Labour’s conference in Liverpool is unfolding amid renewed speculation about a snap general election, despite Andy Burnham insisting that the prospect is “dead”.
The latest major voting projection suggests Labour’s electoral position has strengthened significantly as delegates gather for the party’s annual conference.
Research from the non-profit organisation More in Common estimates that Labour would win 250 parliamentary seats if an election were held now—around 140 more than its July projection.
The figures put Labour comfortably ahead of Reform, which is projected to take 147 seats. That represents a fall of 146 seats compared with the party’s estimate just three months ago, although it would still mark a dramatic rise from its 2024 result. The Conservatives are forecast to secure 125 MPs.
Labour would nevertheless remain short of an overall Commons majority under the projection. However, a potential alliance with the Liberal Democrats, on 63 seats, and the SNP, on 27, could allow the party to form a government.
The possibility of a so-called “rainbow coalition” has unsettled figures on the Right, amid concerns that Mr Burnham could agree to significant concessions, including another referendum on Scottish independence.
More in Common estimates that tactical voting could deliver Labour a further 25 constituencies. That would potentially give the party a majority with Liberal Democrat support alone.
More in Common’s latest projection suggests Labour would win 250 seats if voters went to the polls now—about 140 more than its July estimate
During a marathon series of pre-conference interviews on Friday, Mr Burnham said he was “knocking dead” suggestions that an election would be held before 2029
When tactical voting is taken into account, Reform’s total could drop to 117 seats, allowing the Conservatives to move ahead on 132.
Calling an election now would represent a major gamble for the Prime Minister, given the Government’s historic majority and the fact that almost three years remain in the current Parliament.
Supporters of an early election argue that Labour could improve its standing during a campaign and convert its recent polling gains into more seats.
But Mr Burnham used a lengthy round of broadcast interviews ahead of the conference on Friday to dismiss claims that he was preparing to call an election before 2029, saying he was “knocking dead” the rumours.
In an interview with the BBC in Liverpool, he indicated that a social care plan would need to be agreed before any election. He said he remains determined to include such a policy in Labour’s manifesto.
More in Common’s analysis uses the MRP method, which applies polling data to the demographic make-up of individual constituencies to estimate how each area might vote.
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The organisation surveyed almost 16,000 adults between August 21 and September 21.
Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, said the contrast with last year’s Labour conference was striking. At that time, the group’s MRP model suggested Reform could approach a three-figure majority, while Labour and the Conservatives were each projected to fall below 100 seats.
He said the latest figures showed that the electoral landscape had changed dramatically, with Andy Burnham now serving as Prime Minister.
Mr Tryl also warned that “volatility has become the new watchword” of British politics, noting that almost half of all projected winners are expected to take their seats with a margin of less than five percentage points.
The latest snapshot points to a major shift in party support since Mr Burnham became Prime Minister
A year ago Reform were seen as on track for a landslide victory
‘The other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers – giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform,’ Mr Tryl added.
Mr Tryl said the poll suggested Mr Burnham was ‘sensible’ to rule out an early election.
‘While Labour is off its death bed, the party’s recovery is far from complete,’ he said.
‘To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss.’
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