When Will We Know Who Controls Congress? It Could Take Weeks

WASHINGTON – Tuesday’s election will determine which party controls Congress, but the timing of that answer remains uncertain.

The Associated Press will call contests in all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate races being decided this year.

House control goes to the party that reaches 218 seats. Republicans currently have 219 members in their caucus, only one above the threshold for a majority with every seat filled. Two House seats are vacant.

In the Senate, Democrats need 51 seats to control the chamber, while Republicans need 50 because Vice President JD Vance can break a tie in favor of his party. Republicans now hold a 53-47 advantage.

The timeline varied during the most recent midterm election. In 2022, the AP called Senate control four days after Election Day, while the House majority was not determined until eight days later.

The 2024 presidential election produced a wider gap between the two chambers. The Senate outcome was called the day after Election Day, but the AP needed eight days to call control of the House.

Ballot counting can take several days in some states. California, the nation’s most populous state, often receives thousands of mail ballots on Election Day. In 2022, half of California’s votes were counted after Election Day.

Alaska and Maine, both home to important Senate races this year, add another complication: They use ranked-choice voting.

A candidate wins outright by receiving more than 50% of the vote in the first round. If no candidate reaches that mark, the contender with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and those ballots are redistributed according to voters’ second choices. Multiple rounds can substantially delay the final result.

The AP does not issue projections. It declares a winner only when it concludes that no possible outcome would allow the trailing candidates to overcome the gap.