Netanyahu Gains Ground as Vote Count Tightens, but Majority Eludes Him

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc made gains Wednesday morning as Israel counted ballots in its first national election since the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7, 2023. Even so, the bloc remained short of the majority required to form a government, raising the prospect of another period of political deadlock.

With about 70% of the vote counted, Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious alliance had secured 54 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, compared with 47 for the main opposition and 19 for Arab parties, according to partial results reported by Israeli media. Likud was the leading party with 27 seats, while former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party had won 20.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot declared victory Tuesday night. But Israelis told News Media that, while they had anticipated a close contest, the rapidly changing figures and uncertainty over who could assemble a governing coalition had left many unsure about what would happen next.

Although Netanyahu’s bloc was ahead, parties outside it collectively held 66 seats—enough for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. That gives the opposition a possible route to challenge Netanyahu, provided it can win adequate backing from Arab lawmakers.

The partial count represented a shift from the initial exit polls released Tuesday night, which triggered celebrations at Eisenkot’s campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. Eisenkot urged Netanyahu to acknowledge the result and leave office. Later, at Likud’s Jerusalem headquarters, Netanyahu said his party had emerged as the largest and called for the creation of a strong right-wing government.

The election has therefore moved beyond the vote itself and into what could be a complex and protracted struggle to build a coalition.

President Donald Trump claimed credit Wednesday morning for Netanyahu’s stronger-than-expected showing, suggesting that his endorsement helped change the race’s trajectory.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump shared a statement by Irving C. Schwartz arguing that Trump’s endorsement of “Bibi Netanyahu” had turned the momentum. Instead of a decisive defeat for what Schwartz called “a Great Prime Minister,” he wrote, the election appeared headed for “a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu.”

Speaking to reporters near Air Force One later, Trump said he had heard the exit polls were inaccurate and that Netanyahu had performed very well. “It was pretty close, but very well,” Trump said, adding that the endorsement “helped him a lot.”

“It’s a little bit early, but I’m hearing in Israel, top people say, ‘Wow! He did a lot better than people thought.’ It’s looking like maybe a stalemate or a win,” Trump added.

Arab parties could hold the key

Arab parties are emerging as a decisive factor in determining which side can form Israel’s next government.

The partial count showed the Joint List with 13 seats and Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, with six, giving Arab parties a combined total of 19 seats.

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Abbas indicated that he was open to negotiations, saying politicians from both sides of Israel’s political divide had contacted him.

“Everyone is talking to us, not just the change bloc,” Abbas told Israel’s Channel 12.

Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, explicitly called for a new government that would cooperate with Arab parties. “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120—65 is greater than 55. That’s how Israeli democracy works. Period,” Golan wrote on X. He also rejected Netanyahu’s distinction between Jewish and Arab political support, saying every Israeli citizen’s vote should have equal value. “The vote of an Israeli citizen in Tira is worth exactly the same as the vote of an Israeli citizen in Givat Shmuel,” he wrote.

Golan’s calculation was based on an earlier point in the vote count, but his comments underscored a growing divide within the opposition over whether Arab parties should be included in a future coalition.

Eisenkot has previously opposed bringing Ra’am into his coalition, while Netanyahu has warned against forming a government that relies on Arab parties.

Three possible paths to forming a government

Netanyahu could attempt to expand his current coalition by winning support from at least seven lawmakers outside his right-wing and religious bloc, which would bring him to the 61 seats needed for a conventional parliamentary majority.

Alternatively, Eisenkot could seek enough parliamentary recommendations, potentially including those of Arab parties, to persuade President Isaac Herzog to give him the first opportunity to form a government.

Those recommendations would not necessarily require Arab parties to join a future coalition. However, Eisenkot would still need enough parliamentary support to secure a confidence vote.

A third possibility is another deadlock, with neither leader able to form a government and Israel potentially facing another election.

The final outcome remains uncertain as vote counting continues, including ballots cast by soldiers and other voters using special voting procedures.

Official results are scheduled for Nov. 4, after which Herzog will consult with parliamentary factions and select a lawmaker to attempt to form the next government.

That candidate will initially have 28 days to negotiate coalition agreements, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. 

Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu will remain prime minister.