Brazil’s 80-Year-Old President Lula Wins Reelection to Fourth Term

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term on Sunday, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, in a closely fought runoff election.

Official results showed the leftist president winning 51.7 percent of the vote, compared with 48.2 percent for Bolsonaro.

The 80-year-old Lula completed a remarkable turnaround after finishing a surprising second in the first round of voting.

Flavio Bolsonaro had led the opening round and campaigned on reviving his father’s far-right political movement, as well as granting him a pardon.

The unexpected result defied opinion polls, political precedent and a broader global backlash against incumbents, halting a run of right-wing victories across Latin America.

For long stretches, Lula’s reelection appeared far from certain. Voters had grown frustrated with him and his Workers’ Party after years of corruption scandals and rising prices. At the same time, rapid social and economic changes made the former metalworker and union leader seem increasingly disconnected from Brazil’s app-driven economy and its expanding population of informal workers.

Lula’s victory adds another comeback to a political career defined by them. He was imprisoned between 2018 and 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned, clearing the way for his successful challenge to Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.

‘He is a statesman, a giant,’ said Erika Hilton, a leftist federal lawmaker who was alongside Lula in Sao Paulo as the votes were counted.

Final opinion polls had placed the two candidates virtually level. Polling stations were scheduled to close at 5.00pm local time (2000 GMT) on Sunday, but the country’s Supreme Court extended voting by two hours after complaints that public transport problems had prevented some people from reaching polling stations, following a request from President Lula.

The fiercely contested election effectively became a referendum on whether Brazil would remain one of Latin America’s few leftist governments or join the region’s shift to the right, a movement championed by US President Donald Trump.

‘Brazil can’t stand another four years like this, everyone’s life has gotten worse,’ Bolsonaro said outside a polling station.

Bolsonaro had said he would place Brazil in ‘the Lord Jesus Christ’s’ hands, while promising to take tougher action against crime and reduce government spending if elected.

But pollsters said stronger-than-anticipated turnout helped carry Lula to victory. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of the consultancy Think Policy, said voters had opted for Lula’s familiar approach rather than Bolsonaro’s more unpredictable alternative.

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‘People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights,’ he said.

Throughout the campaign, Lula highlighted a record of declining poverty and inequality. He also pointed to record-low levels of unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation during his third term.

Lula warned that Bolsonaro would reduce welfare spending, reverse social progress and surrender Brazil’s sovereignty to US President Donald Trump, whose State Department had led a campaign to return the Bolsonaros to power.

Lula’s victory denies Trump a significant addition to the growing group of friendly right-wing governments in Latin America that have aligned themselves with Washington’s positions on security and migration.

Celso Amorim, a former Lula foreign minister, told Reuters the leftist ‘would be very important for establishing a point of balance in Latin America. Lula is that balance.’

Lula becomes the first candidate since Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s to be elected after finishing second in the first round.

Lula, who was president between 2003 and 2011, campaigned on a potent mix of pragmatism and populism that has shaped his career in national politics for half a century, rolling out a slew of reforms aimed at improving the lives of workers and poor Brazilians.

These gained steam with late-campaign pledges that ranged from free nationwide weekend public ​transport, which has to be formally submitted to Congress, to a ‌15% increase in his trademark welfare program that is already being implemented.

Lula also championed a constitutional amendment that became Brazil’s biggest labor reform in decades, which passed with wide support in Congress.

But Lula’s fourth term could be his most difficult yet, after Brazil elected its most conservative Congress since returning to democracy in the 1980s.

Combined, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) and allied parties could control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, enough for comfortable majorities in both chambers.

‘He is likely to be a lame duck from the start,’ said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.

The incoming legislature will likely deepen recent trends of presidents ceding power to Congress, Stuenkel said, predicting Lula will face waning influence over Supreme Court nominations, unwieldy party coalitions, and even the threat of impeachment.

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