Benjamin Netanyahu Faces Coalition Showdown as Rivals Vie to Form Israel’s Next Government

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s grip on power faces a critical test Wednesday, when President Isaac Herzog starts consulting with leaders of every party elected to the 26th Knesset. After those meetings, Herzog will decide which lawmaker should receive the mandate to build Israel’s next government.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee released the final results last Friday. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot captured 48. A governing coalition requires at least 61 seats.

Netanyahu wrote on X Monday that “the public in Israel does not want a government that depends on Ra’am and the Joint List—parties that support terrorism and reject the existence of the Jewish state.”

“A clear majority in the Jewish public chose the Likud as the largest party and me, as prime minister, to lead the next government,” Netanyahu added. “We aspire to form a broad government with our partners and with any party that wishes to do so and does not support terrorism. I am open to holding discussions on the matter.”

The two predominantly Arab parties targeted in Netanyahu’s remarks—Ra’am and the Joint List—won a combined 19 seats, giving them a potentially decisive role in negotiations over the next coalition.

A source within the Joint List told News Media that the alliance is expected to recommend Eisenkot as the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government. If both Arab-majority parties support him, Eisenkot would receive backing from parties representing more than the 61 seats required for a majority.

The lawmaker chosen to form the government will have 28 days to complete the task. Herzog can authorize an extension of as many as 14 additional days.

Herzog’s consultations will take place in ascending order of party size. He will begin with Religious Zionism-Zehut and Shas, which each won six seats, before meeting with Yisrael Beiteinu, which secured seven.

On Thursday, Herzog is scheduled to meet with United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit, which each won seven seats. The meetings will then continue with The Democrats and Ra’am, each with eight seats; the Joint List with 11; BeYachad with 12; Yashar with 21; and Likud with 27.

Amir Oren, a commentator on defense and government affairs, told News Media that although Herzog has the formal authority to choose the lawmaker given the mandate, he would likely favor the candidate backed by parties representing a Knesset majority.

“He must then task Eisenkot with forming the next government. That does not mean Eisenkot will succeed. If he fails, he will have to return the mandate to the president,” Oren said.

Even with that support, Eisenkot could face serious obstacles in putting together a 61-seat coalition. Opposition leaders hold competing views, and BeYachad chief Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman are unlikely to join a government dependent on the Joint List because of its pro-Palestinian positions and opposition to Zionism.

One possibility is an opposition-led minority government, with Arab parties supporting the administration from outside the formal coalition.

Israel has never formed a minority government immediately after an election, but outside support arrangements have emerged during previous Knesset terms. Most recently, during Netanyahu’s current term, an ultra-Orthodox party left the coalition over a dispute involving military conscription while continuing to back the government from outside.

Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit and Shas each confirmed to News Media on Tuesday night that they would recommend Netanyahu to Herzog during the consultations on forming the next government.

Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told News Media that Bennett and Liberman’s recent decision to endorse Eisenkot indicates they may be moving away from the possibility of a national unity government.

“I think it would behoove Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Bennett and former Defense Minister Liberman to find a way to work together now, given the imminent clash between the apocalyptic death cult known as the Iranian regime, Israel and, by extension, the rest of the Western world,” he said.

Complicating matters for Netanyahu, the 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Nov. 10. Its newly elected members are expected to begin forming committees and advancing legislation, while the current prime minister and ministers remain in office and continue carrying out their duties under the oversight of the new parliament, ensuring continuity of government.

“They are doing everything they can to push Netanyahu out of office, and we are seeing that now with discussions about replacing the Knesset speaker. They can then begin trying to advance legislation in a Knesset with 19 seats held by Arab parties that would be very uncomfortable for Netanyahu,” Diker said.

Oren highlighted another potential challenge, suggesting that the caretaker government’s ability to launch military operations could face political constraints, potentially complicating any resumption of hostilities with Iran, even if U.S. President Donald Trump were to initiate such action.

Former Knesset member Dov Lipman told News Media that Eisenkot appears likely to be the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government, but suggested that most Israelis favor a national unity government built around Likud, Yashar and BeYachad, with one or more smaller parties also joining.

“As a first step, Eisenkot may approach Likud and ask it to join a government under his leadership, which Likud will reject. Eisenkot will then have to make a decision, as Liberman is unlikely to agree to serve in a government alongside Arab parties,” Lipman said.

“Eisenkot will likely fail to form a government, after which the mandate will pass to Netanyahu, who will also likely fail.”

That would trigger a 21-day period during which any Knesset member could attempt to form a government with the backing of at least 61 lawmakers. If the process reaches that stage, Eisenkot might agree to serve under Netanyahu for two years to avoid sending the country to another election, Lipman said.

Prof. Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, told News Media that Netanyahu would need to make concessions to persuade opposition leaders that he would honor his commitments, given their experience with the 2020 power-sharing agreement with then-Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz.

Under the agreement, Netanyahu was to serve as prime minister for the first 18 months, with Gantz serving as alternate prime minister and defense minister before taking over as premier on Nov. 17, 2021. However, the arrangement unraveled after the government failed to pass a state budget by the December 2020 deadline, triggering the Knesset’s automatic dissolution and new elections. Gantz never assumed the premiership.

Rahat pointed to Israel’s 1984-1988 national unity government as a precedent, saying a similar arrangement could work.

“At the time, Israel was still embroiled in the Lebanon War, with IDF forces deployed in the country, while the economy was facing a severe crisis, with annual inflation exceeding 400%. Against that backdrop, Likud and Labor formed a national unity government under a rotation agreement, with Shimon Peres serving as prime minister for the first two years, followed by Yitzhak Shamir for the next two,” he said.

While large parts of the public would likely support it, Rahat said, there are still issues that may create tension.

“They will have to freeze the judicial overhaul launched by Netanyahu’s government, find a way to investigate Oct. 7, as demanded by opposition parties and agree on a mechanism for Netanyahu to leave office when the time comes. But when it comes to major issues of security and the economy, unity governments can be quite effective,” Rahat said.

“Once they resolve the major challenges, however, they start fighting among themselves and the magic is over.”