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War between Iran and Israel would be to no one’s benefit in the region as it would likely end up in a pitched battle that regional forces would keep away from, experts told Fox News Digital.
“Frankly, none of the Arab states would want to take either side in this conflict,” Matt McInnis, senior fellow for the Institute for the Study of War, explained. “They may inevitably be drawn into it, and I think that’s one of the things that Iran is very worried about.”
“[Iran is] not quite sure if Israel’s efforts over the last few years to increase diplomatic and security relationships with states like Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and others are sufficient to keep these states out of a larger conflict,” McInnis added.
“Our bases and others in those countries, in a larger and larger conflict as part of our support and defense of Israel is obviously very complicated,” McInnis explained. “I think that on the Iranian side, certainly the Syrians will side with them, but I don’t know what material support that provides aside from potentially allowing Iran to use Syrian territory for attacks.”
“But it is true for a long, all-out war, which I don’t really foresee … I guess that’s a fair critique,” he continued. “They have certainly improved in their ability to coordinate very sophisticated drone cruise and ballistic missile actions, and we look at the classic one in Saudi Arabia in 2019, [which] was the kind of beginning of that period where we have these far more sophisticated capabilities combined with what Lebanese Hezbollah could do.”
“I think both the Iranians and the Israelis are most concerned about if this becomes a ground war, similar or in some ways inspired by the October 7th Hamas attack, where it’s not just missiles and drones but combined with ground operations,” he explained.
Thick smoke billows from an explosion on the Israel-Gaza border, as seen from Sderot. (Ilia Yefimovich/picture alliance via Getty Images)
“That’s something that, I think in particular, the Israelis and the Iranians are worried we’re going to end up in that type of conflict in southern Lebanon or even in northern Israel struggling to go on as another as a kind of a flashpoint,” he added. “I think that’s where the capabilities of Iran’s axis of resistance, along with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, could still be fairly serious to Israel’s security.”
Bill Roggio, founder and editor of the “The Long War Journal,” stressed Iran’s reliance on proxy groups to wage war and keep enough distance to maintain something of a response without the rampant escalation that would accompany direct response.
“I think one of the things that’s kind of misunderstood is that Iran and Israel are already at war, it’s just Iran is doing it via its proxies. Israel is under attack already by the Iranian proxies – but they could be escalating, right?” Roggio said. “So, at the bare minimum, these are Iran’s closest allies in the region, and they do wield significant power: Lebanon, the proxy, particularly in Iraq, essentially running things.”
“The Saudis have indicated that they really don’t want to be a frontline state,” Roggio added. “They’ve experienced Iranian attacks with drones, and, given Israel’s position in Gaza, I don’t expect the Egyptians or any other Arab country to come to the Israeli side.”
Roggio also noted that Russia and China have a vested political and diplomatic interest in Iran, which they last year invited to join the BRICS economic bloc. Highlighting the “tightened” bonds between the three countries, he argued that Iran and China could provide support that aimed to keep the conflict “hot” but was unclear how that might happen.
