Storm Marie Forecast to Become Hurricane as Rare Track Puts California on Alert

A developing storm in the Pacific is drawing fresh attention as forecast models suggest it could track unusually close to the California coast — with some projections even raising the possibility of a direct impact.

Tropical Storm Marie is forecast to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, bringing sustained winds of more than 75 mph.

The system is currently moving along Mexico’s coastline and is expected to approach the Baja California Peninsula, the narrow 775-mile stretch of land that sits just south of California and the US-Mexico border.

The National Hurricane Center has cautioned that Marie is likely to remain at hurricane strength through Sunday as it moves northward along the West Coast.

New spaghetti models, which show a range of possible storm tracks, indicate Marie has a significant chance of curving toward Southern California, potentially putting areas such as Los Angeles or San Diego in the path of landfall.

The National Weather Service has already warned beachgoers in Los Angeles that there is a high risk for large waves and dangerous rip currents throughout the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Coastal flooding is also predicted to be a concern along beaches and shorelines facing the south this weekend.

A Pacific cyclone has never made landfall in California at hurricane strength. The last tropical storm to make landfall was in September 1997 when Nora crossed from Mexico into the US.

Two major forecasting models, the so-called American and European models, both show multiple tracks which could take Marie towards a historic landfall in Southern California.

Meteorologist Levi Cowan aggregated dozens of these potential routes from the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to build the latest spaghetti models.

Those models, seen on Cowan’s website Tropical Tidbits, largely agree that the Pacific Cyclone will continue rolling along the Baja Peninsula through the weekend, but its path after that becomes unclear.

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Roughly half of the predictions show Marie turning east and spiraling into multiple California cities, including San Diego, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Santa Clara and Santa Barbara.

The other half of the current predictions favor Marie continuing to head straight and remaining in the Pacific until it fades. 

It is important to note that forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and get closer to making landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets.

Meteorologist Sebastian Westerink from the National Weather Service expressed skepticism that Marie would maintain its strength all the way to California, predicting it would weaken in the colder waters closer to the West Coast.

Westerink told the Los Angeles Times: ‘By the time this storm reaches Southern California, it will very likely be below hurricane status and even tropical storm status.’

A tropical storm has not taken such a path, from the Pacific Ocean straight into the California Coast, in nearly a century, when the Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939.

Meanwhile, hurricanes in California have never been regarded as a real threat due to the California Current bringing much colder water closer to the coast, depriving major storms of the warm ocean water they need for fuel.

At the same time, storms have been regularly blocked from reaching California by prevailing northeast trade winds, which steer eastern Pacific cyclones to the west – towards Hawaii or open water.

Despite their rarity, meteorologists have feared that 2026 could be a historic year for Pacific storms, thanks to the emergence of a potentially record-setting El Niño.

This is a breaking story. More details to follow.