Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future is on the line as Israelis cast their ballots today in an election with potentially far-reaching consequences for the Middle East.
The long-serving prime minister is narrowly behind his principal challenger, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, in Israel’s first national vote since the October 7 massacre.
The country’s deadliest day has dominated the campaign, turning the election into what many voters regard as a verdict on the devastating security breakdown that preceded the attack.
As voters make their way to polling stations, they will see images of fallen soldiers displayed on train station walls, alongside faded yellow ribbons commemorating the hostages. The final captives were released under a ceasefire agreement last year.
Mr Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has attempted to place responsibility for the failures surrounding October 7 on security officials. At the same time, he has highlighted Israel’s military gains against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and their backer, Iran.
Donald Trump reinforced his backing for Mr Netanyahu yesterday, despite tensions between the two leaders after the war with Iran strained their relationship.
The US President called on Israelis to return Mr Netanyahu to office, saying the two men could work together to ‘finish the job’ in Iran.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future hangs in the balance as Israel goes to the polls today
In a post on Truth Social, Mr Trump urged voters to remember that ‘Bibi has been an outstanding warrior prime minister!’
He wrote: ‘Israel was called the little satan, with the United States being called the big satan, by some very evil people.
‘There can no longer be the chant heard around the world of ‘Death to America, death to Israel,’ and there won’t be.’
The standoff with Tehran has become a central theme of Mr Netanyahu’s campaign. He has promised to cooperate with President Trump to remove the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme.
Mr Eisenkot, the former Israel Defense Forces chief, has countered that Mr Netanyahu invokes Iran when it benefits him politically and has failed to deliver on his stated objectives in the war.
The prime minister’s political survival could also depend on roughly 70,000 Israeli expatriates returning home to vote. Many are expected to support his rival.
Hannah, a businesswoman from North West London who spent 11 years living in Israel, is among those who have made the journey. She says she wants to see a change at the top.
Speaking to the Daily Mail, she said: ‘This election is existential for the soul and future of Israel. I felt so strongly about its importance that I made a special trip back to Israel to cast my vote.
‘I will be voting for Gadi Eisenkot because I believe our country desperately needs clear, strong and ethical leadership — leadership that can restore trust, bring people together and heal the divisions that Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to bridge.
‘If Itamar Ben-Gvir and the extreme right continue to hold positions of power in the Israeli government, I fear Israel will become a country whose values no longer reflect those I believe in and identify with.’
Leader of the Yashar party Gadi Eisenkot addresses his supporters during the final campaign rally
Israeli citizens living overseas generally cannot vote by mail, through a proxy or at an embassy. Except in limited circumstances, they must travel back to Israel to cast their ballots in person. The US-based non-profit AID Coalition estimates that as many as 67,000 Israelis are returning for the election, with about half coming from the United States and the remainder from Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
For many expatriates, the importance of this election outweighs the cost and inconvenience of returning home to vote.
The latest polling by Israeli broadcasters placed Mr Eisenkot’s Yashar party a few seats ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud.
But securing the largest number of seats would not, by itself, guarantee victory. The election is likely to be followed by complicated coalition negotiations, with any prospective government needing the support of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset.