While the world fixates on oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, a more pivotal energy saga is quietly unfolding far beneath the earth’s surface. This story could have lasting repercussions, extending well beyond any political accord that might end the fighting.

Art Berman, a seasoned petroleum geologist and energy advisor with over 40 years in the field, shared his insights with News Media. According to Berman, there are millions of barrels of oil production in the Persian Gulf that remain inaccessible, and the challenge of reactivating these wells goes far beyond the straightforward task of unblocking a strategic waterway.

“This could be a game-changer globally, even if the political problems are sorted out,” remarked Berman.

He highlighted a critical issue: 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf oil production are currently offline, contributing to a global reduction in oil output of about 10 million barrels per day.

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“We can move tankers around and we can obsess about, you know, are there 4 million barrels getting through or are there 6 million or 9 million or whatever the right number is,” he added. “But eventually, those tankers have to be filled with oil.”

A White House official, speaking on background, pointed to the sharp decline in oil prices following the signing of the MOU and said the Strait of Hormuz is open, with the U.S. naval blockade in full effect.

Berman’s estimate of Gulf shut-ins is broadly consistent with the latest assessment from the International Energy Agency. The IEA said in its Aug. 12, 2026, Oil Market Report, “Gulf oil production rose by a further 2.5 mb/d in July to 23.9 mb/d, still 8.3 mb/d below pre-war levels.”

Global oil supply remained 6.3 million bpd below year-earlier levels, according to the agency.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration offers a somewhat different estimate.

EIA assessed production shut-ins at an average 5.5 million bpd in July, while warning that continuing constraints on Hormuz transit had forced the agency to increase its forecast for shut-in production in August. EIA expects production and trade patterns to generally return to pre-conflict conditions in early 2027, but says some Gulf producers may not regain their previous output during its forecast period.

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‘Not like turning on a switch’

The distinction is important because much of the public discussion has centered on what the industry calls the midstream problem — whether tankers can safely transport oil through Hormuz — while Berman argues that the upstream problem of producing the oil itself could prove more enduring.

“The very last thing in the world I ever want to do is to shut in a well,” Berman told News Media.

Restarting a well requires restoring communication between equipment at the surface and reservoirs thousands of feet underground, he explained, and extended shutdowns can create complications inside the reservoir and well.

“This is not like turning on a switch for a light bulb,” Berman said. “It’s a complicated, high-risk, relatively long-term process, and we don’t know the outcome.”

Berman estimated that roughly 80% of affected wells could return close to their previous production levels, although he said that could take weeks or months. He said many of the remainder could require additional engineering work and some could ultimately produce at lower rates.

“Some of that production will never come back,” he predicted.

Other energy analysts agree that restarting Gulf production presents substantial technical challenges. But Wood Mackenzie is more optimistic than Berman about the ultimate recovery.

Its analysis projects that fields affected by the Hormuz closure could return to approximately 70% of their previous production within three months and 90% within six months, assuming a controlled restart. The final roughly 1 million bpd could take considerably longer.

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Berman also warned against assuming that a ceasefire or political agreement would immediately restore pre-war energy flows.

Shipowners, insurers and crews would first have to become confident that tankers could safely navigate the waterway, while other logistical and security issues could continue even after governments reached an agreement.

“A simple political agreement doesn’t mean the problem’s over,” Berman said.

‘A world-changing event’

Berman’s argument goes considerably further than predicting a slow oil-market recovery.

He contends that the Persian Gulf conflict represents a fundamental shock to the global energy and economic system — one whose consequences will persist even after the immediate crisis ends.

Asked about his comparison with the COVID-19 pandemic, Berman told News Media that the scale of oil production affected by the current crisis makes it comparable to the largest economic disruptions of recent years.

“This is not just a news cycle,” Berman said. “This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues.”

Why Americans are not insulated

The United States is the world’s largest oil producer, but Berman argues that does not isolate American consumers from the disruption.

“The oil market and the refined products market is global,” he told News Media.

Berman noted that U.S. refineries require different grades of crude to produce the country’s mix of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products, meaning domestic production alone cannot eliminate America’s exposure to international markets.

“The problem for the U.S. isn’t that we don’t have enough oil, we almost do,” Berman said. “It’s that the oil we have isn’t the right kind” for everything American refineries produce.

EIA reported July 15 that Hormuz disruptions had already pushed international buyers toward alternative sources of petroleum products, contributing to higher U.S. refinery margins, production and exports.

Whether that recovery proceeds as EIA expects or encounters the technical obstacles Berman warns about could determine how long the economic consequences of the conflict linger after the shooting stops.

For Berman, the question is no longer simply when tankers return to Hormuz. It is whether the global energy system that emerges afterward will ever operate quite the way it did before.

The White House pushed back on concerns that the disruption represents a lasting threat to U.S. energy security, pointing to record American production and blaming Iran for instability in the critical shipping corridor.

“Thanks to President Trump, the United States is now the world’s number-one producer and exporter of oil and gas. Record oil and gas production strengthens our energy independence and national security,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told News Media.

“The Iranian regime’s terrorist actions in the Strait of Hormuz have proven that our allies need to invest in reliable, affordable, and secure energy sources and advance new partnerships with the United States that enhance the world’s energy security,” Rogers added.

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News Media has reached out to the White House, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Defense Intelligence Agency for comment.

On Friday night, comedian Bill Maher took a spotlight to what he perceived as the Democratic Party’s inconsistent stance on religion, humorously noting that a candidate’s display of faith seems acceptable—unless that faith happens to be Jewish.

This segment followed an interview with CNN anchor Dana Bash, who addressed Texas Democrat James Talarico’s unabashed Christianity during “Real Time.” She remarked on how Talarico is vocal about his religious beliefs, considering it a potential asset in his political endeavors.

Maher responded sharply, quipping, “In the Democratic Party, it seems as long as you’re professing any faith other than Jewish, you’re in the clear.”

Bash, in agreement, simply added, “Well, you said it.”

To this, Maher quickly followed up with, “Indeed, I did, because it reflects the reality!”

Pew Research Center polling shows 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (80%) hold an unfavorable view of Israel, up sharply from 53% in 2022.

At the same time, 41% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed hold a negative view of the Jewish state.

Fifty-eight percent of those right-leaning voters have a positive view. 

The Democratic Party has also put forth a series of candidates, personalities and elected officials who espouse anti-Israel beliefs, including Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. 

Far-left Twitch streamer Hasan Piker has repeatedly criticized Israel.

When reached for comment Saturday, Sam Markstein, Republican Jewish Coalition national political director and spokesman, agreed with Maher and spoke of the GOP as the only party still willing to accommodate Jewish people who are proud of their identity and support of Israel.

“It’s a rare occasion when we agree with Bill Maher, but he’s right: there is only one party where American Jews can be proudly Jewish and loudly pro-Israel, and it’s the Republican Party,” he told Fox News Digital.

“Democrats prove it again and again — from Kamala Harris passing over Josh Shapiro in 2024 to the rise of communist elected officials who traffic in antisemitism in halls of power across the country,” he continued.

“The Democratic Party is being remade by its radicalized base, and party leadership continues to fecklessly whistle past the political graveyard as American Jews flee.”

Fox News Digital reached out to the Democratic National Committee for comment but did not immediately hear back. 

In a heartbreaking incident that spanned three generations, a family in California has been devastated after an alleged act of arson left a father, sister, and her two children dead.

Sergio Ivan Rivera-Vega, aged 32, is facing accusations of deliberately igniting a fire in a Richmond residence on a Tuesday evening. This inferno resulted in the loss of his father Jose Rivera, 47, his five-year-old nephew Andrew, and his niece Joline, who was just two years old.

Maria, the 33-year-old sister of Rivera-Vega and mother to the young victims, sustained severe injuries from the blaze and tragically succumbed later to those injuries.

In the wake of these events, Rivera-Vega has been charged with four counts of murder following the terrifying fire that engulfed their home that fateful night.

The incident has left surviving family members grappling with the profound loss of four beloved relatives and the obliteration of their family abode.

‘My mom and I are heartbroken and overwhelmed trying to process so much loss all at once,’ Rivera-Vega’s sister Evelin Rivera wrote in an GoFundMe page.

‘We urgently need help with funeral services and burial expenses for my dad, my niece, and my nephew.’

The deadly fire was reported at around 9pm on Tuesday with Rivera-Vega identified by police as the person they believe intentionally ignited the blaze.

He was arrested the following day and booked into the Martinez Detention Facility.

Authorities have not publicly revealed what they believe drove him to allegedly set fire to a home containing his own relatives.

Contra Costa County District Attorney Diana Becton described the deaths as a staggering loss made even more difficult to comprehend because of the relationship between the accused man and those who died.

‘This fire is devastating for the entire family,’ Becton said. ‘Knowing the suspect is related to the victims – including two children – makes this loss even harder to comprehend this senseless act.’

The youngest victims were just two and five years old.

Andrew and Joline were Jose Rivera’s grandchildren and Rivera-Vega’s nephew and niece.

By Sunday morning, a fundraiser for funeral and burial costs had collected almost $70,000.

In the online appeal, Rivera-Vega’s younger brother described a family suddenly left without a home and struggling to meet everyday expenses.

‘My mom, siblings and I are heartbroken and overwhelmed trying to process the loss of our loved ones,’ he wrote. ‘We are asking for help with living expenses, after our home was destroyed in that tragic fire.’

He said he was unemployed and struggling to help his surviving relatives pay their basic bills.

‘Any donation or share would mean so much to our family as we try to rebuild our lives.’

As investigators work to establish what led to the fire, relatives have begun describing the family tensions that allegedly preceded it.

Anselmo Rivera, Jose’s brother and Rivera-Vega’s uncle, told KTVU that the accused man had struggled with mental health issues.

He also alleged that Rivera-Vega had made verbal threats against members of the family during the previous month.

Anselmo paid tribute to his brother as a generous, hardworking man who devoted himself to supporting his family.

‘My brother was special… a very nice person,’ Anselmo said. ‘Anybody who come and asks him for something, he always says yes.’

Jose worked hard in construction to provide for those around him, his brother said.

‘I miss him,’ Anselmo said. ‘I feel very bad for him.’

Rivera-Vega was charged Friday by the Contra Costa County District Attorney’s Office with three counts of murder with special enhancements.

His bail was set at $2.5 million and he will be arraigned on Monday.

BROADVIEW, Ill. (WLS) — A close-knit group of family and friends came together in the western suburb of Broadview, in remembrance of Jelani Day, an Illinois graduate student whose mysterious death remains unresolved even after five years since his disappearance.

Monday commemorates the fifth anniversary of the vanishing of Day, a 25-year-old student at Illinois State University. His body was later discovered in the Illinois River, a tragic end to an unsettling case.

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Supporters gathered at the Red Door Meeting Place for the 4th Annual All Black Gala hosted by the Jelani Day Foundation. This event serves as both a tribute to Day and a continual quest for clarity surrounding his untimely death.

During an emotional video presentation, Day’s mother shared poignant reflections on her grief and loss.

“I never envisioned a day without speaking to him. Sending him just two hours away for graduate school, I now find myself unable to speak with him ever again,” she expressed.

Carmen Bolden Day said the annual gathering is focused on keeping her son’s memory alive.

“It’s hard for me to associate the word ‘celebration’ with this because I’m not celebrating anything. What I’m doing is making sure that nobody forgets about Jelani,” she said.

Day disappeared in August 2021. His body was found weeks later in the Illinois River in downstate Peru. The coroner said he drowned, but the manner of his death remains a mystery.

At the event, family members shared memories of Day and the impact of his absence.

“I imagine how you would’ve matured, how you would’ve impacted my life and so many others. I imagine how you would’ve been with our niece. She would love you,” said his sister, Dacara Bolden.

The gala also paid tribute to the late Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr., who joined the Day family’s search for answers early in the case.

Attorney Ben Crump, who also became an early advocate in the family’s efforts, served as the event’s keynote speaker.

“It seems like it was just yesterday, but think about how many young people, especially young people of color, have went missing and there’re still no answers,” Crump said.

Santita Jackson, daughter of Jesse Jackson Sr., praised the family’s perseverance.

“Seeing the Jelani Day family stand together, even as they are grieving, they don’t look like what they’ve been through. And they are empowering the community by telling us to continue the fight,” Jackson said.

The Jelani Day Foundation hosts the annual dinners to raise funds for local families of missing Black and brown persons.

The gathering served as both a tribute to Day and a continued call for answers in the case surrounding his death.

Tragedy struck in Death Valley National Park as a French tourist met a grim end on Monday. Their vehicle, mired in mud on a desolate road, spelled doom amid the punishing heat of the Mojave Desert.

The unfortunate incident involved Pierre Michel Formosa, aged 68, and his companion, both hailing from France. As they found themselves trapped in the isolated expanses of the California desert, the duo made the difficult decision to traverse the salt flats in search of assistance, given there were no other travelers in sight, according to a release by the National Park Service.

On August 17, under the relentless sun with temperatures soaring to a scalding 116 degrees, Formosa’s strength waned after just over a mile of trekking, forcing him to halt.

His determined companion pressed on and eventually stumbled upon a passing motorist who lent a helping hand. Together, they relayed the dire situation at one of the national park’s visitor centers shortly after 2 p.m.

The National Park Service quickly mobilized, with rangers teaming up with local and state first responders. A search and rescue mission was swiftly underway, resulting in the eventual discovery of Formosa.

He was pronounced dead at the scene.

The Inyo County coroner will determine the cause and manner of death, according to the press release.

“Our deepest condolences are with the family and friends of the visitor who died,” Death Valley National Park Superintendent Mike Reynolds said.

 “This is a heartbreaking reminder of how quickly conditions here can turn dangerous. Death Valley is an extraordinary place, but its heat, distances, and remoteness can be dangerous, regardless of experience.”

“We’re grateful to everyone who took part in the search, and our thoughts are with his loved ones,” Reynolds continued.