Experts now observe a significant transformation in the Middle East conflict, noting that Iran’s nuclear pursuits are no longer the primary issue. This shift of focus has instead turned global attention towards the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for almost 20% of the world’s oil supply.
Amidst rising tensions, the United States has resumed military activities against Iranian positions, as the breakdown of a prior memorandum of understanding stalled progress towards peace. This included reinstating a naval blockade around Iran’s ports and the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
In a recent development, President Donald Trump proposed a controversial 20% toll on ships navigating the strait. However, the plan was swiftly abandoned following intense opposition from international bodies such as the UN’s maritime agency.
The situation remains volatile, with reports from US Central Command indicating that Iran has targeted seven commercial ships in just the past week. These actions, against vessels attempting to traverse unauthorized passages, have resulted in multiple casualties, with sailors reportedly killed, injured, or still unaccounted for.
Over the past week, Iran has struck seven commercial ships for attempting to pass the contested waterway along routes it has not authorised, US Central Command has said, leading to nearly a dozen sailors being killed, injured, or missing.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said two “offending” supertankers had been hit and disabled after ignoring repeated warnings in the strait. They added on Wednesday that the US was making a “mistake” by assuming reimposing the blockade it lifted in June would force them to negotiate.
The Strait of Hormuz is not only a vital oil route. Disruption to shipping since the war began five months ago has also restricted supplies of fertiliser, helium and other industrial and medical essentials, pushing up food and fuel costs worldwide.
Shifting focus to the Strait of Hormuz
David Smith, an associate professor of American politics and foreign policy at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, told SBS News the developments over the last few days have been a dramatic demonstration that the war’s parameters have shifted.
“The original issue about Iran’s nuclear program now just seems completely remote,” he said.
“The next stage of conflict is going to be all about the Strait of Hormuz.”
At the outbreak of the war, the US claimed to be seeking a permanent end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the destruction of its military, and the end to support for regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran has maintained its nuclear program is for civilian energy purposes, not weapons development.
While Trump has frequently repeated his demand that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon — and threatened to strike a suspected nuclear site in north-central Iran known as Pickaxe Mountain on Tuesday — the MoU he signed in June deferred a decision over Iran’s nuclear program while attempting to immediately resolve the Strait of Hormuz issue.
The effective closure of the waterway has resulted in higher fuel costs in the US, which is deeply unpopular with American voters who will cast ballots in the midterm elections in November.
While Smith said there has been some adaptation through the minimisation of fuel usage, its continued strangulation will result in “everything” getting more expensive.
However, he argued that the conflict has even broader implications for global trade, as countries bordering similar international chokepoints eye their own potential toll-setting.
“What the United States committed itself to in the 20th century was to use its overwhelming naval might to ensure free shipping around the world,” Smith said.
“If the US is giving up on that, then who knows what possibilities they’re opening up.”
What does Iran want from the strait?
Iran’s own conditions for peace include the right to enrich uranium, which it says is for civilian energy purposes, an end to international sanctions, and, increasingly, for other nations to recognise its right to control the Strait of Hormuz — which it has threatened to charge cargo ships up to US$2 million ($2.86 million) to pass through.
The MoU stated that Iran would open the strait for free passage, pending the establishment of a US$300 billion ($429 billion) reconstruction fund, largely funded by the US.
On Wednesday, the IRGC, which has struck several regional neighbours in recent days, said it will close further oil and gas export routes unless the US backs off.
It did not elaborate on which routes could be affected, but senior Houthi allies in Yemen have warned that they are ready to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea.
Such a move could send oil prices to US$200 ($286) per barrel, the Houthi resistance said, if they similarly attacked shipping passing the narrow waterway used by Saudi Arabia to export its reserves.
International maritime law professor Donald Rothwell of Australian National University told SBS News that there is a long-standing international precedent regarding “international straits” that guarantees freedom of navigation in the world’s strategic shipping channels.
Could the rules of global shipping unravel?
The result of the US-Iran conflict could be a “possible unravelling” of that accepted precedent, Rothwell said, with even small global actors like the Houthis now emboldened to cause global disruption for political ends.
Experts disagree, Rothwell said, over whether or not the Trump administration is leading a fundamental collapse of “core post-World War Two values” or whether Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu are “temporary disruptors” in a system that will rebalance itself when they leave office.
What other nations permit Iran to do with the Strait of Hormuz is fundamental to that question.
While the rising importance of the so-called “middle powers” like Australia and Canada and their role in stabilising the global order was emphasised by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in January, Rothwell noted that “not much has happened since then, other than debate and discussion”.
He added that the resolution of the conflict — now expected to be significantly further off than it might have been at the start of July — will not change the geography. Smith agreed.
“From now on, the possibility that Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz is always going to be a piece of leverage,” Smith said.
“The only way out of that is going to be some kind of agreement where the terms are favourable enough to Iran that it won’t have an incentive to shut the Strait down.
“This is a really remarkable development.”