Key Insights from AP Decision Notes: Anticipating Outcomes in Oregon’s Primaries

WASHINGTON – As Oregon gears up for its primary elections on Tuesday, Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is poised to defend her position against nearly two dozen contenders vying for both state and federal positions. This election will also see voters decide on a crucial statewide ballot initiative aimed at increasing gas taxes to fund improvements for the state’s roads and bridges.

Amidst the backdrop of a midterm election year, national political dynamics are heavily influencing the primary landscape. Historically, such years have seen the incumbent president’s party suffer setbacks at the polls. Governor Kotek has been vocal in her campaign, positioning former President Donald Trump as a key opponent. Meanwhile, the vote on Measure 120, which proposes raising vehicle fees and gas taxes for transportation infrastructure, is set against the backdrop of rising fuel costs following the onset of the Iran conflict.

In her quest for a second term, Kotek faces nine challengers within her own party. The Republican primary is crowded with 14 hopefuls, including notable figures such as Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell, State Representative Ed Diehl, State Senator Christine Drazan, and Chris Dudley, a financial planner and former NBA player. Dudley made a significant bid for governor in 2010, securing approximately 48% of the general election vote.

Incumbents are also seeking reelection in the U.S. Senate and all six of the state’s U.S. House seats, with only one congressional member running unopposed for renomination.

The critical battlegrounds for both Democratic and Republican primaries include Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties in the Portland area, alongside Lane County, home to Eugene. Additionally, Marion County near Salem, Jackson County, and Deschutes County are significant contributors to the voter turnout in both parties’ primaries.

Dudley won the 2010 primary for governor with 39% of the vote against eight candidates. Of the most populous counties, he carried Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas and Washington counties and placed second in Lane County.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Oregon elections are conducted predominantly by mail. Ballots delivered to a ballot drop box or a county elections office must be received by 8 p.m. local time, which is 10 p.m. ET and 11 p.m. ET. Counties have the option to keep their locations open longer. Almost all of the state observes Pacific time, so the deadline in those areas is 11 p.m. ET. Some of the state observes Mountain time and the deadline there is 10 p.m. ET. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by 8 p.m. local time and received by May 26 to be counted.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, state Senate and state House, as well as for Measure 120 and the nonpartisan race for state labor commissioner.

Who gets to vote?

Voters must be registered with a political party to participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

How many voters are there?

As of May 4, there were about 3.1 million registered voters in Oregon, including about 988,000 registered Democrats and about 737,000 registered Republicans.

How many people actually vote?

Registered Democrats cast between 420,000 and 456,000 votes in the 2024 primaries, depending on the contest, while registered Republicans cast just shy of 300,000 votes.

Turnout was higher in the 2022 midterm primaries, when Democrats cast between 478,000 and 492,000 votes and Republicans cast between 347,000 and 370,000 votes.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

Oregon has conducted vote-by-mail elections since the 1990s. Ballots may also be delivered to drop boxes and county elections offices.

As of Friday, nearly 513,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

Since Oregon elections are conducted predominantly by mail, results from mail voting are released throughout the night and the following days. A handful of smaller counties release all or most of their results from Election Day voting in their first vote report.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 presidential and state primary, the AP first reported results at 11 p.m. ET just as the final polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 5:11 a.m. ET with about 74% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Recounts in Oregon are automatic in the event of a tie vote or if the vote margin is 0.2% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 168 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.