The Horn of Africa is increasingly viewed as being on a knife’s edge. After explosions reportedly linked to drones struck Ethiopia’s capital in early October, the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa warned American citizens about the risk of “long-range attacks.”
Analysts say Ethiopia and Eritrea face a high risk of sliding into a renewed war, amid growing regional support and involvement on both sides.
Cameron Hudson, a former CIA analyst and National Security Council Africa director, said the Trump administration needs to take a more active role. He told News Media, “Regional leaders will say privately that they don’t want a regional war. But with so many armed actors and so much meddling going on in each other’s countries, a regional conflagration becomes increasingly likely. It is this kind of miscalculation that the Trump administration needs to be working now to guard against.”
In a warning posted online, the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa said it “is aware of reports of possible long-range attacks directed at Ethiopian military installations on several instances in October of this year. U.S. citizens should accordingly exercise caution and follow the advice of local authorities.”
The embassy also warned Americans about disinformation, saying that “some social media accounts contain false and misleading reports about the security situation in Ethiopia.” It urged U.S. citizens to check information against multiple sources and rely on credible reporting.
Explosions in and around Addis Ababa, primarily near military facilities, have reportedly occurred. However, it has not been established that drones crashed into buildings in the major African city, which is home to the headquarters of the African Union.
Requests for comment sent to the Ethiopian government were not returned.
Analysts say there is a high probability that Ethiopia and Eritrea are about to erupt in a new war. (Getty Images)
Blen Mamo, executive director of the Ethiopian Horn Review think tank, described the reports as potentially alarming. “If identified as an aerial or drone attack, they exceed the capabilities of Ethiopia’s domestic insurgent groups, confirming Ethiopia’s allegation of foreign state involvement,” Mamo told News Media.
Rebel factions fighting Ethiopia’s government have united under the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition has claimed responsibility for the attacks in Addis Ababa and said drones were used.
Destroyed ammunition lies on the ground beneath the charred wreckage of an abandoned truck damaged by a drone strike during fighting between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces in Adi Mesno, Southern Tigray region, Ethiopia, Oct. 9, 2026. (Reuters)
Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, a regional expert with the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data research group, is also concerned that drones could usher in a new phase of the conflict. “Should the Alliance for Survival possess drone capabilities, it could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the conflict, refocusing strategic control on aerial dominance,” Birru told News Media.
In early October, Ethiopian forces drove rebel groups from Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. The operation brought an end to a four-year ceasefire between Ethiopia and the country’s northernmost region.
Members of the Ethiopian Federal Police (EFP) patrol aboard a pickup truck as they resumed operations after federal forces pushed back the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Mekelle on Oct. 9, 2026. Ethiopia and Eritrea each accused the other of starting a war of aggression as an internal Ethiopian conflict threatened to escalate into a regional war. Over the past week, the Ethiopian army has pushed back the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and seized their capital city, Mekelle, with Ethiopian Airlines saying flights to the city would resume from Oct.11. (AFP via Getty Images)
Last week, reports alleged that Eritrean troops had crossed into Ethiopia. While those claims have not been independently verified, News Media reviewed multiple videos that appear to show large truck convoys carrying uniformed soldiers through the Ethiopian city of Adigrat. Addis Ababa is then said to have launched drone strikes and forced the Eritrean troops back across the border.
The latest tensions were driven largely by Ethiopia’s push to secure access to Red Sea ports. Ethiopia became landlocked after Eritrea gained independence in 1993. During a speech marking the start of a new five-year term on Oct. 5, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said maritime access was “of vital importance to Ethiopia’s civilization.”
“Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea,” he added.
Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) gather in front of Mekelle Alula Aba Nega International Airport after federal forces retook control of the facility in Mekelle on Oct. 6, 2026. (AFP via Getty Images)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is another potential source of regional escalation. Egypt and Sudan have opposed Addis Ababa’s construction of the dam on the Blue Nile, arguing that it affects downstream access to water. This month, Egypt formally aligned against Ethiopia by forming a coalition with Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
The State Department has been pursuing diplomatic efforts to ease the tensions. A spokesperson told News Media that Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker met this month with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and held talks with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos.
Also, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Frank Garcia met with Minister Saleh. The spokesperson added, “Both U.S. officials underscored the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity for all countries in the Horn of Africa.”
Following these discussions, State Department spokesman Thomas “Tommy” Piggott released a statement, saying, “Increasing cross-border tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have the potential to affect the entire region. The Horn of Africa cannot sustain another military conflict and humanitarian crisis. A conflict jeopardizes ongoing U.S. collaboration on shared interests with both countries.”
Piggott added, “We strongly urge Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors, exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue and cooperation as agreed in their 2018 peace framework. Peace through dialogue is the only path toward sustainable security, economic growth, and prosperity.”
The Horn Review’s Mamo told News Media the reality on the ground is “increasingly pointing toward a conflict that may prove impossible to avoid,” and warned of Egypt’s motives: “Parallel military and technical cooperation with Asmara (the capital of Eritrea) also adds strategic depth along Ethiopia’s northern frontier, while Egypt’s expanding role in Somalia and Red Sea port initiatives extends its regional influence.”
“The situation in Ethiopia and in the region is extremely dynamic,” analyst Cameron Hudson told News Media. Hudson added, “The question remains, given the weakness of the internal (rebel) coalition, will external forces attempt to step in and exert greater leverage against Abiy.”
He continued, “We are seeing Eritrea begin to move forces into Ethiopia, while a coalition of regional states including Somalia, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea have issued a statement that amounts to a veiled threat against Ethiopia and its regional ambitions to establish a Red Sea naval presence and expand a series of hydroelectric dams on the Nile. The entire Horn of Africa region is on a knife’s edge and it is being made only more complicated by Houthi efforts to shut Red Sea shipping and the war in Iran.”
Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade during a celebration of Ethiopian Defense Force day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. (Amanuel Sileshi/AFP via Getty Images)
“The risk of regional conflict remains high,” Hudson said. “Egypt would be happy to see Ethiopia bogged down in internal conflict and unable to pursue its ambitions on the Nile and in the Red Sea. Similarly, Sudan hopes that internal conflict in Ethiopia distracts Addis from its support of the rapid support forces militia in Sudan’s war.”
“Local disputes can quickly become regional and international disputes with global consequences very quickly in this corner of the world,” Hudson added, “Closure of the Bab el Mandab Strait, owing to unchecked tensions and violence across the Red Sea, will quickly be felt in the U.S.”
