Saudi Arabia Faces ‘Biggest Ever’ Threat to Oil Production From Houthi Attacks, Expert Says

Saudi Arabia is confronting what one regional analyst described as the most serious danger ever posed to its oil output, as Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen step up cross-border strikes and gain ground near the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told News Media on Thursday that tensions across the Middle East are intensifying. He said Iran had “likely instigated the Houthis to force a blockade on Saudi Arabia.”

“I think this situation is really precarious for the Saudis,” Abdul-Hussain said. “This is the biggest threat to their production of oil since their kingdom was founded in 1932. And this is almost existential.”

He said Riyadh appears to be seeking outside help to confront the mounting Houthi threat, including through outreach to President Trump. But Abdul-Hussain said he does not expect Washington to enter a conflict centered on the Bab el-Mandeb shipping route. “We’ll probably offer them advice and tell support, but I don’t think we, the United States, will get involved with this war over Bab el-Mandeb,” he said.

The risks to Saudi oil infrastructure have already become clear. Last week, the kingdom temporarily shut down its East-West oil pipeline after a drone strike launched from Iraq. Trump said he believed Iran was responsible. On Tuesday, Saudi forces also intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone that tried to enter airspace near Mecca, one of several recent incidents raising alarm in the kingdom.

Abdul-Hussain said Iran’s strategy is tied to U.S. restrictions that have sharply limited Tehran’s ability to sell oil through legal or illicit channels. “What the Iranians are trying to do is that they’re trying to telegraph to the other oil exporters in the region that either we export, all of us export oil, or none of us will export oil,” he told News Media. He said Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Saudi Arabia to redirect crude shipments westward, moving oil through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea before tankers sailed south via Bab el-Mandeb toward Asian markets.

That workaround, he said, undermined Iran’s pressure campaign. “Iran didn’t like this because clearly all or none didn’t work,” Abdul-Hussain said. “So they likely instigated the Houthis to force a blockade on Saudi Arabia.”

News Media reported Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to authorize military action against the Houthis.

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Trump then said the next day during a visit to Ireland that “the Houthis called us and they don’t want to fight with us.”

“They let us know, they don’t want to fight with us…they don’t want us to go after them,” Trump added. “But they have called and they have talked to us, and they don’t want us to, they would much prefer not having us involved.”

Abdul-Hussain told News Media that “Our expectation as Washington is that the Saudis, with all these arms that we’ve sold them over the past few decades, with all the military support and advice we give them, that they should be able to protect their own tankers and ships in this waterway and keep it open.

“The Houthis announced that they’re only going after Saudi ships and Saudi navigation and they made it clear that they are not going after international shipping, whether [they] are U.S. ships or European ships,” he continued. “So this forces a choice on us. Do we go to war with the Houthis out of nowhere, even though they’re not willing to, or at least they didn’t wage war on our ships and our navigations through Bab el-Mandeb?”

“Or we ask the Saudis to handle this, you know, after all the Houthis are not really a state, they’re a non-state actor and Saudi Arabia should be able to deal with them,” Abdul-Hussain added. “Unfortunately, the Saudis don’t seem to have been able to deal with the Houthis.”

A senior administration official told News Media on Thursday that the U.S. remains focused on protecting core national security interests such as the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea while simultaneously empowering allies in the region to manage and resolve security challenges.

The Trump administration also remains in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and Yemen over regional stability , the official added.

News Media has reached out to the Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., for comment.