In an unexpected twist, stock and oil futures experienced a dramatic surge in trading activity just moments before President Donald Trump announced a significant update regarding Iran on Monday morning.

Around 6:50 a.m. in New York, trading volumes for S&P 500 e-mini futures on the CME spiked sharply, deviating from the generally quiet premarket atmosphere, according to CNBC reports.

Simultaneously, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures also encountered an unusual increase in trading activity, disrupting the typically calm early-morning market.

Just 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump took to Truth Social to reveal that the United States had initiated talks with Iran and that he was putting a halt to planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

Following Trump’s announcement, S&P 500 futures climbed by over 2.5 percent prior to market opening, while oil prices took a sharp downturn, with West Texas Intermediate futures dropping nearly 6 percent immediately after the news broke.

The coordinated moves across equities and crude meant that anyone who had bought stock futures and sold or shorted oil contracts just minutes earlier would have locked in substantial gains.

It is that precise timing and the lack of any obvious public announcement before Trump’s post that has rattled traders and drawn scrutiny.

The sequence is now raising questions about whether someone may have acted on advance knowledge of the president’s announcement. 

S&P 500 e-mini futures saw a sharp spike in volume at approximately 6:50am on Monday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures showed a similar surge in trading activity (file photo)

An LED sphere screen shows information inside the new location of the prediction market online platform Polymarket called ‘The Situation Room’, during its opening day last week

The trades were spotted by the X account Unusual Whales which specializes in tracking ‘unusual’ trading activity

The trades were spotted by the X account Unusual Whales which specializes in tracking ‘unusual’ trading activity. 

‘Just five minutes before Trump’s announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold,’ the account stated.

‘These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.’

Early-morning futures markets are typically thinly traded, meaning large orders can stand out more dramatically than during regular hours – but it was the size and coordination of the trades, across two major asses that appeared striking.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group have not commented on the activity.

Some analysts cautioned that algorithmic or macro-driven trading strategies can generate sudden flows without a clear headline trigger. 

Still, the pattern of a burst of aggressive positioning immediately followed by a major geopolitical announcement, has intensified speculation that certain traders may have been informed ahead of the news being made public.

That suspicion is now being amplified by parallel activity in the fast-growing world of prediction markets, where bets on geopolitical events are increasingly drawing scrutiny.

At 7:05am  Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about US-Iran talks and halting planned strikes. S&P 500 futures rose more than 2.5% following the announcement. Oil dropped  6% 

Shayne Coplan, pictured, is the CEO and founder of Polymarket, the platform on which the lucrative bets were placed

Traders who bought equity futures and shorted oil beforehand would have profited significantly

On the crypto-based platform Polymarket, a cluster of newly created accounts placed unusually large wagers over the weekend on the likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire.

Eight accounts, all reportedly created around March 21, collectively staked nearly $70,000 on a ceasefire occurring before March 31. 

If successful, those bets could return close to $820,000.

The timing of those wagers raised eyebrows among analysts, particularly because they coincided with shifting signals from Trump who in recent days has alternated between escalating rhetoric and suggesting he might ‘wind down’ military operations.

Ben Yorke, a former researcher with CoinTelegraph who now works on an AI trading platform, said the activity showed characteristics that can be associated with insider knowledge.

The wallets ‘definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info,’ Yorke said to The Guardian pointing to the pattern of bets and the apparent splitting of positions across multiple accounts.

Such ‘wallet-splitting,’ he explained, can sometimes indicate an attempt to conceal the size or identity of a single investor. 

‘Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,’ Yorke said.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has said previously  his online prediction market is more accurate than opinion polls

Polymarket accounts are anonymous, making it extremely difficult to trace who is behind specific trades.

Adding to the intrigue, a separate account that previously bet on US strikes against Iran and won had also been created shortly before that event and has reportedly placed no other wagers.

Meanwhile, the platform’s own implied probability of a ceasefire surged from just 6 percent on March 21 to 24 percent by Monday, with more than $21 million now riding on the outcome.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have rapidly become a new frontier in geopolitical speculation, allowing users to wager on everything from military actions to diplomatic agreements.

But the features of speed, anonymity, and global access that make them attractive, also make them difficult to police.

Recent reporting has highlighted concerns that such platforms could be used to profit from non-public information tied to sensitive events, including military operations and diplomatic negotiations.

Even so, insiders caution that having advance knowledge may not guarantee success in this particular market. 

The Polymarket contract requires formal confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that a ceasefire has been reached – a high bar that introduces uncertainty even for well-informed traders.

On Monday, a significant explosion rocked an oil refinery near the Texas coast, sending thick plumes of smoke skyward and prompting nearby residents to seek shelter indoors, according to officials.

The incident occurred at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur, located roughly 90 miles east of Houston. Fortunately, no injuries were reported, as confirmed by Mayor Charlotte M. Moses. She advised residents in certain areas on the city’s west side to remain indoors while emergency responders, including firefighters, tackled the situation.

“Yes, there was an explosion, but we’re all safe,” Mayor Moses reassured the community. “Efforts are underway to extinguish the fire as swiftly as possible.”

This explosion adds to the current tension in the oil market, which is already experiencing a surge in gas prices due to the uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict involving Iran.

The Valero refinery, with a workforce of approximately 770, is capable of processing around 435,000 barrels of oil daily. It specializes in refining heavy sour crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as detailed on Valero’s website.

Images and video posted online show a large plume of smoke and flames billowing out from the refinery. Some residents reported hearing a loud boom and seeing their windows shake.

“For your safety please remain in place until the ‘All Clear’ is given by emergency personnel,” the City of Port Arthur said in a post on its Facebook page.

Texas state Rep. Christian Manuel said in a post on social media that the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality had arrived at the refinery with air monitoring equipment and was working with local and state partners.

He told nearby residents to stay inside.

“Please limit outdoor activity, keep windows and doors closed, and follow guidance from local officials,” he said.

In a recent interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remained noncommittal about the possibility of another White House bid. When Hannity directly questioned him about a future presidential run, DeSantis replied with a noncommittal, “We’ll see.”

At 47, DeSantis is nearing the end of his gubernatorial term, which concludes in January 2027, just ahead of the 2028 presidential primaries. His tenure as governor is limited by term restrictions.

Previously, DeSantis was seen as a strong contender against Donald Trump in the Republican primaries for the 2024 presidential race. However, he withdrew from the contest following a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.

In the Iowa caucuses, former President Trump had a commanding lead, surpassing DeSantis by approximately 30 percentage points.

Trump topped DeSantis by roughly 30 percentage points in Iowa.

DeSantis argued that had Trump not been running in 2024, he would’ve garnered the support of most of the president’s backers. 

“In 2024, like in Iowa, the people that voted for Trump – if he wasn’t running – I would’ve gotten like 90% of those people,” the governor said during his appearance on the “Hang Out with Sean Hannity” podcast. 

“They were conservative voters, right?” DeSantis continued. “They didn’t want the non-conservative – they wanted me.” 

“The timing didn’t work out, obviously, for that.” 

The latest 2028 GOP presidential primary polls show Vice President JD Vance is the overwhelming frontrunner in the race. 

Vance received 40% support in an Echelon Insights survey released last week. 

The same survey showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio polling in second with 16% support. 

DeSantis pulled only 5% backing, behind the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., who garnered 9% support. 

A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll of New Hampshire primary voters similarly found DeSantis receiving only 5% support in the Granite State – tied with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Vance was the top choice of New Hampshire Republicans, receiving 46% support, followed by Rubio at 27%, according to the poll released Monday.

Hannity’s full interview with DeSantis airs Tuesday.

The father of 18-year-old Rodrigo Montes, overwhelmed with emotion, has made a heartfelt plea for assistance in locating his missing son.

Rodrigo, affectionately called Rico, vanished after attending a social gathering on Sunday evening.

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“The only information we have is that he attended a barbecue with plans to head home afterward, but he never returned,” shared his brother, Adolfo Montes.

According to Rico’s family, the River Forest High School senior mentioned he would be getting a lift home from a friend.

In the early hours that followed, authorities in Lake Station discovered a vehicle submerged in Deep River, close to 27th Avenue and Wyoming Street, at approximately 4:30 a.m. on Monday. Police suspect that a “male subject” was inside the truck.

Rico’s family says the truck belonged to his friend and spoke with ABC7 about their exchange with that friend.

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