God help us. Britain is heading towards the eye of an economic storm, with inflation climbing, productivity weak and growth painfully anaemic.

And the man expected to guide the country through it is Andy Burnham. Let us hope he packed his trunks.

The Prime Minister has warned that next month’s Budget will be ‘challenging’, after inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in August. The continuing war in Iran and disruption caused by Houthi rebels in Yemen to shipping routes and pipelines have pushed up oil and gas prices.

Burnham has described the situation as ‘concerning’. Quite. Any self-styled ‘cost-of-living Prime Minister’, especially one who may be nearing an election, should be deeply alarmed.

Tinkering

There is little reason to expect an improvement soon. Energy prices are forecast to jump by 25 per cent by January, and economists warn that could drive inflation above 4 per cent — twice the Bank of England’s target.

Some readers may take comfort from the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the base rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent. They should not be too reassured: markets are already anticipating at least four increases in the months ahead, sharply raising borrowing costs.

The pressure is already evident in government debt markets. On Tuesday, the yield on ten-year gilts — through which the Government borrows money — hit 5.41 per cent, its highest point since 2007. Yields on 30-year gilts reached an intraday high of 5.93 per cent, the highest since 1998.

The result is a rapidly shrinking fiscal buffer. Burnham began with £23billion of headroom to protect the economy against shocks, but now has only £5billion to £10billion left. To restore that room for manoeuvre, the Prime Minister will need to raise at least £11billion.

What does that mean? You guessed it, tax rises. Of course, he and Chancellor John Healey could cut public spending to make up the difference. Don’t hold your breath.

Let’s not forget that this is the same Andy Burnham who this month stood at the despatch box and promised that national security – in the most dangerous period in history since the Second World War – ‘cannot come at the expense of social security’.

That is the behaviour of a minor provincial official, not a national leader. The ex-mayor has been parachuted down from Manchester, and is more interested in tinkering with the cost of a weekly food shop than reckoning with the geopolitical and economic challenges of the day.

The former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane put it best this week: ‘The market now suspects this is a traditional tax-and-spend socialist government with better TikTok videos.’

Haldane was in fact an informal adviser to Burnham on the economy earlier this year. And he is only the latest of the Prime Minister’s former confidants losing faith in him.

Lord (Jim) O’Neill, who advised Burnham on economic affairs in the run-up to the leadership election, has suggested the PM and Healey are failing to control the excesses of public spending.

They’re both entirely right. Burnham will dislike the comparison, but I haven’t seen this level of hubris since Liz Truss.

Our national debt is over £3trillion, taxation is at levels not seen since the days of Clement Attlee and public spending sits at 49.1 per cent of national output or GDP, higher than the average among developed countries.

Rather than confront the problem and take on the most economically harmful influences within his party, Burnham – like Keir Starmer – is sticking to the same dreary socialist formula that has bedevilled Britain since the war (with the happy interlude of Mrs Thatcher).

In fairness to Burnham, the coming inflation is not exclusively his fault. Regrettably for him, the war in Iran and ensuing jump in oil prices will not be stopped by another rendition of The Smiths by the PM near the Ukrainian frontline. 

However, the policies that he has already announced will make life even tougher for British taxpayers. 

Take pensions. Figures this week suggest pensioners will have a £488 rise in their state pension in 2027, taking the yearly payment above £13,000 – above the frozen £12,570 tax-free personal allowance.

Ministers have exempted those whose sole income is the state pension, but millions of retirees with private pensions will be forced to hand back some of their state pension to the Government.

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So that sleight of hand known as fiscal drag will generate an even bigger windfall for the Treasury. 

Where will the revenue from this stealth raid go? To everyone and anyone, it seems: A £2 English ‘bus fare cap’, projected to cost £454million; £340million on a futile attempt to end rough sleeping; billions on Burnham’s planned ‘social housing revolution’.

Yet more cash will be splurged if he brings Thames Water into public ownership. Not to mention his perpetual game of footsie with the so-called Waspi women – those aged 66 to 76 – whose failure to keep up to date with changes to the pension system Burnham has bizarrely said deserves ‘recompense’.

Hubris  

And this is just what we know now. Healey is obviously preparing us for even more tax rises in next month’s Budget. Like his predecessor Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor is crying ignorance, claiming he was unaware of the true scale of Britain’s fiscal malaise before taking the job.

Confronted with all this, you would have thought that the Burnham administration would be desperately looking for savings and cuts, rather than opportunities to spend.

If Burnham is serious about improving our lives, then he would deliver on the promise Starmer failed to keep: delivering economic growth.

That can’t be done without sustainable levels of public spending, a tax system that incentivises ambition and a labour market that facilitates job creation. Drastic improvements can be made in all three areas.

When it comes to public spending, the Office for National Statistics estimates that over half the British population are net recipients of the state, rather than net contributors. 

In the 2025-26 financial year, we are estimated to have spent almost £335billion on social security and welfare benefits – 10.6 per cent of GDP. This can’t go on.

Cliff edges for child benefits and frozen income tax thresholds mean there’s little incentive to go for that next promotion or start a side hustle.

Misguided  

As far as the jobs market is concerned, Labour’s misguided employment rights legislation and National Insurance increases have made businesses think twice about taking on new hires. 

Between 2024 and 2026, the cost of employing a full-time worker on the minimum wage has risen by £3,414 a year due to the cost of these measures.

We at the Prosperity Institute have been working on research that suggests taking the difficult decision of freezing the National Living Wage for five years could create up to 600,000 jobs and add £2.4billion to the Exchequer.

This would be a welcome start, but the Prime Minister would also be advised to face down the eco-zealots in his party and approve the oil and gas fields at Jackdaw and Rosebank, which would both create jobs and shore up our energy security. 

If Burnham was truly committed to saving taxpayers’ cash, he would scrap Net Zero entirely, which we have calculated would save hardworking Britons £40billion every year by the end of the decade.

The humanities graduate Burnham will no doubt know it was Karl Marx who said that history repeats itself, first as tragedy and second as farce. 

Unless Burnham wants to be remembered as a Prime Minister who, like Starmer, merely promised to fix these critical problems in Britain’s economy, he must put ideology to one side, cut spending, reform the tax system and allow businesses to thrive.

• Joseph Dinnage is senior press officer at the Prosperity Institute

The former partner of a woman found dead on a Queensland beach has strongly denied any role in her death, while claiming she was allegedly kidnapped and violently assaulted two years earlier.

Payge Leembruggen, 31, was discovered in sand dunes near North Wall Beach in Mackay at about 8am on Tuesday after a dog walker spotted her body.

The Mt Jukes mother-of-one was last seen on September 11, when her grandfather, David Leembruggen, dropped her at a Mackay hair salon for a 9am appointment.

Queensland Police are treating Ms Leembruggen’s death as suspicious. Her body has been flown to Townsville for an autopsy.

In the days since her death, friends had reportedly speculated that Cris Wilesmith, Ms Leembruggen’s former partner and the father of their autistic son, Nakoa, may have been involved.

However, Mr Wilesmith told the Daily Mail on Thursday that he had no involvement in her death, saying: ‘I would never do that.’

Mr Wilesmith said he had not seen Ms Leembruggen for several years because she had obtained a restraining order against him, which prevented him from being near her or their son.

He said, however, that he was not surprised people had connected him to her death.

‘It’s pretty s***ty, but I guessed people might say that,’ he told the Daily Mail from his home in Finch Hatton, an hour west of Mackay. 

‘If the police want to speak to me, they can. But they haven’t been to see me.’ 

Mr Wilesmith said he had been in Mackay over the weekend, but did not come into contact with his ex, and did not know how she died.

‘The only feeling I have is that she put herself in a situation she could not get out of,’ he said. 

He revealed Ms Leembruggen was the alleged victim of a four-day kidnapping and a serious assault in 2024 in a case which did not involve him and is currently going through court.

Mr Wilesmith said he and Ms Leembruggen were not on good terms and claimed she had refused to pass on his Christmas and birthday gifts to their son.

But he said he was still devastated by her death.

‘It’s terrible, horrible – my son is now growing up without a mother,’ he said.

‘His whole life, he’s going to be motherless. Everyone needs their mum.’

Mr Wilesmith said he now hopes to be reconciled with Nakoa, and would be consulting a lawyer ‘to see what my rights are’.

His mother Nita Harrison, from Cairns, also insisted her son was innocent of any involvement with the tragedy.

‘Payge and Cris absolutely hated each other, but we have nothing to hide,’ she said. ‘I know my son would’ve had nothing to do with it. He was not at all involved.

‘He contacted me yesterday to tell me the news, and he was really upset, more for Nakoa.’

Ms Leembruggen’s grandfather earlier revealed his granddaughter had used ‘ice or meth’ since she was a teenager, and that she had a ‘wonderful technique for finding the wrong friends and men’. 

Ms Harrison said her son met Ms Leembruggen in rehab in Mareeba, west of Cairns, six years ago, and the couple had Nakoa before they separated several years ago.

‘She wasn’t the best at choosing dudes, but she liked to see the best in people,’ said Mr Wilesmith.

Nakoa, who has category three autism and is non-verbal, has not yet been told his mother is dead.

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His great-grandfather confirmed he was now in the care of his grandmother Julia, himself and his wife, Colleen. 

Mystery surrounds what happened to Ms Leembruggen between her hair appointment on Friday and her body being found in the sand dunes on Tuesday. 

Her grandfather told the Mail he was the last family member to see her alive when he drove her from the family’s rural Mt Jukes home to the salon, dropping her off at 9am.

‘She was quite okay,’ he said. ‘I drove her in because she doesn’t have a licence, and said, “Give me a yell when you’re ready to be picked up”.

‘Then she sent me a message saying, “Don’t worry about picking me up, I’ll get my own transport home”.’

He never heard from her again, and found out she was dead when police arrived at the family property on Tuesday morning. 

The Mail previously revealed an associate of Ms Leembruggen had seen a Snapchat from her over the weekend, in which she was dancing with a female friend.

Mr Leembruggen said he had not seen the Snapchat personally, nor did he know where or when it was posted.

‘A family friend contacted us to say they had seen it, but the post, being Snapchat, has disappeared,’ he said.

Mr Leembruggen said the family did not report her missing because it was not out of character for her to vanish for days at a time. 

‘She didn’t mention any plans for the weekend [when I dropped her off]. We were treated a bit like mushrooms [by her] and kept in the dark,’ he said.

‘She often didn’t come home for four or five days. You wouldn’t see her and then she’d come home.’ 

Mr Leembruggen said he had not been told how his granddaughter had died, and said her body had been flown to Townsville for an autopsy.

He said her mother Julia had ‘lost it’ and the family collectively ‘broke down’ when police sat them down at their kitchen table and informed them of the death.

Police are desperate to solve the mystery over her movements between September 11 and 15, and have appealed for locals to assist the investigation.

‘We’re trying to fill a four-day gap at this time and that’s why we’re seeking information from members of the public,’ Mackay Whitsunday District Detective Inspector Emma Novosel said.

‘The area where Payge’s body was located is quite dense and difficult to navigate.’

Detective Inspector Novosel said the autopsy will help determine the cause of death but it was too early to say if Ms Leembruggen died at the beach or her body was moved there.

‘The area where Payge’s body was located is quite dense and difficult to navigate.

‘We always treat an unexplained death as suspicious until proven otherwise,’ she said. ‘Our thoughts are really with the family. We’re assisting them as much as we can.

‘The beach is safe for everyone to use. We’ve got no concerns about the safety of the general public and using that area.’

Ms Leembruggen, about 178cm tall, was last seen wearing a white top, bright red trousers and a red bow in her brown hair.

Do you know more? Email karleigh.smith@dailymail.com.au

READ MORE: Aussie mum’s heartbreaking plea for a fresh start before she was found dead on a Queensland beach 

The family of teenager Charlize Maree Zmuda say they have finally found some measure of closure, 18 months after her devastating shark attack death. A coroner has determined the incident unfolded so rapidly that, by the time Charlize’s friend on the shore realised something was wrong and raised the alarm, it was already too late.

Charlize was swimming at an unpatrolled stretch of Woorim Beach on Bribie Island, in Queensland’s Moreton Bay region, when she was fatally injured in February 2025.

The 17-year-old Bribie Island local was an experienced swimmer and volunteered as a lifeguard.

In findings released this week, Coroner Carol Lee concluded that Charlize was bitten by a bull shark estimated to have measured between 2.5 and 2.9 metres.

The coroner found that a severe bite to the teenager’s upper right arm caused extensive injuries and triggered a fatal air embolism, which blocked her arteries.

“This is a rapidly fatal event and is the most likely mechanism of death,” Ms Lee wrote.

Although the details of Charlize’s injuries have been painful for her parents, Steve and Renee, they said they were comforted to learn their daughter did not endure prolonged suffering.

“As a parent, my biggest fear was that she was screaming in pain, but she wasn’t, it killed her instantly,” Mr Zmuda told the Courier Mail.

‘It gave me a lot of solace to know there was nothing anybody could do.’

His wife added: ‘It was confronting but also a relief because the details of the report confirmed it was very quick.’

At the time of their daughter’s death, the Zmudas issued an emotional appeal to Aussies not to be afraid of the ocean, a message they still stand by.

‘She (Charlize) wouldn’t want this to cause fear because the ocean just gave her so much joy,’ Ms Zmuda said.

‘I think if losing Char has taught us anything, it’s that we only have today, that’s all that’s promised.’

Charlize’s death was so quick that it was too late by the time her friend waiting onshore raised the alarm.

‘Her friend saw a commotion in the water, a quantity of blood, and heard a scream,’ Ms Lee said of the February 3 incident.

‘Charlize was then seen floating on her back with no further signs of movement.’

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An inquest will not be held, as the coroner found that there were ‘appropriate’ safety measures at the beach.

A drone trial ended a day before Charlize’s death, and drumlines had been serviced two days before the incident and were fully operational.

The beach did not have the protective nets used elsewhere under the Queensland government’s shark control program.

However, Ms Lee said shark nets were not suitable for the beach due to the high tidal currents, which tend to twist or drag the nets, rendering them ineffective.

The shark control program ended a trial of surveillance drones at Woorim Beach the day before the incident.

However, 18 baited drumlines were floating between 300 and 350 metres offshore.

Drumlines are used to trap feeding sharks for euthanasia or relocation.

‘In accordance with standard servicing protocols and timeframes, the Woorim Beach drumlines were serviced by a contractor two days before the incident,’ Ms Lee said.

‘All drumlines were baited and found to be operational.’

Only four sharks have been caught in the Woorim Beach drumlines, including two bull sharks, between January 2024 and March 2025.

‘Shark nets and drumlines do not provide an impenetrable barrier,’ Ms Lee said.

The shark control program came under an earlier independent review and underwent substantial reform and investment after Charlize’s death.

‘I am satisfied that an appropriate shark risk mitigation framework is in place in an attempt to reduce the occurrence of shark attack risk at our coastline in the future, with the aim of protection of human life whilst maintaining environmental stewardship,’ Ms Lee said.

Ms Zmuda would like to see the SharkSmart drone technology expanded for all weather conditions and used for longer durations.