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According to a recent report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), a potential conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran could severely impact global poverty levels, potentially pushing over 30 million individuals into poverty.
The 27-page report, unveiled on Tuesday, predicts that up to 32.5 million people worldwide might be driven into poverty due to disruptions in energy costs and supply, spikes in food prices, and reductions in economic growth. The analysis highlights the particular vulnerability of regions such as the Gulf, parts of Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and small island developing nations.
The report also indicates that Iran could experience a setback equivalent to a year and a half of developmental progress within the first month of hostilities, which commenced with U.S. and Israeli attacks on February 28.
“War reverses development, erasing years of progress in mere weeks,” stated UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo in the report. “Our latest analysis underscores that the ramifications of escalating conflict in the Middle East extend far beyond the immediate region, disproportionately affecting countries least equipped to handle the surge in energy and food costs.
“These nations face dire decisions between managing current price stability and investing in future health, education, and employment opportunities. This situation is both unacceptable and avoidable. Proactive policy measures are crucial,” he emphasized.
As of last Tuesday, the day before a two-week ceasefire went into effect, 1,701 civilians in Iran had been killed since the war began, including at least 254 children, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The next day, HRANA reported at least 20 attacks occurred in Iran over the prior 24 hours, resulting in zero casualties.
As for how impacted countries can mitigate the impacts of the conflict, the UNDP recommends as much as $6 billion in targeted and temporary cash transfers to poor and vulnerable households, along with temporary and targeted subsidies or vouchers for “consumption blocks” of electricity or cooking gas.
The UNDP does not, however, recommend blanket energy subsidies, as those “disproportionately” favor wealthier households and are “financially unsustainable over time.”
Over the weekend, U.S. and Iranian officials left Pakistan without reaching an agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear program and end hostilities.
Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation, said Monday that negotiators made “some progress” but were ultimately unable to strike a deal.
“Whether we have further conversations, whether we ultimately get to a deal, I really think the ball is in the Iranian court because we put a lot on the table,” Vance told host Bret Baier on Fox News’s “Special Report.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, said Sunday his side “engaged in good faith” to end the war.
“But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” he wrote on social platform X, referring to the U.S. “Zero lessons earned. Good will begets goodwill. Enmity begets enmity.”