NOAA Predicts a Calmer 2026: Below Average Hurricane Activity Expected in the Atlantic

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is projected to have below-average activity, as announced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The anticipated reduction in storm activity is attributed to the influence of El Niño, which is expected to develop soon and continue throughout the season, the agency revealed on Thursday.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30.

NOAA estimates that there is a 55% probability that the season will see below-average activity, predicting between eight and 14 named storms, which include tropical storms and more severe systems.

The agency also forecasts that there could be three to six hurricanes, with one to three potentially escalating to major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher.

NOAA’s hurricane outlooks predict overall seasonal activity, though levels of activity can vary throughout the six-month season. It does not predict how many storms will make landfall or specific locations where landfalls might occur.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season brought 13 named storms, just below the long-term seasonal average

While there were no landfalling hurricanes in the United States last year for the first time in a decade, the season still proved to be consequential, producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa, which devastated Jamaica.

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