Tyler Robinson is expected to learn within hours whether he will be ordered to stand trial in the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, a ruling that could ultimately expose him to a possible death sentence.
Robinson, 23, is due in court Tuesday for a critical hearing, where a judge will hear final arguments and determine whether prosecutors have presented enough evidence to move forward with a murder trial over Kirk’s fatal shooting at Utah Valley University nearly a year ago.
The proceeding is closed to the public and comes after months of tense legal clashes in the case. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty, while Robinson has not yet entered a plea.
Kirk’s parents arrived at the courthouse arm-in-arm, wearing somber expressions as they waited for the judge’s decision — one that could place Robinson on course for a capital trial.
Inside the courtroom, Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, sat alongside them and at one point briefly covered her face with her hands as the judge weighed whether still images from the shooting would be shown.
Robinson’s lawyers have offered no alternative theory for Kirk’s death, instead mounting a two-pronged fight to keep the case from going to trial and capital punishment off the table.
The unusually long preliminary hearing is set to come to a close Tuesday, with attorneys delivering closing arguments before District Judge Tony Graf is expected to announce his decision from the bench, according to the Bangor Daily News.
Robinson turned himself in just one day after the deadly shooting at the open-air campus event last year and now faces a single charge of aggravated murder – an offense punishable by death.
Tyler Robinson is set to learn whether he will stand trial for the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk – a decision that could put the death penalty on the table
Kirk’s parents arrived at the courthouse arm-in-arm, their faces grim as they awaited the decision
Robinson is accused of firing a single shot into Kirk’s neck, killing the 31-year-old father-of-two during a Turning Point USA event at the Orem campus on September 10, 2025
The hearing follows months of fiery courtroom battles, with prosecutors pursuing the death penalty. Robinson has yet to enter a plea
Six additional serious charges are also hanging over him, including witness tampering.
At the heart of the arguments will be whether Utah County prosecutors have enough evidence to support the aggravated murder charge.
The case could carry even harsher consequences if prosecutors can also prove Robinson targeted Kirk because of his political beliefs.
Several outcomes are now possible. Graf could opt to send Robinson to trial on the lesser charge of murder, which carries a sentence of 15 years to life behind bars, according to the outlet.
The judge could also dismiss the charges against Robinson entirely, though prosecutors could then refile the case.
The defense has argued that prosecutors have failed to establish probable cause for the murder charge, but experts say Graf is unlikely to take it off the table just yet, according to Fox News Digital.
‘We’re at a preliminary hearing stage, so we’re at a very low burden,’ Skye Lazaro, a Salt Lake City-based defense attorney not connected to the case, told the outlet.
‘It’s probable cause, and everything is taken in a light most favorable to the state,’ she added.
Robinson’s lawyers have offered no alternative theory for Kirk’s death. They mounted a two-pronged fight to keep the case from going to trial and the death penalty off the table
Robinson turned himself in just one day after the deadly shooting at the open-air campus event last year and now faces a single charge of aggravated murder
District Judge Tony Graf will make a decision from the bench Tuesday. He could opt to send Robinson to trial on the lesser charge of murder, which carries a sentence of 15 years to life
The judge could also dismiss the charges against Robinson entirely, though prosecutors could then refile the case
One key question is whether Robinson endangered others when he allegedly opened fire on Kirk in a crowded area, putting innocent lives at risk.
Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent and SWAT sniper who now teaches at Utah Valley University, said the alleged danger to the crowd should be enough for the aggravating factor to survive at this stage of the case.
‘There are all sorts of things that could happen in the very instant you pull that trigger,’ he told the outlet.
Robinson is accused of firing a single shot into Kirk’s neck, killing the 31-year-old father-of-two during a Turning Point USA event at the Orem campus on September 10, 2025.
Even the most highly trained law-enforcement snipers would consider the shot dangerous, Rogers said.
‘When you have a rank amateur that is shooting, it’s clearly, clearly very dangerous,’ he told Fox.
Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, is also expected in the Provo courtroom Tuesday as the judge begins hearing oral arguments from both sides at 10am Utah time.
The hearing will be livestreamed despite objections from Robinson’s lawyers, who argue that the case’s intense nationwide coverage threatens their client’s right to a fair trial.
One key question in the murder charge is whether Robinson endangered others when he allegedly opened fire on Kirk in a crowded area, putting innocent lives at risk
Prosecutors argued that numerous people were ‘within a zone of danger’ when Kirk was shot from a rooftop more than 400 feet away
Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, and his parents, Robert and Kathryn Kirk, are expected in the Provo courtroom Tuesday
The high-stakes development comes after prosecutors spent five days in July laying out what they called ‘overwhelming’ evidence against Robinson.
Witnesses and experts testified, while prosecutors unveiled new photographs of the rifle allegedly used in the killing.
They also presented recorded testimony from Robinson’s former romantic partner and roommate, images of their text messages and surveillance footage from UVU.
In a recent 19-page court filing, Robinson’s lawyers pushed back on the aggravating factor, arguing it was ‘speculative’ to claim he ‘knew he could miss his target,’ according to the document reviewed by the Daily Mail.
Instead, the defense argued that the shooter ‘hit the intended target’ with a single bullet and posed no danger to others in the crowd.
But prosecutors countered that it was a reasonable inference, arguing Robinson ‘loaded his rifle with four cartridges’ and had previously practiced shooting, where he ‘seldom hit the bullseye and sometimes missed the target completely.’
Because he knew that he could have missed, the state argued that numerous people were ‘within a zone of danger’ when Kirk was shot from a rooftop more than 400 feet away.
The poor-aim argument is one of two pillars of the state’s case for aggravated murder and the death penalty. The other centers on an engraved bullet that prosecutors say points to a political motive.
The case could carry even harsher consequences if prosecutors can also prove Robinson targeted Kirk because of his political beliefs
Prosecutors said a bullet allegedly found in the suspected murder weapon was inscribed with ‘Hey Fascist! CATCH!’ – evidence, they argued, that Kirk was targeted because of his politics
Before his death, Kirk and the conservative organization he co-founded, Turning Point USA, helped galvanize young voters and mobilize support for President Donald Trump
Prosecutors have said a bullet allegedly found in the suspected murder weapon was inscribed with ‘Hey Fascist! CATCH!’ – evidence, they argued, that the right-wing influencer was targeted because of his politics.
They also cited a text message Robinson allegedly wrote about Kirk: ‘I had enough of his hatred. Some hate can’t be negotiated out.’
Before his death, Kirk and the conservative organization he co-founded, Turning Point USA, helped galvanize young voters and mobilize support for President Donald Trump’s successful bid for a second term.
Kirk’s views on same-sex marriage and transgender surgeries were sharply at odds with those of Robinson, who was reportedly in a romantic relationship with his roommate, Lance Twiggs, the state argued.
They said Twiggs told investigators that Robinson had been considering a gender transition around the time of Kirk’s killing.
During the same July hearing, prosecutors revealed a handwritten note Robinson allegedly left for Twiggs that read in part: ‘I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I took it.’
But Robinson’s attorneys argued that the message and handwritten note fall short of proving the killing was politically motivated.
DNA evidence also emerged linking Robinson, investigators said, to the suspected murder weapon – a bolt-action rifle with one spent round – and a tool allegedly used to engrave the bullet cartridges.
DNA evidence also emerged linking Robinson, investigators said, to the suspected murder weapon – a bolt-action rifle with one spent round
Prosecutors cited a handwritten note Robinson allegedly left for his former romantic partner, Lance Twiggs (pictured), that read: ‘I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and I took it’
Twiggs said Robinson had never talked about Kirk before the shooting and rarely discussed gender issues or LGBTQ+ rights
In a recorded interview, Twiggs said Robinson had never talked about Kirk before the shooting and rarely discussed gender issues or LGBTQ+ rights. He did, however, sometimes talk about politics, including President Donald Trump.
In the aftermath of the shooting, Robinson’s former romantic partner allegedly told investigators that Robinson confessed to killing Kirk and admitted he ‘wished he hadn’t done it.’
Meanwhile, Robinson’s attorneys repeatedly cast doubt on the reliability of the DNA tests and other evidence.
The defense unsuccessfully tried to block the public release of the Twiggs interview, warning that prosecutors would seize on it as a confession.
Even if the case moves forward, Utah-based attorney Lazaro warned that the legal sparring could continue for months before Robinson ever faces a jury, he told Fox News.
‘I do think we’re going to see a lot more litigation come down the road in terms of 1102 and expert-witness designations, forensic testimony on the ballistics and things like that,’ she told the outlet.