, a cup of tea and a run around the garden for half an hour on a Sunday, that sort of thing.’

It remains to be seen, though, whether similar familial contentment could ever be achieved with the Waleses. The more cynical source said: ‘William is never ever going to talk about it, so you shouldn’t believe anyone who tells you they know what he’s thinking.

‘William is the arch pragmatist unlike Harry, who would – and has – cut off his nose to spite his face. William would never do anything to weaken the institution. If the focus groups say that everyone wants Harry back then I think he would listen, but they don’t even remotely say that at the moment.’

Public opinion is, indeed, dead set against Harry after the barbs and betrayals of the Montecito period. But Harry’s friend suggests: ‘There is a bit of optimism that we might be starting to see a change in sentiment about Harry. It’s one step at a time.’

One imagines this depends on how committed Harry and Meghan appear to be to their new lives.

Last week I was told the family are planning to spend the Christmas holidays ‘back home’ in Montecito. Then I was told the likelihood is the family will scoot back for half term as well, and this pattern will continue for the rest of the school year, adding their base in Portugal into the mix as well.

Which might lead you to ask whether some of the family are more comfortable with the UK return than others?

Harry’s friends continue to stoutly insist that ‘Megs’ is ‘100 per cent all-in’ with the move. Time will tell as it will be a challenge for her to keep her As Ever Instagram feed full of aspirational Californian sunshine content when she’s having a wet Wednesday on the school run.

One imagines house-hunting will be a good project to keep Meghan occupied. Harry’s friend tells me: ‘They have engaged a number of agents who have been looking for them for the past month or so. Everyone is speculating like mad on which places they like or don’t like, or might buy.’

Significantly, the family have not been seen by locals since they arrived, which looks a little like a re-run of their life in Montecito. There they conducted themselves so privately nobody in the community would say they would be missed when it emerged they were returning to the UK.

One neighbour even told the Mail the Sussexes had returned the bottle of wine which she had left as a welcome gift at their gate.

This kind of closed-door policy will not go down well in the celebrity-rich Cotswolds, where everyone is expected to at least pay lip service to the idea of community.

Local author Plum Sykes, who has written a fictional best-seller about the social mores of the area, told the Royalist podcast: ‘I suspect when they were at Frogmore [their former cottage home on the Windsor estate] everything was dealt with by the estate.

‘But in the Cotswolds if you buy a farm or estate then you really have to run it and be humble. You have to understand how to work with all sorts of people who you have never come across before.’

This, she feels, will not be a problem for Harry.

Sykes adds that the area can be ‘grim’ between January and May and lots of glamorous and wealthy people spend Monday to Thursday in London as it can be ‘very isolating’ in the countryside, which may prove a challenge for Meghan.

Socially, however, she believes that the couple will fly.

Sykes says: ‘I think Meghan and Harry – even though people will say they don’t agree with what they did and they don’t know if they will like them – the minute that they show up at the school gates people will be all over them. What I’ve heard is that the parents at one of the schools that’s on the list that the children could be going to are what’s called “pretend annoyed” which is a bit like a version of humble bragging.’

Disappointingly for the smart set, though, I’m told Harry is dead set on keeping his head down and being ‘citizen Harry’.

A friend says: ‘They have been deliberately keeping as low a profile as possible and it’s interesting their new life has started without them being photographed.

‘Harry is determined to stay as much of a private citizen as possible and has been sending a message that this is what he is.

‘There will be work events like the WellChild awards coming up and patronages, but day by day, there will be no social media, no Instagram of their British life, and they will absolutely be sticking to the agreement they made before their trip here in July, where there is no briefing about visits with the King, what happened, or pictures of those visits.’

Less friendly voices believe that there is an ulterior motive in play. Author Tom Bower says: ‘This is all about the Invictus Games next July. Harry has always planned that the King should come and open them, and that somehow that photograph of Harry with his father would reintroduce Harry into the Royal Family.

‘He would get recognition and the status he wanted in England while still being able to return to America, half-in, half-out.

‘That is something the King must resist. But the problem, of course, is there are members of the British Armed Forces in that competition. Can the King, as commander-in-chief, ignore servicemen, especially injured servicemen?’ That remains to be seen.

So can Harry really achieve the hat-trick of improved security, family relations and privacy, all in one fell swoop?

If he can, his move home will have been his best decision yet.