In the lead-up to Australia’s federal election, set for May 21, thousands of citizens have already participated in early voting.
Since early voting commenced on Monday, projections suggest nearly half of Australians will have voted before the official polling day arrives.
Despite nearly two weeks remaining for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Anthony Albanese to influence the electorate with policy propositions and public appearances, these early voters are less likely to be swayed by upcoming developments.
Candidates pay close attention to early and postal voting trends, often tailoring their strategies to initiate policy announcements during this critical period in hopes of maximizing impact.
An early voter is captured casting his ballot at a Melbourne electoral center on Monday, May 9, 2022, under the watchful eye of his dog.
Ben Raue, election analyst at The Tally Room, said Coalition voters were more likely to vote early than their Labor counterparts.
‘In the past two elections, there has been a three to five per cent higher vote for Labor on the official election day than in pre-polling,’ he told Daily Mail Australia.
‘Despite losing the elections in 2016 and 2019, Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote among those voting on election day at both of those elections.’
About 42 per cent of votes were cast by pre-polling and postal voting in the 2019 election and the number is expected to rise again this time.
‘It may go over 50 per cent,’ Mr Raue said.
‘There will be a big increase in postal voting because of Covid. There has already been a big increase in the number of people requesting postal votes.’
In some of the state and council elections held during the pandemic, on-the-day voting was as low as 20 per cent, with the rest having pre-polled or voted by post.
But with 93.9 per cent of people now vaccinated, that will not be replicated in the federal election – though its popularity is increasing.
‘As the early vote has increased, this outcome has become more critical to deciding elections,’ Mr Raue said.
‘It would have been very hard to win an election despite losing the election day vote back in 2001, when almost 90 per cent of all votes were cast on the day.’
Staff members are seen at the early voting centre inside the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre on Monday, May 9, 2022
Ballot boxes are seen at an early voting centre in Melbourne on Monday, May 9, 2022
With pre-polling now a major part of the federal election, many people worry that something will happen between the day they voted and election day that may have changed their choice.
Mr Raue doesn’t agree with that: ‘The act of voting, regardless of when you do it, is final.
‘A party could release a policy after you’ve voted that might change your mind and wish you’d voted a different way, but equally they could do something a week after the election that makes you regret how you voted.
‘The biggest pre-polling days are always the Thursday and Friday before the actual poll, so there is not a lot of time left for regret for most people anyway,’ he said.