European security officials are increasingly alarmed that the continent is falling behind in its efforts to counter Vladimir Putin’s expanding “hybrid” warfare campaign, as Germany opens a sabotage probe after another fire broke out at an electrical substation.
Defence sources cited by the Financial Times said Nato allies in Europe must move quickly to create stronger tools and strategies to blunt what they describe as the Kremlin’s intensifying campaign of disruption against the alliance.
“It is completely clear that we aren’t doing enough to deter sub-Article 5 provocations,” one official told the newspaper, referring to hostile acts that fall below the threshold for Nato’s collective defence clause.
The source added that while Western deterrence has so far been sufficient to prevent Russia from escalating into conventional or nuclear conflict, Europe “really need[s] to rethink” how it responds to hybrid threats.
The warning comes after a blaze damaged a power substation in Berlin on Monday, marking the latest in a series of suspicious incidents affecting critical infrastructure in Germany.
Authorities were investigating whether it was caused by sabotage or a technical fault, German police said.
Meanwhile, police are hunting a suspected militant climate activist accused of a string of attacks on substations across Germany last week that sought to cut supplies from coal-fired power plants.
In the Berlin incident, emergency services were alerted to the blaze in the Moabit area in the early hours.
A burned vehicle sits at a construction site on the ground of a substation on September 7
In the Berlin incident, emergency services were alerted to the blaze in the Moabit area in the early hours
‘A construction site and part of the substation were burning and were damaged by the fire,’ police said, adding there was no disruption to supply.
They were investigating with the help of the grid operator whether the fire was arson or caused by a technical fault.
Attacks on substations took place last week in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia, in the west, and Brandenburg in the east, which did not cause major blackouts but led to temporary shutdowns of some equipment at power plants.
Police are hunting a 48-year-old who has sent letters claiming responsibility for the acts as a protest against the fossil-fuel industry.
Germany has been hit by a number of attacks on the power grid in recent months, with far-left militants claiming responsibility in some cases.
However, authorities are also on alert for Russia-linked sabotage plots.
Last week, Germany formally blamed Russia for an incident involving an explosive-laden drone at a strategic airport last month.
Nato member Germany, which supports Ukraine in its fight against Russia, has long accused Moscow of targeting it with a campaign of hybrid attacks involving espionage and sabotage – charges denied by Russia.
Germany has for months reported suspicious drone sightings over military and industrial sites, but the Leipzig incident on the night of August 4 raised the alarm as a drone found there carried explosives.
Police used a robot to defuse the device found near a Ukrainian cargo plane, and another drone was reportedly found weeks later near the airport, also with traces of an explosive substance.
The airport in eastern Germany plays a key role in the transport of military goods, including by the German military and Nato allies, and also serves as a base for Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz later said Germany had increasingly ‘found itself in the crosshairs of hybrid attackers’.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius earlier warned that the Kremlin is particularly focused on his country.
And German MP Roderich Kiesewetter said: ‘We will also probably see the announcement of killings against high representatives of our armaments industry.’
In recent weeks, Russia has launched a new wave of attacks targeting European defence manufacturers, using local criminals to carry out acts of sabotage, according to Western intelligence sources.
Officials believe the attacks have been carefully calibrated to stop short of triggering Article 5, Nato’s mutual defence clause.
‘We are clearly seeing a manifestation of Russia’s increased risk tolerance and recklessness,’ said a senior official from a Nato frontline state, citing ‘unprecedented levels’ of Russian activity.
Speaking to the FT, Keir Giles, associate fellow at Chatham House, added: ‘I don’t think Russia’s objectives and targets [in Europe] have changed.’
An explosive-disposal robot deployed near a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 5
Moscow has already been accused of waging a shadow war across Europe
‘The change is with [us], the victim. The problem is that what counts as Article 5 has a fuzzy boundary,’ said Giles. ‘For as long as that boundary is unset, Russia can keep on expanding it. If we don’t demonstrate a cost, then they will keep on pushing.’
Moscow has already been accused of waging a shadow war across Europe through sabotage, cyber attacks, drones, disinformation and intimidation – tactics designed to cause disruption while staying below the threshold for a military response.
Russian cyber units have targeted critical systems including power plants since at least the mid-2010s.
On the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a cyber attack against the Viasat satellite internet system caused outages across central and eastern Europe. The EU, US and UK later condemned the attack as Russian.
Nordic and Baltic countries have also recently reported increased GPS jamming and spoofing since 2022, affecting civilian aircraft, ships and drones.
British spy chief Anne Keast-Butler has warned that the UK and its allies now occupy ‘a space between peace and war’, with Russian activity stretching ‘from the seabed to cyberspace’.
And security experts have told UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham to be prepared for a ‘direct response’ from Putin following his declaration of Britain’s ‘unwavering’ support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces.
Former British Army commander Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon warned: ‘Putin is fighting for his political survival. Russia is building bases specifically to launch drones into Nato territory.
‘The assumption that Putin is too committed to Ukraine to contemplate opening another front is clearly wrong.
‘Russia is stepping up its hybrid war against the West. Britain and her allies are experiencing espionage, sabotage and other malign activities. Much of this activity is never publicised as it is thwarted by our outstanding security services.
‘The grey zone attacks may be a precursor for a direct attack, perhaps in the Baltics or along the Lithuania-Polish border. While Latvia and Estonia present tempting targets.
‘Putin may be bluffing. He may neither have the capability nor the appetite for a wider war. But if there is even a chance that he is preparing to test Nato, Europe cannot afford to discover the answer the hard way.’
