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in brief
- Iran has shown its willingness to join peace talks with the US should the latter withdraw a nearby naval blockade.
- A tenuous ceasefire between the two countries is set to expire on Thursday morning.
The United States remains optimistic that negotiations with Iran will proceed in Pakistan. Meanwhile, a high-ranking Iranian official indicated that Iran is contemplating participation, although significant obstacles persist as the ceasefire deadline looms.
President Donald Trump is pushing for a pact that curtails further spikes in oil prices and market instability. However, he maintains a firm stance that Iran must not acquire capabilities to produce nuclear weapons.
During an appearance on Fox News on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt conveyed that the US is “on the brink” of reaching an agreement with Iran.
Iran seeks to capitalize on its strategic position controlling the Strait of Hormuz to secure a deal that will prevent conflict renewal and alleviate sanctions while allowing its nuclear ambitions to continue unimpeded.
Initially dismissive of participation, Iran now appears to be reconsidering its stance. An official mentioned that the country is “positively reviewing” joining the discussions, marking a shift from previous declarations that rejected involvement and promised retaliation against US actions.
However, the official stressed that no decision had been made, and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that “continued violations of the ceasefire” by the US are a major obstacle to continuing the diplomatic process.
A Pakistani source involved in the discussions said there was momentum for talks to recommence on Wednesday and Trump could attend in person, or virtually, if a deal were to be signed.
“Things are moving forward and the talks are on track for tomorrow,” the source said on Tuesday on the condition of anonymity.
Araghchi told his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, in a telephone call that Iran, while taking all aspects of the matter into account, had yet to decide how to proceed further.
The two-week ceasefire in a conflict that has killed thousands and roiled the global economy, particularly energy markets, is set to expire this week.
Oil prices down amid optimism over talks
Oil prices fell and stocks bounced back in early trading in Asia on Tuesday on expectations that talks would resume this week, after earlier meetings in Islamabad broke down without an agreement.
Oil prices had dipped in Monday trading on doubts over the talks.
But tensions remained high, with Iran’s foreign ministry condemning the US on Tuesday for what it called an attack on the Iranian commercial vessel Touska over the weekend, demanding the immediate release of the vessel, its crew and their families.
Trump said on social media that he believed his administration’s nuclear deal with Iran would be better than a 2015 international agreement reached after years of negotiations under then-president Barack Obama.
Trump withdrew from that agreement, which had been vehemently opposed by congressional Republicans and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in 2018, during his first term as president.
It was unclear what kind of agreement could be reached in just a few days of talks, but Trump predicted a quick result.
“I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Pakistan has been gearing up to host the talks despite uncertainty over whether they would go ahead.
Nearly 20,000 security personnel have been deployed across Islamabad, a government official and a security official said.
Ongoing blockade
The ceasefire had appeared in jeopardy after the US said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, and Iran vowed to retaliate.
A Pakistani security source said Pakistani mediator Field Marshal Asim Munir had told Trump the blockade was an obstacle to talks, and that Trump had promised to consider ending it.
The US was hoping to start negotiations in Pakistan shortly before the ceasefire expires.
However, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that “unconstructive and contradictory signals from American officials carry a bitter message; they seek Iran’s surrender.”
“Iranians do not submit to force,” he added on X.
Ceasefire set to expire
Trump announced the two-week ceasefire with Iran on 7 April and has not specified when precisely it ends.
A Pakistani source involved in the talks said it would expire at 10am AEST on Thursday, which would be 3.30am Thursday in Iran.
The US has maintained its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
Oil prices rose around 5 per cent as traders remained fearful that the ceasefire would collapse. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was at a virtual standstill with just three crossings in the space of 12 hours, according to shipping data.
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