The Trump administration has privately told Gulf allies to prepare for the possibility of a brief but intense US military assault on Iran once the midterm elections have concluded.
The warning was delivered to several Arab governments in the Gulf through a combination of diplomatic contacts and military communications, according to The Wall Street Journal.
US forces across the region are already taking precautionary steps, replenishing weapons stocks and positioning bombers and fighter aircraft for potential operations.
An additional Patriot air-defense battery is being transported from Texas to Israel, while American personnel have been shifted away from Middle Eastern bases considered vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.
Although Trump has pledged not to launch an attack before the midterms, he has yet to authorize a final operation. Officials say he is increasingly inclined toward a large-scale strike after the election, potentially targeting Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities.
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” the president said at a rally last week, invoking the heavy US-Israeli bombing campaign carried out in the spring. He then added: “Or they’ll agree.”
Iranian officials have warned, both publicly and through private channels, that any US attack would be met with retaliatory strikes against economic and civilian sites throughout the region.
Diplomatic intermediaries in the Middle East are racing to restart negotiations before fighting resumes. Their efforts, however, have produced few results as Washington insists on addressing Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran demands strict conditions of its own.
Israel has prepared its own potential targets, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to advocate renewed attacks aimed at weakening Iran and eventually toppling its government
The Pentagon is coordinating the planning for possible US strikes against Iran after the midterm elections
A Patriot missile-defense system is being sent from Texas to Israel as US forces move away from Middle Eastern bases exposed to potential Iranian attacks
A second carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are expected to reinforce the roughly 20 US warships currently deployed in the region next month, although some ships may be rotated out as part of the buildup.
Israel is also finalizing its own operational plans. Netanyahu remains determined to pursue further strikes, arguing that they could erode Iran’s military strength and, ultimately, threaten the survival of its regime.
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The White House declined to address what it called “sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.” Officials reiterated that Trump has kept every option available as he seeks to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
A renewed bombing campaign would mark a major departure from the administration’s current economic pressure strategy. Sanctions and a naval blockade have reduced Iran’s oil exports, severely disrupted air travel and weakened overland commerce for months.
By the middle of October, the conflict had entered its eighth month and cost an estimated $47.1 billion, according to figures provided to lawmakers. That total does not include damage inflicted on US military bases.
The conflict has also pushed up fuel prices and increased other household expenses, creating additional political problems for Republicans with the midterm vote only days away.
Surveys indicate that voters in several closely contested states are moving away from the GOP, raising the prospect that Republicans could lose their majorities in both the House and Senate.
Of the overall cost, approximately $29 billion was spent on weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot interceptors.
Iranian leaders have warned that any new attack could trigger strikes on civilian and economic targets across the Middle East
A return to bombing would be a sharp pivot from the economic squeeze, in which sanctions and a naval blockade have choked off Iran’s oil sales for months
An oil tanker burns after being hit by an Iranian strike in the ship-to-ship transfer zone at Khor al-Zubair port near Basra, Iraq, late Wednesday, March 11
Iran made similar threats before the war began, then followed through by hitting US bases, diplomatic facilities, energy sites and airports throughout the Gulf.
Any fresh retaliation would come as America and its Gulf partners race to restock missile defenses drained by repeated Iranian barrages.
Tehran still holds hundreds to thousands of missiles and is assembling new ballistic missiles from stockpiled parts, a pace of rebuilding that has alarmed Israeli officials.