A rare and unusually intense Super El Niño is taking shape this season, a climate pattern that could make the Northeast feel warmer than usual while keeping snowfall scarce through the fall and winter months.

The potentially disruptive weather event is an amplified form of a typical El Niño, which occurs when waters and air patterns across the Pacific warm beyond normal levels, setting off ripple effects in weather systems around the globe.

This developing El Niño is expected to push temperatures above seasonal averages across the region in the months ahead. At the same time, rain, snow and other forms of precipitation are projected to trend below normal, particularly early in the season, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson said.

“Warmth may linger through September, brief shots of cooler air should arrive in October,” Erickson told The Post on Sunday.

“El Niño is expected to play a greater role in the overall weather pattern by late fall and winter.

“Some snow is possible by late October or November if a storm happens to coincide with enough cold air. But it is too early to predict any specific event,” he said.

Once winter fully settles, some forecasts call for a still warm but then wetter season, with El Nino sometimes bringing elevated precipitation to the Atlantic Coast during the winter.

New York currently faces a roughly 50% to 60% chance of seeing higher than average precipitation between December and February, while its chance of higher than average temperatures during the same period are about 40% to 50%, according to CNN Weather.

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That means snow-loving New Yorkers may have their hopes dashed — and have to settle for a winter of rain and sleet instead of drifts of white stuff.

All of that is all the more likely to occur if the weather pattern becomes a Super El Nino, an extremely strong manifestation of the phenomenon, which would likely come to fruition by October.

El Ninos themselves are not unique phenomena — they happen every few years when temperatures across the Pacific equatorial region surge above average.

Those regions of warm air spark chain reactions which shift jet streams and seasonal weather expectations across the globe.

In the US, that typically means the Southeast experiences wetter and colder winters with more storms, while swaths of the Midwest becoming dryer and northern states see warmer temperatures.

The East Coast tends to have less predictable weather, though higher rain and coastal storms flowing up from the South are often expected, according to the American Geosciences Institute.

This year’s El Nino is shaping up to be one of the strongest on record — with there currently about a 70% chance of it becoming a Super El Nino.

New York City has already been swimming its way through a particularly wet August, with more than 8 inches of raining falling so far and making it the wettest August in five years.

The last time New York saw as much rain was in 2021 when more than 10 inches fell.

French tennis player Terence Atmane found himself at the center of a tense exchange with US Open medical staff after officials declined to give him treatment, citing tennis’ strict rules on cramping during matches.

Under the sport’s regulations, players are not permitted to take a medical timeout for cramps. Instead, any assistance for that issue is limited to brief treatment during changeovers or at the end of a set.

Atmane, however, insisted his problem was not cramping but a separate muscular pain, even though he had appeared to struggle physically earlier in his grueling five-set contest against Jaume Munar.

The dispute escalated late in the fifth set when Atmane requested the physio and grew visibly frustrated as the responding medical staff questioned whether his condition qualified for a medical timeout.

“I need treatment here, this is not cramping,” the 24-year-old said. “This is pain. I have pain.”

‘I’m telling you, I have pain. On both sides, before I was cramping, and now I have pain. You don’t understand? No, you don’t understand. I need treatment, I really need treatment right now.’ 

When told that he could not be treated if he was suffering cramp, Atmane turned up the volume.

‘This was not cramp, it’s pain. It was pain,’ he raged. ‘Excuse me, can you please give me treatment, and stop acting stupid. Is it possible to have some common sense? I tell him I have pain, why is he telling me no? I have pain.’

The tournament supervisor, called onto court to attend to the issue, urged Atmane to remember that the physio was a ‘medical professional’.  

‘It’s my body. I have pain on both there, so I need treatment there,’ Atmane replied, before speaking over the physio. 

‘What do you mean come on man? I’m telling you I have pain on both my legs. P-A-I-N,’ Atmane spelled out. ‘Pain. Not cramp. I know the rules, that’s why I’m asking you. It’s not a cramp, it’s pain.’

Despite his protestations, Atmane was refused treatment, but was unable to take no for an answer as the physio walked away.  

‘Come back, come back,’ he called. ‘What’s your credentials? I don’t know your name. No, no no, come back.’ 

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Atmane then rounded on the umpire as he was ordered to return to play, adding: ‘I have pain, and the guy says no. I’m telling him I have pain, and the guy says no. What does it matter? I get the name after this.’ 

Earlier in the match, Atmane was suffering so severely he was forced into limited movement and underarm serving in the third set. 

The Frenchman was two sets up against the Spaniard when he began to struggle, and first received medical timeout for a leg issue, before continuing to play impaired. 

Munar disagreed with the decision to award Atmane a timeout, and later accused Atmane of time-wasting and receiving extra on-court coaching, calling for the supervisor to complain directly. 

Atmane went on to receive a time violation for repeatedly taking too much time between points.  

World No. 55 Munar complained about his opponent’s conduct again in the fifth set after Atmane’s rant, but the pair exchanged a civil – if curt – handshake after Munar beat his rival 6-7(5), 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(4), 7-5. 

The drama on Court 13 throws into perspective the cloudiness which surrounds the rule, with the guidelines often criticised for inconsistent enforcement. 

Cramps are classified as a fitness issue, rather than injury or illness, with many players turning to esoteric methods like drinking pickle juice on-court to stave off the dehydration often at the root of the problem. 

But at this year’s Australian Open, a tussle between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev over the former’s on-court treatment turned ugly with the German accusing the tournament of not adhering to the regulations. 

The Career Grand Slam winner had been badly affected by the challenging heat in Melbourne, throwing up multiple times during their semi-final. 

His movement was later affected, and Alcaraz went on to request a medical timeout, which was granted.  

‘He has cramps,’ Zverev told the supervisor as Alcaraz received treatment. ‘What else should it be? This is absolute bulls***.’

‘That is unbelievable. That can not be. You can not be serious,’ he continued in a mixture of German and English. 

WASHINGTON — With Election Day just two months away, Republicans are behind in eight key battleground Senate contests, according to the RealClearPolitics average of public polling.

The GOP has already faced expectations of a difficult fight for control of the House, given the historical headwinds that often hit the party holding the White House. Now, the Senate landscape is showing growing signs of trouble as well, including in states once considered dependably red, such as Texas and Ohio.

“It points out the obvious that Republicans are in pretty bad shape going into the midterms and that they’re looking at historic losses,” Republican strategist Terry Holt told The Post, offering a blunt assessment of the party’s weak polling position.

“The question is whether some of these races can be saved with some miraculous turnout that apparently is going to be very expensive or whether or not the mood in this country can be changed fundamentally.”

The latest RCP Senate polling averages show Republicans trailing by 2 points in Alaska, 7.5 points in Georgia, 2.3 points in Maine, 1.8 points in Michigan, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2 points in New Hampshire, 8 points in North Carolina and 1.9 points in Texas.

One bright spot for the party is Rep. Ashley Hinson’s (R-Iowa) 1.4 percentage-point lead in the Hawkeye State over Josh Turek. The problem is Iowa appears to be far more competitive than it had been during recent cycles.

Democrats currently hold three of the battleground seats in contention, while Republicans have the other six. All of the battleground races in the RCP aggregate, except Georgia and North Carolina, are within what would usually be the margin of error in a typical poll.

“National Republicans have been sounding the alarm that midterms are hard since last year, and we’ve been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted,” one Republican operative involved in Senate races told The Post.

That operative stressed that “Republicans continue to believe we’ll hold the Senate” and pointed to a recent analysis about how polling in the summertime has typically made Democrats look stronger than they actually are during recent cycles.

In that analysis, Echelon pollster Patrick Ruffini noted that 3,312 polls had, on average, overestimated Democrats by 3.7 points over the past four election cycles. During the summer, the error rate was about 5.9 percentage points.

Republicans are sitting on a massive cash advantage over Democrats between President Trump’s super PACS and the official party groups that haven’t been fully put to work yet. There are also questions about how much one-time trillionaire Elon Musk will dip into his deep pockets.

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Moreover, there have been dramatic instances where the RCP aggregate significantly overestimated Democrats in the past. It had Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) down dramatically against Sara Giddeon, but she ultimately won by 8.6 percentage points in her 2020 reelection bid.

Recently, in Michigan, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed had a 10.2 percentage-point lead over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in RCP aggregate for his Democratic primary, but he only won by 1 percentage point.

“I’m seeing private polling in some of these [races] … where they’re continuing to underpoll Republicans and Trump voters,” veteran Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin said.

“I think the Republicans are in much better shape than what a lot of these media polls are showing, and look, we still got a long way to go between now and Election Day.”

This go-around, Trump won’t be on the ballot, posing complications for Republicans in turning out their base, while Democrats are likely to be highly motivated.

“One of the most important things is going to be for these campaigns to turn out Trump voters that don’t normally show up,” McLaughlin stressed, noting that he’s optimistic the GOP will be able to pull that off.

To achieve that goal, Republicans have been capitalizing on far-left radicalism this cycle, including the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which they hope will mobilize their base.

“Republicans are united in defeating Democrats’ socialist insurgency, which would raise taxes on working families to bankroll free benefits for illegal immigrants,” National Republican Senatorial Committee press secretary Bernadette Breslin said.

Most polls overwhelmingly show that affordability is at the top of voters’ minds heading into the midterms. That issue could get even more pressing in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, if Trump’s trade war with Canada doesn’t get resolved.

“I’m very suspicious of the RCP polling in general, but they do a lot of it, and it’s trackable,” Holt said of the aggregate. “The mood is sour, and I think nobody’s really questioning that, and even if you’re oversampling Republicans in your poll, you’re going to get that.”

“I think that might be the real problem that this doesn’t show how really, truly bad it is.”

FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — A powerful flash flood tore through part of Grand Canyon National Park, prompting the evacuation of dozens of people and sending massive boulders, metal debris and other wreckage into the Colorado River, according to the National Park Service.

The surge struck Bright Angel Creek, a tributary that feeds into the Colorado River, on Saturday afternoon. Fast-moving water destroyed footbridges spanning the creek, reshaped the surrounding terrain, widened the creek bed and appeared to carve out a new rapid in the river corridor.

Park officials said they were trying to gather information on more than 20 people who may be missing or unaccounted for following the flood. The agency urged anyone with knowledge of hikers or campers who had been in the area to contact authorities. Evacuation efforts continued Sunday in coordination with the Arizona Department of Public Safety.

“This is a reminder of what a dynamic and active landscape Grand Canyon is,” said Jack Schmidt, director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University.

Several high-traffic destinations, including Bright Angel Campground, Phantom Ranch and sections of the North Kaibab Trail, remained closed Sunday as crews assessed the extent of the damage, the park said. Colorado River rafting trips have also been suspended for the time being.

More than 60 people were evacuated from Phantom Ranch, which has a historic canteen and dorms, and is a common spot for rafters to get off and on the river. More evacuations were planned Sunday, the park said. No injuries have been reported.

Erica Viola said she was at Bright Angel Campground when the rain started Saturday afternoon, and she and about 50 other hikers watched the creek rise and then debris start to flow by, including what looked like a bunkhouse. The group was taken by helicopter to safety, ending her adventure two days early, she said.

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About half an inch to 1 inch (1 centimeter to 2.5 centimeters) of rain fell within about 30 minutes in the rocky area where there’s a steep drop in elevation, said National Weather Service meteorologist Justin Johndrow in Flagstaff.

“Most of it ran off instantly,” Johndrow said.

He said the flooding happened on the north side of the Grand Canyon, where Bright Angel Creek comes from the North Rim down to the Colorado River, dropping around 6,000 feet (1,828 meters).

More rain and thunderstorms were possible for the area into Monday.

___

Stengle reported from Dallas. Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina, and in Holly Ramer in Concord, New Hampshire, also contributed.

More than 20 hikers and backpackers are missing in Arizona’s Grand Canyon after sudden flash floods swept through parts of the national park.

The dangerous flooding struck sections of the famed canyon at about 2:30pm on Saturday, prompting an urgent search as officials work to locate at least 20 people who remain unaccounted for.

Park authorities believe the missing visitors may have been hiking in areas around Bright Angel Canyon and Phantom Ranch, two well-known destinations within Grand Canyon National Park.

Officials are also appealing to the public for information that could help identify anyone who was traveling along the North Kaibab Trail, from the North Kaibab Trailhead down toward Phantom Ranch.

The request includes people who may have been staying at Bright Angel Campground, as well as hikers or campers who were in the narrow canyon section known as “the Box,” located north of Phantom Ranch.

It is unclear who the 20 missing people are, or where they are from.

But 62 others were evacuated from the park yesterday amid the flooding. 

All footbridges spanning Bright Angel Creek were also destroyed in the freak weather event, meaning that pedestrians cannot get across the flooded creek.

The National Park Service said in a statement: ‘Grand Canyon National Park staff, in coordination with the Arizona Department of Public Safety, are continuing evacuation and response efforts and working to account for individuals who may have been in the affected area.’ 

Horrific videos from the scene in the Grand Canyon showed mudslides tearing through the landscape, as hikers filmed from a suspended bridge above. 

Large mounds of debris were also seen floating on the brown water.

Grand Canyon historian Tom Martin wrote on Facebook that the debris flow out of Bright Angel Creek – including sediment, trees, bridges and structures – had formed a dam that raised the effective height of the Colorado River by about eight feet.

Amid the devastation, hiker David J Gregory shared video footage from an Arizona State Trooper helicopter that rescued his group in coordination with the National Parks Service.

He told on Facebook how his hiking group had been brought to a local high school and were set up with a hotel at the Grand Canyon’s South Rim. 

RELATED: Grand Canyon Flash Flood: Search Underway for 20+ Missing

But the Black and Silver bridges, and traffic to the Colorado River in the area, remain closed ‘until further notice,’ due to debris in the water, authorities said. 

‘There is currently no estimated reopening date for these areas and other inner canyon closures may be necessary,’ a press release said.

In the meantime, Coconino County District Supervisor Lena Fowler said she is ‘so thankful to Governor Katie Hobbs for deploying the Arizona National Guard and to all the brave rescuers who worked to get the hikers and community members to safety.

‘Please take flash-flood warnings seriously: avoid canyons, washes, river beds and low-lying areas during storms even if the sky overhead is clear,’ she continued, noting: ‘Flash floods can arrive suddenly from rain miles away.

‘Check weather alerts before heading out, follow evacuation orders and never walk or drive through moving water,’ Fowler advised. 

‘If conditions worsen, move immediately to higher ground and stay until officials say it is safe.’

Her warning came as additional storms are forecasted.

A flood watch remains in effect for parts of northern Arizona, amid a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and a 60 percent chance on Monday.

The flash flooding this week came one year after the Dragon Bravo Fire burned a significant portion of the upper Bright Angel Creek watershed.

In the aftermath, the National Parks Service acknowledged there was a heightened flood risk, and installed steam gauges and other sensors upstream of Phantom Ranch to provide better warning of flash flood events.

‘We’re very worried about the risks to infrastructure at Phantom Ranch,’ Erica Byerly, who works for the US Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center in Flagstaff told the Arizona Daily Sun at the time. 

Phantom Ranch is a popular lodge among visitors and hikers. It is located near the Grand Canyon by Bright Angel Creek. 

This is a breaking news story.