Vladimir Putin is reportedly worried he could be “hanged” politically — or worse — if Russia fails to secure victory in Ukraine, with an insider claiming the Kremlin leader is now preparing to intensify the war as Moscow issues increasingly stark warnings that Britain could be targeted.
People said to be close to the Kremlin claim Putin has opted for escalation because he fears a severe backlash at home if he brings the conflict to an end without being able to present it as a Russian triumph.
In a speech on August 22, Putin accused Ukraine of opening a “Pandora’s box” and warned of “blowback on the most sensitive sectors of your economy”.
Speaking earlier the same day to United Russia, the Kremlin’s ruling party, he rejected any suggestion that the war was nearing its conclusion. “The special military operation continues,” he said. “We will move only forward.”
The remarks come as ordinary Russians face mounting fallout from the invasion, including repeated Ukrainian drone strikes, tighter internet controls and growing pressure from a weakened economy.
According to The Economist, discontent is even greater among Russia’s elites, with one insider claiming they are increasingly frustrated by the number of years the conflict has consumed.
Mr Putin reportedly believes he could be at risk if he ends the war without achieving at least his minimum goal of capturing the entire Donbas region.
‘They will hang me,’ he reportedly said, according to an insider cited by The Economist.
Firefighters work at a site of a Russian drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, gestures while speaking to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit
People wait for the end of the air raid alert and resumption of metro train service during a Russian drone attack in Kyiv
The escalation may also be linked to Mr Putin’s perception of US weakness, according to a longtime associate.
The claim comes amid conflicting accounts of CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Russia last week.
One version suggests he travelled to warn Mr Putin against attacking Nato countries, while another says he delivered a bleak assessment of Russia’s prospects and sought to persuade the Kremlin leader to negotiate.
The ‘just don’t do it’ advice was based on US intelligence that Russia is primed to act after its campaign on the battlefield in Ukraine stalled again.
Following the visit, the Kremlin hinted it was not looking for peace with the West, warning ‘it is too early to say if the deep crisis in US-Russia relations can be overcome,’ before boasting ‘Ukraine is definitely losing the war.’
And in an apparent bid to set his fears at ease, Mr Putin on Monday gathered in Kyrgyzstan for a two-day summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, a regional bloc that seeks to be a counter-influence to the West.
China’s Xi Jinping and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko were also in attendance.
The group, which is celebrating its 25-year anniversary, brings together Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, four Central Asian countries and Moscow-allied Belarus.
Mr Putin and Xi have previously used SCO summits to promote their vision of a multipolar world and present a united front against the West.
It takes place four-and-a-half years into Moscow’s Ukraine invasion and six months into the war between Washington and Tehran. Iran will be represented by its president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
And Russia’s defence ministry on Sunday said it was gearing up for large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a tit-for-tat response to strikes by Kyiv.
‘Russian forces have begun preparations for massive strikes against facilities in Ukraine’s energy sector in response to the ongoing attacks by the Kyiv regime on civilian infrastructure and on Russia’s oil and energy complex,’ it said on Telegram.
Last winter, Moscow repeatedly hit Ukrainian power plants, devastating the country’s energy sector and plunging millions of people into cold and darkness in sub-zero temperatures.
Both sides have for several months escalated long-range strikes, targeting infrastructure such as warehouses, businesses, oil and port facilities, as well as ships, increasing civilian casualties.
On Sunday, the Russian army claimed to have struck a plant in Kyiv producing asbestos and cement whose warehouses, it said, were used to store explosives, as well as a manufacturer of drones and munitions.
On Saturday, a Russian strike on an ammunition depot in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital triggered a huge explosion and killed at least 37 people.
Ukraine for its part attacked an oil refinery with drones in northwestern Russia, causing a fire, according to the local authorities.
Meanwhile, Nato is facing a particularly fraught moment, as Russian drones repeatedly test the defences of countries along the alliance’s eastern frontier.
But other European nations are also increasingly coming under threat.
A firefighting helicopter flies above a burning Wildberries facility following a reported Ukrainian drone strike
A view of the burning roof as firefighters work to extinguish the fire at a facility building following a Russian airstrike in Kramatorsk, Ukraine
Just last week, Russia threatened to target British factories in a ‘semi-military’ response to the UK’s support for Ukraine.
On Monday, Moscow accused the UK of ‘participating in this war’ after Prime Minister Andy Burnham arrived in Kyiv for his first foreign visit.
Mr Burnham had announced that European defence firm MBDA had been given permission to share information on UK components for the long-range Scalp missile, meaning Ukraine could start manufacturing them locally.
The move sparked a furious reaction from the Kremlin, with a senior Putin adviser warning of a more aggressive response and claiming Russia now views the UK as ‘evil number one’.
Former Russian deputy foreign minister Andrey Fedorov told BBC’s Newsnight that Russia’s response to Mr Burnham’s announcement had been ‘very negative’.
Asked about the threat, Mr Fedorov said: ‘There’s a very serious political and public pressure on President Putin today, to undertake certain measures against UK, because he is considering UK as part of the war in Ukraine, and assistance from the UK is considered as a direct involvement of UK in this war.’
The official warned a new stage of escalation would see a ‘not only verbal but maybe some visible reaction’ from Russia towards the UK.
Explaining what this would look like, Mr Fedorov said: ‘It might be so-called technical reaction, maybe some hackers attack from unknown source – not from official level, of course.
‘There might be different political steps. And I cannot exclude 100 per cent that there might be some semi-military, for example.
He said British factories producing drones for Ukraine could be targeted in such a move by ‘unknown sources’.
Hackers would also target what he described as ‘concrete enterprises’ linked to the production of drones or components for Storm Shadow (the British version of Scalp) missiles.
Mr Fedorov explained that by Mr Burnham handing over blueprints for the manufacturing of missiles in Ukraine, Britain has become ‘much more involved’ in the war.
‘Moscow is considering steps by UK Prime Minister as direct military involvement into this conflict,’ he added.
Mr Fedorov’s comments come after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed earlier on Monday that ‘Britain is participating in this war’ on the side of Ukraine.
‘Britain methodically and regularly pours fuel on the fire and methodically and regularly plots to prevent any progress in the peace process.’
He added Russian armed forces were intent on identifying ‘the production sites of such missiles’ and ‘the production sites of other military equipment’ in order to destroy them.
But Mr Burnham insisted there would be no let-up in the UK’s support for Ukraine against Mr Putin’s aggression, branding Russia’s threats to the UK ‘outrageous’.
‘Who started the fire? That’s the question, isn’t it,’ he said.
Andy Burnham with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv earlier this week. Britain will keep providing defence aid to Ukraine despite Russia’s threats
This photograph shows Ukrainian air defence firing at a Russian drone above Kyiv
Meanwhile, Western intelligence assessments have grown increasingly stark, with US officials worried Moscow could attempt to seize Nato territory within weeks.
Potential scenarios range from a major cyber attack to armed groups occupying territory to an incursion along Nato’s eastern flank.
Moscow has already been accused of waging a shadow war across the continent through sabotage, cyber attacks, drones, disinformation and intimidation – tactics designed to cause disruption while staying below the threshold for a military response.
British spy chief Anne Keast-Butler has warned that the UK and its allies now occupy ‘a space between peace and war’, with Russian activity stretching ‘from the seabed to cyberspace’.
Security experts have told Prime Minister Mr Burnham to be prepared for a ‘direct response’ from Mr Putin following his declaration of Britain’s ‘unwavering’ support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces.
