Jim Chalmers has been rated Labor’s weakest-performing senior politician in a new voter survey.
The latest Newspoll, published by The Australian on Sunday, found that only 24 per cent of respondents were satisfied with Mr Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer. Forty per cent were dissatisfied, 16 per cent were neutral and 20 per cent said they had not heard of him.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen recorded an even lower satisfaction rating, at 19 per cent. However, his dissatisfaction score was lower than Mr Chalmers’ at 32 per cent, while 33 per cent of voters said they did not know who he was.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong was the best-known senior Labor minister in the poll and recorded a satisfaction rating of 38 per cent.
Defence Minister Richard Marles and Health Minister Mark Butler were the least recognisable figures, with 54 per cent of respondents saying they had not heard of either minister.
Labor’s primary vote has continued to slide, falling to 27 per cent. One Nation was ahead on 28 per cent, while the Coalition recovered some ground to reach 21 per cent.
The Greens secured 13 per cent, with other parties accounting for the remaining 11 per cent.
Labor’s lowest recorded primary vote in a Newspoll was 26 per cent, recorded in 2011 when Julia Gillard was prime minister.
Jim Chalmers had 40 per cent of voters dissatisfied with the job he is doing as Treasurer
Labor under Anthony Albanese is 1 per cent off its lowest primary vote in a Newspoll on record
The poll surveyed 1,200 voters from Monday to Thursday last week.
Anthony Albanese remained the preferred prime minister on 44 per cent, ahead of Pauline Hanson on 30 per cent and Angus Taylor on 26 per cent.
Dr Chalmers’ weak polling comes as households continue to grapple with the cost-of-living crisis and the Treasurer faces pressure over persistent inflation, which has contributed to a series of damaging interest rate rises.
Financial markets are pricing in another rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day.
The Reserve Bank will meet on Monday and Tuesday before announcing its decision about an hour ahead of the Melbourne Cup.
Bond markets and most economists are forecasting a rate hike after hotter-than-expected inflation data and hawkish comments from RBA governor Michele Bullock over the past month.
An oil shock in the Middle East and a surge in artificial intelligence investment have added to pressure on Australia’s already supply-constrained economy.
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The RBA’s preferred inflation gauge, the quarterly trimmed mean, rose by one per cent in September, exceeding the central bank’s forecast of 0.8 per cent.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock is expected to raise the interest rate again on Tuesday
Underlying inflation has now remained above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band for 20 consecutive quarters.
Recent remarks from Reserve Bank officials show the bank is increasingly worried about how persistent inflation has been.
‘Although the jobs market is showing clearer signs of weakening, and falling housing prices are starting to feed through to stalling growth, we see the RBA prioritising the high inflation challenge and hiking in November,’ HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.
Mr Bloxham estimated a recession was a fifty-fifty chance and predicted the unemployment rate to tick up to 5.1 per cent.
Unlike the post-Covid pandemic years, the Reserve Bank is in no mood to shield households from the worst impacts of its inflation fight.
A fifth rate rise this year would bring the cash rate to 4.85 per cent – the highest level since 2008.
It would also mean a household with a modest $600,000 mortgage would pay an extra $456 on monthly interest repayments compared to January this year, according to financial comparison site Canstar.
The decline in borrowing capacity, stretched affordability and Labor’s curbs on property investor tax breaks have hit house prices.
The housing downturn is on track to be the deepest on record and property data firm Cotality will provide another snapshot on Monday.
Home values fell 1.1 per cent in September.
While consumer confidence has plunged, helped by rising rates and falling house prices, household spending has held up relatively well.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported spending was up 6.8 per cent in the 12 months to August.
NAB expects another strong monthly rise of 0.8 per cent when September figures are released on Monday.
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