Hurricane Isaias Expected to Strengthen as It Heads Toward Florida, Alabama and Mississippi Coasts

WASHINGTON — Isaias moved toward the U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday as the Atlantic season’s first hurricane, triggering mandatory evacuations, school cancellations and government closures in parts of Florida.

Forecasters expected Isaias to strengthen quickly before bringing hurricane-force winds and a potentially deadly storm surge to the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi. The storm was projected to come ashore along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday, Oct. 9, or early Saturday, Oct. 10. Heavy rain and flooding could spread inland through the weekend, reaching the Tennessee Valley.

“We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said during a midmorning briefing. “Today is the day to prepare and get ready and be in your safe place by tomorrow as conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the northern Gulf Coast as Isaias approaches.”

As of late Thursday morning, Oct. 8, Isaias had maximum sustained winds of roughly 85 mph and was traveling east-northeast at 10 mph, according to the hurricane center. Its center was located about 380 miles south of the Mississippi River’s mouth.

Gulf Coast communities accelerated preparations. Officials in the Alabama cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach told tourists to leave immediately, warning that bridges could be closed by midday Friday. At least four Florida school districts canceled classes later in the week, and several counties ordered evacuations in vulnerable coastal zones. The governors of Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency across dozens of counties ahead of the storm.

Dauphin Island, a 15-mile barrier island off Alabama, also urged some residents and visitors to consider leaving voluntarily.

“That area is traditionally very vulnerable to storm surge — saltwater flooding — and that is also where most of the visitors are,” Mayor Jeff Collier said Thursday, referring to the island’s western end.

Collier said he did not expect extensive damage, while cautioning that hurricanes can change quickly. “These things are very fickle and a little jog here or there or some last-minute increase in strength, we just have to be prepared for the worst,” he said.

Storm surge combined with high tide could push water 5 to 7 feet above ground level in parts of Alabama and Mississippi, the hurricane center said. Isaias could also deliver as much as 15 inches of rain along sections of the Gulf Coast and generate tornadoes from Alabama through the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia between Friday night and Saturday. The storm was expected to weaken rapidly after landfall.

The National Weather Service warned communities from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Gulf County, Florida, to prepare for the possibility of “long-duration power outages.”

Isaias formed more than four months into the Atlantic hurricane season, missing by just one day a 121-year-old record for the latest-forming first hurricane. The National Weather Service said the record was set in 1905, when the season’s first Atlantic hurricane developed on Oct. 8.

The Atlantic season has been unusually subdued because of a strong El Niño, a climate pattern that disrupts storm development over the ocean. Meanwhile, activity in the Pacific has been above average, with Tropical Storm Simon forming Wednesday off Mexico.

SEE ALSO: Hurricane Isaias Warning: Life-Threatening Conditions Expected Ahead of US Landfall

Isaias is headed toward a stretch of coastline with extensive experience facing major hurricanes.

Hurricane Camille, one of the deadliest storms of the 20th century, killed more than 250 people after striking near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina devastated Mississippi communities, flooded New Orleans and claimed nearly 1,400 lives in 2005. In 2018, Hurricane Michael destroyed homes and buildings around Panama City, Florida.

Oil and gas companies also shut down a substantial portion of offshore production in the Gulf ahead of the storm. The region supplies nearly 15% of the crude oil produced annually in the United States.

By Wednesday, approximately 25% of regional oil output had been temporarily suspended, removing about 511,000 barrels per day from the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. The agency said eight of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.

With oil prices already elevated, the production cuts were large enough to influence markets, although previous Gulf hurricanes caused greater disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research at S&P Global Energy. He said the bigger concern was whether Isaias would strike near refineries as a powerful hurricane.

The storm’s inland track could also interfere with Saturday’s college football matchup between longtime rivals Georgia and Alabama, which President Donald Trump planned to attend.

In Alabama, Gulf Shores and Orange Beach officials issued a statement urging people in low-lying areas to evacuate voluntarily.

Gulf Shores resident Maranie Adams gathered water and other supplies as her family moved belongings, including a hot tub motor, to higher ground. Her family planned to ride out the storm at home, roughly a half-mile from shore, sheltering indoors alongside their flock of chickens.

“We’re having to get crates to bring them into the house so they don’t blow away,” Adams said. “It’s going to be noisy.”

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for 40 counties, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared one for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The state also planned to deploy a Miami-based urban search and rescue task force.

In Pensacola, electric utilities were pre-positioning crews to quickly repair any power outages. City officials provided sand for residents to fill sandbags to protect their homes against flooding. And Mayor D.C. Reeves urged people to check on older adult neighbors and others who might need help.

“Obviously no need to panic at this point,” Reeves told a news conference. “This is really about preparation.”

Rico reported from Atlanta, Collins from Hartford, Connecticut, and Golden from Seattle. Associated Press journalists Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, and Julie Walker in New York contributed to this report.